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| GUSTAV MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA |
| Friday, August 29, 2008 |
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
...GUSTAV MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 25 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 310
MILES...505 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHILE GUSTAV CROSSES
JAMAICA...BUT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N...76.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov |
posted by moderator  Londen time 12:01 AM |
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| Tropical Storm GUSTAV strike forecast and probability 8 |
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Tropical Storm GUSTAV is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Jamaica
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 80% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kingston (18.0 N, 76.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Cayman Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Montego Bay (18.5 N, 77.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours
Nueva Gerona (21.9 N, 82.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
George Town (19.3 N, 81.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
Pinar Del Rio (22.4 N, 83.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
Havana (23.0 N, 82.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
Baton Rouge (30.5 N, 91.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT |
| posted by moderator Londen time 12:01 AM |
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| HANNA STRUGGLING AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD |
| Thursday, August 28, 2008 |
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST THU AUG 28 2008
...HANNA STRUGGLING AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND BE CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.7 N...60.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov |
| posted by moderator Londen time 9:43 PM |
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| Gulf storm stirs fears of oil production problems |
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WASHINGTON -- Oil prices rose for a third consecutive day Wednesday as Tropical Storm Gustav posed the biggest threat to Gulf Coast energy production since hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit in 2005.
The price gains and worries about refinery outages likely will lead to an increase in retail gasoline price as Americans hit the road for the long Labor Day weekend.
"Between now and Monday, it's clearly going higher," said Tom Kloza, Oil Price Information Service chief oil analyst. The price at the pump could rise as much as a dime a gallon over the weekend, depending on Gustav's path in the next few days, he said.
Gasoline prices have dropped this month in response to lower demand and oil costs, but the pace of the decline has slowed in recent days. The nationwide average for a gallon of regular was $3.667 Wednesday, down less than a penny from Tuesday and off 45 cents from the record set July 17, according to AAA. In Indianapolis, the average dropped to $3.719 from Tuesday's $3.764.
Although oil prices are off more than $27 from the record hit in early July, they have risen $3.56 this week and are up 64 percent from a year ago. The price of a barrel of crude oil trading for delivery in October rose $1.88 to $118.15 Wednesday. Natural gas prices also rose.
Energy prices are climbing as Gustav is expected to gain strength and become a hurricane. It now is aimed at the central Gulf Coast, home to approximately a fifth of U.S. oil and natural gas production, says Kenneth Medlock, a fellow in energy studies at Rice University.
That's the same area hit in 2005 by Katrina and Rita, which led to declines in offshore production and destruction at onshore refineries.
"The potential for long-term damage is enormous," Medlock said.
Oil companies were evacuating some employees from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell said it planned to remove about 300 of its 1,400 workers in the area.
In the last three years, oil companies have made changes to try to minimize the impact of hurricanes on production and refining, such as bolstering backup electricity generation and finding ways to better protect equipment, said Sara Banaszak, an economist with the American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group.
"There will be some damage, but I don't think you'll see near the problems that we had" in 2005 if a similar storm hits, said Bruce Bullock, who is director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University.
indystar.com |
| posted by moderator Londen time 7:26 PM |
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| GUSTAV POURING HEAVY RAINS OVER JAMAICA |
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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
...GUSTAV POURING HEAVY RAINS OVER JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA OR NEAR LATITUDE 17.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...EAST OF
KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME TODAY AS IT MOVES
NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING GUSTAV.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TODAY...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N...76.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/ |
| posted by moderator Londen time 7:08 PM |
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| Louisiana Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Possible Hurricane |
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The governor of the U.S. Gulf coast state of Louisiana, Bobby Jindal, has declared a state of emergency as weather forecasters warn Tropical Storm Gustav will head for the Gulf Coast.
Forecasters said Thursday that Gustav could strengthen to a category three hurricane with winds of 180 kilometers per hour in the next several days. The National Hurricane Center predicts the storm to hit between the state of Texas and the state of Florida Tuesday morning.
Friday is the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the city of New Orleans, killing hundreds and causing more than $100 billion in damage.
With the devastation of Katrina still fresh on their minds, U.S. officials are already preparing emergency help for gulf coast residents. Evacuations of the elderly and bed-ridden from New Orleans could begin as early as Friday.
If Gustav strengthens to a category three or more, officials will order a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans 60 hours before predicted landfall. Officials say there are plans to evacuate 30,000 people by bus and train.
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin cut short his attendance at this week's Democratic National Convention in the city of Denver, Colorado to return home and work on storm preparations.
Governor Jindal is scheduled to attend the Republican National Convention in the state of Minnesota next week but his office says he will not make a final decision on his plans until more information on Gustav becomes available.
voanews |
| posted by moderator Londen time 6:54 PM |
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| Powerful quake rocks Vancouver Island |
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WASHINGTON - A 6.1 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Canada's Vancouver Island Thursday, the U.S. Geological Survey said.
The quake was felt at 5:37 a.m. and was centered 155 kilometres west-southwest of Port Hardy, British Columbia, and 293 miles west-northwest of the city of Vancouver.
The USGS said the quake was reported at a depth of 10 kilometres. No tsunami warning was issued.
canada.com |
| posted by moderator Londen time 6:24 PM |
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| Docters Without Borders. |
MSF (Doctors without Borders) has been working in Myanmar since 1992. Today, 38 international staff and 1,200 national employees are working in different projects in seven areas of the country.
Rangoon, Rakhine state, Shan state en in Kachin state.
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