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  • Tropical Storm HIGOS forecast and strike probability 2H
    Tuesday, September 30, 2008
    Tropical Storm HIGOS is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines

    probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
    probability for TS is 80% currently
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:35 PM  
    LAURA EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON
    TROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
    500 PM AST TUE SEP 30 2008

    ...LAURA EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON...

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 375
    MILES...605 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

    LAURA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
    EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS. LAURA WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT
    AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON WEDNESDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...42.3 N...48.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:31 PM  
    Tropical storm Laura begins to scare experts



    Laura has already formed and gained strength. Tropical storm Laura is forecast to strike Scotland at about 04:00 GMT on 5 October. This is alarming since peace and tranquil is what residents want, but news of hurricanes seem to wreak havoc in homes and companies due to destruction and extreme financial crisis arising due to these pitfalls. US National Hurricane Center has supplied data that indicate that the point of landfall will be near 57.7 N, 8.2 W. Laura’s forecast shows that, the tropical storm will bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 92 km/h (57 mph). The speed and the strength of the wind are projected to be extremely high. Experts in the National Hurricane center project that these wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher. According to officials at the National Hurricane Center, Laura is an “extremely dangerous” storm.

    thaindian.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:43 PM  
    Kyle adds to weird season
    By Charles Elmore

    Kyle caused the first hurricane watch in Maine in 17 years over the weekend as it passed by on the way to soak Canada.

    But Kyle is hardly out of a place in a year that has seen storms breaking through the usual boundaries on the calendar and the map.

    The season began with Tropical Storm Arthur, the first tropical storm to form during the month of May since 1981. It killed five and caused $78 million in damage in Central America. Later, Fay became the first named storm to make landfall in Florida four times.

    palmbeachpost.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:37 PM  
    Tropical storm kills 3 in central Vietnam
    HANOI, Vietnam (AP) -- Tropical Storm Mekkhala slammed into central Vietnam on Tuesday, killing three people and leaving 10 others missing, disaster officials said.

    A 9-year-old girl and her 7-year-old brother were swept away while crossing a stream in Quang Binh province, said disaster official Nguyen Ngoc Dien. Three other people were missing elsewhere in the province, he said.

    In neighboring Ha Tinh province, a man died when he was blown off the roof of his home while trying to reinforce it during the storm. Two teenagers in the province were missing after being swept away while crossing a stream, said disaster official Le Dinh Son.

    In Quang Tri province, five people were reported missing.

    The storm arrived as people in northern Vietnam were still cleaning up following Typhoon Hagupit, which killed 41 people last week and caused damage estimated at US$65 million.

    Mekkhala, packing winds of 55 miles per hour (88 kilometers per hour), blew tin roofs off houses in Quang Binh province, Dien said, adding that power blackouts were reported in the provincial capital Dong Hoi.

    Tran Minh Ky, vice governor of Ha Tinh province, said 10,000 people in coastal villages had earlier been evacuated. However, some began returning to their homes Tuesday afternoon as the storm moved into Laos and rains stopped, said Son.

    Rescue workers in northern Son La province are still struggling to reach isolated villages devastated by floods triggered by Typhoon Hagupit.

    Vietnam is prone to floods and storms that kill hundreds of people each year.

    Hagupit killed 17 people and left six missing in the Guangxi region of southern China last week, the official Xinhua News Agency reported in a story posted Tuesday. Nearly 700,000 people there were evacuated after heavy rains and flooding destroyed or damaged tens of thousands of homes.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:53 PM  
    Tropical Storm JANGMI forecast and strike probability 9J (Final Warning)
    Tropical Storm JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
    probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:41 PM  
    Tropical Storm JANGMI forecast and strike probability 8J
    Tropical Storm JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan

    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Saga (33.0 N, 133.0 E)
    probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:03 PM  
    Tropical Storm LAURA forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Storm LAURA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
    probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours
    Ireland
    probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours
    Northern Ireland
    probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Ardara
    (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 117 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 117 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:54 PM  
    LAURA BECOMES TROPICAL...BUT NOT FOR LONG
    TROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
    1100 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2008

    ...LAURA BECOMES TROPICAL...BUT NOT FOR LONG...

