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  • RED ALERT!!!: Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) for Taiwan
    Sunday, August 28, 2011

    Typhoon NANMADOL (14W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        Taiwan
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
            probability for TS is 100% currently
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

        Kaoshsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
            probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

    Note that
        Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
        CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
        TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:44 PM  
    RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States

    Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        the United States
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
            probability for TS is 100% currently
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
        New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
            probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        Canada
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
        Greenland
            probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
        Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
        Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

        Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours

            probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
        Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
        Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours

            probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
        Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
            probability for TS is 100% currently
        Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
        Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
            probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

        Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
            probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

        Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
            probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

        Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
            probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
        Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

        Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
            probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

        Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
            probability for TS is 80% currently
        Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
            probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours

        Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
            probability for TS is 60% currently


    Note that
        Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
        Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
        CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
        TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:37 PM  
    RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States
    Saturday, August 27, 2011

    Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        the United States
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
            probability for TS is 100% currently
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
        Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
            probability for TS is 100% currently
        New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        Canada
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
        Greenland
            probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
        Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
        Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
            probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
        Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
            probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
        Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
            probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
        Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
        Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
        Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
            probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
        Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
            probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
        Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
            probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
        Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
            probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
        Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
            probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
        Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
            probability for TS is 85% currently
        Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
            probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
        Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
            probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
        Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
            probability for TS is 60% currently
        Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
            probability for TS is 55% currently
        Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
            probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

    Note that
        Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
        Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
        CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
        TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:22 PM  
    IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
    HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A...CORRECTED
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
    200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

    CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN THE SUMMARY SECTION

    ...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W
    ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE
    UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND
    MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE
    TO PORTERS LAKE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
    MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
    SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
    YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
    AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
    * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
    * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
    INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
    * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    IRENE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
    NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
    EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
    CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
    AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
    MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
    SUNDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH
    CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE
    STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
    APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.

    IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
    OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
    STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND
    GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
    CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY
    AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN
    AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05
    INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
    MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
    TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
    SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
    BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
    GROUND-LEVEL.

    STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
    LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
    HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
    AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
    AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
    FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
    INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
    TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
    LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
    NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND
    RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
    AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
    LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

    RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
    6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES...FROM
    EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
    INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...
    COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE
    WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND
    SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

    SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
    COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
    VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
    THROUGH THIS EVENING.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:10 PM  
    RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States

    Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        the United States
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
            probability for TS is 100% currently
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
        Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 9 hours
            probability for TS is 100% currently
        New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
        Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        Canada
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
        Greenland
            probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
        Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
            probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
        Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
            probability for TS is 100% currently
        Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
        Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
        Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
        Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
            probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
        Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
            probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
        Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
        Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
            probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
        Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
            probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
        Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
            probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
        Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
        Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
            probability for TS is 85% in about 69 hours
        Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
            probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
        Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
            probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
        Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
            probability for TS is 65% currently
        Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
            probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

    Note that
        Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
        Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
        CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
        TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:43 PM  
    Latest satellite images






    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:20 PM  
    Latest Trackmaps Hurricane Irene






    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:53 PM  
    CENTER OF IRENE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
    HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
    800 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

    ...CENTER OF IRENE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
    CAROLINA...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...34.7N 76.5W
    ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
    ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
    MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
    SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
    YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
    AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
    * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
    * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

    INTERESTS IN NEW BRUNSWICK AND NOVA SCOTIA CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF IRENE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF IRENE
    MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 730 AM
    EDT...1130 UTC. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF IRENE AT LANDFALL WAS
    85 MPH...140 KM/H...CATEGORY ONE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
    WIND SCALE. 

    AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
    CAROLINA TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
    MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
    SUNDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES
    EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
    HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW
    ENGLAND.

    HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
    260 MILES...415 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 84
    MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR
    FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. 
    A COASTAL MARINE OBSERVING SITE AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
    RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 954.0 MB...28.17 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
    MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
    EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD
    NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY. 
    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

    STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
    LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
    HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
    AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
    AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
    FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
    INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
    TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
    LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
    VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

    RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
    6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
    EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
    INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS
    COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

    SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
    COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
    NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
    (NOAA)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:28 PM  
    RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States and Canada

    Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        the United States
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
            probability for TS is 100% currently
        Canada
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours
            probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
        New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
        Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours
            probability for TS is 100% currently
        Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 45 hours
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
        Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours
        Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
        Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours
            probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
        Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours
            probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
        Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
            probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
        Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
            probability for TS is 100% currently
        Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
            probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
        Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
            probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
        Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
            probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
            probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
        Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
            probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
        Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
            probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
        Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
            probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
        Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
            probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
        Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
            probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

    Note that
        Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
        Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
        CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
        TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:02 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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