Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s): Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kaoshsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States
Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s): Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Canada
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Greenland probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
probability for TS is 80% currently Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W) probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the United States probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Canada probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Greenland probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W) probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W) probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W) probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W) probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W) probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W) probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W) probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W) probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W) probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W) probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W) probability for TS is 85% currently Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W) probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W) probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W) probability for TS is 60% currently Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W) probability for TS is 55% currently Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W) probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained. For graphical forecast information and further details please visithttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN THE SUMMARY SECTION
...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE
UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND
MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE
TO PORTERS LAKE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY
AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05
INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States
Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the United States probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours probability for TS is 100% currently New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 21 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Canada probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours Greenland probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W) probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W) probability for TS is 100% currently Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W) probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W) probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W) probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W) probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W) probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W) probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W) probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W) probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W) probability for TS is 65% currently Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W) probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained. For graphical forecast information and further details please visithttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
CENTER OF IRENE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 800 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 76.5W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE INTERESTS IN NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF IRENE MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 730 AM EDT...1130 UTC. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF IRENE AT LANDFALL WAS 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CATEGORY ONE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 84 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 954.0 MB...28.17 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. (NOAA)
RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States and Canada
Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the United States probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Canada probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours probability for TS is 100% currently Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 45 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W) probability for TS is 100% currently Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W) probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W) probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W) probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W) probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W) probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W) probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained. For graphical forecast information and further details please visithttp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances
Londen time 