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST OR ABOUT 435
    MILES...700 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

    LAURA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. LAURA
    CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
    EXPECTED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS...AND LAURA COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY WEDNESDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...41.2 N...48.8 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:08 PM  
    Tropical Storm HIGOS forecast and strike probability 1H
    Tropical Storm HIGOS is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines

    probability for TS is 90% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Oras
    (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 30 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:02 PM  
    Tropical Storm MEKKHALA forecast and strike probability 1M
    Monday, September 29, 2008
    Tropical Storm MEKKHALA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with your requested change(s).

    To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with "unsubscribe" in your email subject line.

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:57 AM  
    SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA FORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
    SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
    500 AM AST MON SEP 29 2008

    ...SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA FORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1015
    MILES...1635 KM...WEST OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES.

    THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
    TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. LAURA IS NOT FORECAST TO
    AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS...AND THE SYSTEM IS ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING
    INTERESTS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
    AND LAURA COULD TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND
    POSSIBLY BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

    WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310 MILES...500 KM FROM THE
    CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...37.2 N...47.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:53 AM  
    Tropical Storm JANGMI forecast and strike probability 7J
    Tropical Storm JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Taiwan
    probability for TS is 55% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
    probability for TS is 75% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 29 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:52 AM  
    KYLE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT PASSES NOVA SCOTIA
    TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    1100 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

    ...KYLE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT PASSES NOVA SCOTIA...

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

    AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST
    OF MAINE IS DISCONTINUED.

    THE HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
    YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK OVERNIGHT.


    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...60
    KM...SOUTH OF SAINT JOHN NEW BRUNSWICK.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/HR. A MOTION TO
    THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AT
    A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...TAKING THE REMNANTS OF KYLE OVER EASTERN
    NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT.

    ALTHOUGH KYLE IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT CONTINUES TO
    PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
    NEXT DAY OR SO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

    ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
    EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
    ARE POSSIBLE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH
    MONDAY MORNING.

    TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
    THE BAY OF FUNDY...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
    WAVES....WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NOVA
    SCOTIA.

    REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...44.8 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

    THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
    FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

    $$
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:46 AM  
    Typhoon JANGMI forecast and strike probability 6J
    Sunday, September 28, 2008
    Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenling
    (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
    probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:57 PM  
    KYLE APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA...ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
    HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    500 PM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

    ...KYLE APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA...ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL
    CHARACTERISTICS...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF DIGBY...
    YARMOUTH...AND SHELBURNE IN SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA...AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
    NOVA SCOTIA.


    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF KYLE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
    225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
    ABOUT 180 MILES...290 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...
    AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
    SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
    OF KYLE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND
    OVER OR NEAR NEW BRUNSWICK AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND EARLY MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KYLE IS
    EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
    MILES...370 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

    RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
    ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF MAINE...NEW
    BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
    MORNING.

    TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
    THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
    WAVES....ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND
    AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...42.7 N...66.1 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:34 PM  
    Hurricane KYLE forecast and strike probability 2K
    Hurricane KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlottetown
    (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:16 PM  
    Taiwan braces for Typhoon Jangmi
    Taiwan has evacuated landslide-prone villages and cancelled many flights as Typhoon Jangmi roared towards the island bringing torrential rains and winds of up to 227kph.

    The usually bustling capital of Taipei was quiet on Sunday morning after residents had boarded up windows and taken refuge before the storm arrived.

    "The storm's fringes are covering most of Taiwan, and is gaining strength," Wu Teh-rong, a meteorologist with the Central Weather Bureau, said.

    The weather bureau said that the centre of Jangmi was about 120km southeast of Hualien in eastern Taiwan on Sunday morning and would likely make landfall in the evening.

    Jangmi is the fourth typhoon to hit Taiwan this year, and is likely to be the most powerful, according to the bureau.

    'Super torrential rains'

    Local CTI Television showed villagers leaving the mountain resort of Lushan in central Taiwan, which was badly damaged when Typhoon Sinlaku hit two weeks ago, with massive mudslides destroying at least three hotels.

    The weater bureau has warned of "super torrential rains" in several mountainous areas.

