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| ANDRES IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... |
| Wednesday, June 24, 2009 |
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES NO LONGER HAS THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF ANDRES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND
ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.5N 107.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN |
posted by moderator  Londen time 10:03 PM |
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| Tropical Storm NANGKA forecast and strike probability |
| Tuesday, June 23, 2009 |
Tropical Storm NANGKA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for TS is 70% currently
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
Storm Alert issued at 23 Jun, 2009 18:00 GMT |
| posted by moderator Londen time 10:13 PM |
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| RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ANDRES IS A HURRICANE |
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HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ANDRES IS A HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN TELMO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 130
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...ANDRES WILL CONTINUE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY.
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR
75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH ANDRES HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY...WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.6N 105.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$FORECASTER BROWN
http://hurricanes.gov |
| posted by moderator Londen time 10:00 PM |
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| Tropical depression forms in Pacific off Mexico |
| Sunday, June 21, 2009 |
MEXICO CITY – Forecasters say a tropical depression has formed in the Pacific Ocean off the southern coast of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the center of the depression was located about 200 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, at 2 p.m. PDT Sunday. The system is moving to the west near 7 mph and has maximum sustained winds of around 35 mph.
The system could bring heavy rainfall to southwestern areas of the country over the next two days, but the center of the depression is currently forecast to remain offshore.
The system is expected to strengthen and could become a tropical storm Sunday night.
ap |
| posted by moderator Londen time 10:34 PM |
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| DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC |
| Thursday, May 28, 2009 |
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND
ABOUT 565 MILES...905 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/HR...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE OVER COLDER
WATERS BY SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.7N 69.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN |
| posted by moderator Londen time 11:01 PM |
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| Cyclone Aila kills nearly 120 in Bangladesh, India |
| Tuesday, May 26, 2009 |
DHAKA (Reuters) - Nearly 120 people have been killed by a cyclone that ripped through Bangladesh and eastern India, officials and local media said on Tuesday, while millions remained marooned by floodwaters or living in shelters.
The death toll in Bangladesh rose to at least 89 following recovery of more bodies on Tuesday, the Daily Star newspaper said in its online edition, while Indian officials said at least 29 people had died in West Bengal state.
Cyclone Aila slammed into parts of coastal Bangladesh and eastern India on Monday, triggering tidal surges and flooding that forced half a million people from their homes.
Officials in Bangladesh moved about 500,000 people to temporary shelters after they left their homes to escape huge tidal waves churned by winds up to 100 kph (60 mph).
Heavy rain triggered by the storm also raised river levels and burst mud embankments in the Sundarbans delta in the neighboring eastern Indian state of West Bengal.
The affected area is home to hundreds of thousands of people as well as the world's biggest tiger reserve.
In Bangladesh, the worst affected area was the Satkhira district, near the port of Mongla, where a local official said 17 bodies were found in one village.
"The situation here is alarming, and the confirmed death toll so far in the district is 23. But it may go up," Mohammad Abdus Samad, deputy commissioner of Satkhira, told Reuters by telephone.
Aila swept many areas still recovering from Cyclone Sidr in November 2007, which killed 3,500 people in Bangladesh and made at least a million homeless.
MISSING
Bangladesh officials said at least 100 people were missing after Monday's cyclone.
Some aid workers, requesting not to be identified, said they feared several hundred people might have been killed by Aila, which followed a less lethal cyclone, Bijli, that killed only a few people in April.
Army, navy and coast guards were helping civil officials and volunteers to search for the missing and pick up people marooned in hundreds of villages, caught in chest or shoulder-high waters, witnesses said.
In West Bengal, the Indian army and government aid workers on Tuesday began an operation to provide relief to more than 400,000 people marooned in the Sundarbans delta region.
Officials in West Bengal said at least 29 people died in the cyclone, mostly from house collapses, electrocution and falling trees.
"We have moved two columns, each with 100 personnel, to Sundarbans for relief," said Mahesh Upasani, a defense spokesman.
Large areas of crops were destroyed in both countries by the cyclone, officials said, adding they were assessing the damage.
Cargo handling at Paradeep port in India's eastern state of Orissa returned to normal after being severely affected for the past two days, K.Raghuramaiah, chairman of Paradeep Port Trust, told Reuters.