    Taiwan's China Airlines and EVA Airways said several flights to Asia were cancelled or rescheduled for Monday. China's Southern and Hainan Airlines cancelled their flights to the island from Beijing and Shanghai.

    After hitting Taiwan, the typhoon was expected to weaken but still carry on northwest to China's Fujian province.

    Typhoons frequently hit Taiwan between July and October, causing flash floods and deadly landslides. Typhoon Sinlaku earlier this month killed 12 people and left 10 others missing.

    aljazeera.net
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:40 PM  
    Over 180,000 were injured, sickened by flooding
    (BangkokPost.com) - The Ministry of Public Health reported that 18 people died and more than 180,000 were injured or sickened from the flood disaster in the last 17 days.

    According to Public Health spokesman Suphan Srithamma, the flood situation in 24 provinces are alleviating, but the five provinces of Phitsanulok, Lop Buri, Ayutthaya, Khon Kaen and Prachin Buri still need close attention.

    He said the Public Health Ministry is aiding the people who fell ill in the flood-hit areas while preventing water borne diseases such as diarrhea, leptospirosis, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and hepatitis B from spreading.

    Md Suphan said more than 70 mobile medical teams under the royal patronage of His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn were dispatched to treat the flood victims from September 11 to 27. 2008. A total of 189,513 people were treated, and 41,181 of those suffered from rashes. 24,561 contracted fever and 10,019 had pains and aches from evacuating and transporting their belongings to higher grounds.

    133,500 sets of medical supplies were given to people residing in flooded areas. On Sunday 18,500 additional medical supplies were sent to Phichit, Ang Thong, Nonthaburi and Nahkon Sawan provinces.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:13 PM  
    Typhoon JANGMI latest satellite image and forecastmaps

    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:29 PM  
    Hurricane KYLE forecast and strike probability 1K
    Hurricane KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Canada
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
    probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:20 PM  
    KYLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BUT IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS
    HURRICANE KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    800 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

    ...KYLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE BUT IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS...

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
    STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
    EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
    FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN
    NOVA SCOTIA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH
    OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA.
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
    NOVA SCOTIA.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 165
    MILES...265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
    ABOUT 440 MILES...710 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39
    KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
    NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO
    PASS EAST OF CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS AND THE COAST OF MAINE LATER
    TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
    TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
    THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KYLE IS APPROACHING COLDER WATERS AND
    WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE
    TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
    PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

    TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
    THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
    WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
    CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

    RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
    ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
    STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
    THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...39.3 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:17 PM  
    Typhoon JANGMI forecast and strike probability 5J
    Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei
    (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenling
    (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Ningbo (29.7 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:10 PM  
    KYLE HEADING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GULF OF MAINE
    HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    500 AM AST SUN SEP 28 2008

    ...KYLE HEADING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GULF OF MAINE...

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
    STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
    EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA CANADA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE
    FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERN
    NOVA SCOTIA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTH
    OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND AREA.
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
    NOVA SCOTIA.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED BY
    AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
    LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
    335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 405
    MILES...655 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
    MASSACHUSETTS ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINE AND THE
    CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
    NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

    TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
    THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
    WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
    CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

    RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
    ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
    STATES...NEW BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
    THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...38.4 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:57 PM  
    KYLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PART OF THE COAST OF MAINE
    HURRICANE KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    500 PM AST SAT SEP 27 2008

    ...KYLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A
    PART OF THE COAST OF MAINE...

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE FROM
    STONINGTON EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
    THE COAST OF MAINE FROM PORT CLYDE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT. A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINE
    SOUTH OF PORT CLYDE TO CAPE ELIZABETH...INCLUDING THE PORTLAND
    AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
    REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA...AND FOR
    SOUTHWESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.

    AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS DISCONTINUED
    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
    MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OF KYLE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KYLE WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
    505 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 485 MILES...780 KM...
    SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
    TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON
    THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
    EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KYLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
    DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 995
    MB...29.38 INCHES.

    TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS IN
    THE BAY OF FUNDY...AND ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
    WAVES....ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
    CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.

    RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
    ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...NEW
    BRUNSWICK...NOVA SCOTIA...AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY
    MORNING.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N...69.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:00 AM  
    Latest extreme Typhoon "JANGMI" satellite Image and forecast map
    Saturday, September 27, 2008

    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:39 AM  
    CENTER OF KYLE WOBBLING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
    TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    500 PM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

    ...CENTER OF KYLE WOBBLING AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
    MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST OR ABOUT 400
    MILES...645 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
    THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...
    FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT OR
    SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
    ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
    HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

    RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
    SATURDAY.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...27.6 N...68.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:18 AM  
    Typhoon JANGMI forecast and strike probability 4J
    Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.


    Storm Alert issued at 26 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:05 AM  
    AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND THE CENTER OF KYLE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST
    Friday, September 26, 2008
    TROPICAL STORM KYLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    200 PM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

    ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND THE CENTER OF KYLE A LITTLE
    FARTHER TO THE EAST...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
    MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT
    445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
    THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
    EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE AND THE
    STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS...AND KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
    AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1000 MB...29.52 INCHES.

    RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THROUGH
    SATURDAY.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...26.9 N...68.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN

    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:05 PM  
    Typhoon JANGMI forecast and strike probability 3J
    Typhoon JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung
    (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours


    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines

    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T'aichung
    (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 26 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:41 AM  
    Tropical Storm KYLE forecast and strike probability 2K
    Tropical Storm KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States

    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Canada
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fredericton
    (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 26 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:35 AM  
    KYLE A LITTLE STRONGER TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA
    TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    500 AM AST FRI SEP 26 2008

    ...KYLE A LITTLE STRONGER...
    ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

    AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
    THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
    AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


    INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN
    MARITIMES REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE DURING
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 510
    MILES...820 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
    REMAIN WEST OF BERMUDA.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
    60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
    FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND KYLE COULD BECOME A
    HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
    ...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

    RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA
    THROUGH SATURDAY.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...25.6 N...68.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART

    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:34 AM  
    Tropical Storm KYLE forecast and strike probability 1K
    Thursday, September 25, 2008
    Tropical Storm KYLE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 25 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:52 PM  
    LOW PRESSURE AREA FINALLY DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE KYLE
    TROPICAL STORM KYLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
    500 PM AST THU SEP 25 2008

    ...LOW PRESSURE AREA FINALLY DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

    INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVED
    NORTHWARD FROM HISPANIOLA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 645
    MILES...1035 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

    KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001
    MB...29.56 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N...68.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:50 PM  
    Tropical Storm JANGMI forecast and strike probability 2J
    Tropical Storm JANGMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung
    (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 24 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:29 PM  
    Typhoon sweeps HK, China, Vietnam
    Wednesday, September 24, 2008
    The authorities in southern China have evacuated more than 100,000 people from their homes as Typhoon Hagupit hit.

    The weather system killed at least eight people in the Philippines, and closed schools in Hong Kong.

    As it headed towards Guangdong province in southern China, the area was put on the highest level alert.

    Authorities in Vietnam prepared to evacuate residents of coastal areas as it appeared the typhoon was heading south.

    Trees were uprooted and traffic disrupted in Hong Kong. Flash floods hit low-lying areas and dozens of people were injured.

    Typhoon signals were lowered from Number 8 to Number 3 on Wednesday morning allowing businesses and schools to reopen.

    The typhoon made landfall in Guangdong province, which neighbours Hong Kong, just after dawn on Wednesday, with winds of 172 km/h (106 mph), Xinhua news agency reported.

    It is predicted to hit Guangxi province, west of Guangdong, and the island of Hainan.

    More than 50,000 ships and fishing vessels were called back to port and torrential rain and widespread flooding is forecast in China.

    Schools and kindergartens in southern China were ordered to close, and flights were likely to be cancelled or diverted, officials said.

    Streets had emptied, and some shops and business were closed.

    Landslide risks

    The typhoon is expected bring heavy rain to Vietnam's north and could unleash major flooding, that country's weather centre reported.

    Officials were told to prepare stockpiles of food and medicine for areas likely to be isolated by floods.

    The Vietnamese government warned that with floods came the risk of landslides in northern coastal and mountainous provinces.