Many farmers have lost their rice just ready to be harvested. "Allah has taken it (rice and other crops) all from me. I have been made a pauper," said Mohar Ali, a farmer.
(Additional reporting by Serajul Islam Quadir, Ruma Paul and Nizam Ahmed in DHAKA, Sujoy Dhar in KOLKATA and Jatindra Dash in BHUBANESWAR; Editing by Alex Richardson) |
| posted by moderator Londen time 11:24 AM |
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| Tropical Storm AILA forecast and strike probability |
| Monday, May 25, 2009 |
Tropical Storm AILA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Bangladesh
probability for TS is 80% currently
India
probability for TS is 80% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Rajshahi (24.4 N, 88.6 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
Storm Alert issued at 25 May, 2009 18:00 GMT (Final Warning) |
| posted by moderator Londen time 10:14 PM |
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| India Meteorological Department :Cyclone warning for West Bengal and North Orissa coasts |
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The India Meteorological Department has warned that the cyclonic storm “AILA” is likely to intensify further and move in a near northerly direction and cross West Bengal coast near longitude 88.00 E (near Sagar Island) today, the 25th May 2009 afternoon/evening.
Gale wind speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting 100 kmph likely along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts which may increase from today noon to 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph along and off these coasts during next 18 hours. Sea condition will be very high along and off West Bengal and north Orissa coasts during the same period.
Storm surge of about 2-3 meters above astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of south 24-Pargana and Midnapur districts of West Bengal at the time of landfall.
Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts, minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees and flooding of escape routs over coastal districts of West Bengal and north Orissa are expected.
IMD has advised total suspension of fishing operations and suggested moving the Coastal hutment dwellers to safer places. People in affected areas are also advised to remain indoors.
The system over northwest & adjoining central Bay of Bengal intensified further, moved northwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today over northwest Bay of Bengal near lat. 20.50 N and long. 88.00 E, about 140 km east-southeast of Chandbali, 130 km south of Sagar Island and 280 km southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
Based on latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
pib.nic.in |
| posted by moderator Londen time 1:39 PM |
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| Normal life hit by heavy rains as cyclone pounds Orissa |
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Normal life was disrupted in several parts of coastal Orissa as heavy rains accompanied by high-velocity wind pounded many areas on Monday under the impact of a cyclonic storm.
Low-lying areas were inundated in coastal districts like Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak and Balasore districts due to incessant rains since Sunday, damaging around 400 thatched huts, sources said adding no loss of life has been reported so far.
A large number of trees was uprooted and branches broken in Jagatsinghpur and Cuttack districts as gale with speed up to 100 kmph swept the coast, blocking several roads and disrupting vehicular movement.
Water logging also affected road traffic in several places in Cuttack, Paradip and Jagatsinghpur, giving a tough time to office goers, they said adding electricity supply was also hit in many places.
In the capital city of Bhubanesawar, power supply was disrupted for about seven hours in several localities including Bapuji Nagar, Ashok Nagar, Patia, Chandrasekharpur and Jayadev Vihar this morning.
Many parts of Balasore district also remained without electricity for over eight hours, sources said.
Low lying areas of Cuttack like Sutahat, Friends Colony, Patapola and Police Colony were flooded due to incessant rainfall.
The cyclonic storm 'Aila' over Bay of Bengal, which lay about 140 km east of Paradip, is likely to intensify further and move in northerly direction and cross West Bengal coast shortly.
Under its impact, heavy to very heavy rainfall was experienced at some places in coastal Orissa as areas like Ersama, Balikuda and Biridi and the port town of Paradip in Jagatsinghpur district were severely affected.
About 1000 hectares of agricultural land with standing crops in Ersama area was submerged as high to very high waves lashed the Orissa coast.
Cyclone shelter centres were opened at several places in Jagatsinghpur district to enable people from low lying areas to take refuge.
The weather office advised suspension of fishing operation asking fishermen not to venture into the sea, while danger signals were hoisted at Chandbali, Paradip, Gopalpur and Puri.
Steps were initiated to remove uprooted trees blocking roads in order to ensure early restoration of normal vehicular movement.
hindustantimes |
| posted by moderator Londen time 1:34 PM |
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