    Landslides and flooding in the Philippines continues to trap at least 14 goldminers underground.

    Persistent rain and a shortage of oxygen tanks are hampering rescue efforts, officials said, as hopes fade of any survivors being found.

    "We're doing our best to get to the trapped miners," said Mario Godio, mayor of a gold mining town in Benguet province in the northern Philippines.

    Early this month, 20 people were killed and about two dozen were injured when monsoon rains loosened soil and buried a mining village in the southern Philippines, forcing officials to close down two villages.

    Reports were emerging that another storm was gathering strength east of the Philippines and could follow a similar route to that of Typhoon Hagupit.

    BBC
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:39 PM  
    Typhoon HAGUPIT forecast and strike probability 10H
    Typhoon HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Beihai
    (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently


    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
    probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nanning
    (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
    probability for TS is 85% currently
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
    probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 24 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:22 PM  
    Tropical Storm NINETEEN forecst and strike probability nr1
    Tropical Storm NINETEEN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
    the Philippines
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Laoag
    (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 24 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:13 PM  
    Typhoon HAGUPIT forecast and strike probability 9H
    Typhoon HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Vietnam
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
    probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 23 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:18 AM  
    Typhoon HAGUPIT forecast and strike probability 8H
    Tuesday, September 23, 2008
    Typhoon HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Vietnam
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming
    (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Macau
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong
    (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 23 Sep, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:48 PM  
    Disturbance has ‘high’ chance of forming cyclone
    A weather disturbance in the Atlantic has a better than 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center advises.

    The disturbance over Puerto Rico, circled in red above, has the potential to cause “life-threatening” flash floods and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Monday, forecasters said.

    The blob is moving generally northward and could “become a tropical depression at any time,” according to a center advisory. Winds have been clocked up to 35 mph in squalls.

    Forecast models tracked by weatherunderground.com suggest the disturbance could stay at sea to Florida’s east (below), though of course that’s subject to change day to day.


    palmbeachpost.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:17 AM  
    Storm flooding kills four in Puerto Rico
    By John Marino

    SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (Reuters) - A tropical disturbance dumped up to 20 inches of rain on Puerto Rico, killing four people and flooding scores of homes, businesses and roads, authorities said on Monday.

    Up to 12 inches more rain were expected and flash flood warnings were posted across the island. Schools and many businesses were closed and officials urged people to stay inside.

    "We are expecting it to continue raining throughout the island and anticipate up to 12 inches in the southeast," Gov. Anibal Acevedo Vila said at a press conference.

    The weather system has the potential to develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday as it moves northwest away from Puerto Rico, said National Weather Service meteorologist Sean Rossi.

    If the scattered mass of thunderstorms becomes well organized with winds of 39 miles per hour (63 km per hour), it would become Tropical Storm Kyle.

    Computer forecast models took it north-northwest over the Dominican Republic and Haiti and then into the Atlantic. Haiti has already been hit hard by recent hurricanes and tropical storms. About 700 people died when the impoverished nation was hammered by floods triggered by torrential rains from Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike.

    Some anticipated the latest tropical weather system would hit the Carolinas or the northeast U.S. coast, while other models kept it over the open seas. It was not expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, where U.S. oil and gas facilities were still recovering from Hurricane Ike.

    In Puerto Rico, the U.S. territory's southern coast was hardest hit by flooding. Several rivers, including the Rio Grande de Arecibo and Rio de La Plata, surged over their banks.

    A 52-year-old man drowned after his car was swept away by floodwaters on Sunday and a 44-year-old man drowned while trying to rescue another motorist whose car was stuck in a flooded road, police said.

    A third man was driving with his wife and suffered a fatal heart attack when their vehicle was swept up in floodwaters. The fourth victim suffered a fatal heart attack while trying to remove water from his flooded home, police said.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:02 AM  
    Typhoon HAGUPIT (NINA) satellite images and forecast maps sept 23 / 2008
    Monday, September 22, 2008




    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:58 PM  
    The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force for Hong Kong
    Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

    Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
    Hong Kong Observatory.

    The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

    This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about
    800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

    At 6 a.m., Typhoon Hagupit was estimated to be about 480
    kilometres east-southeast of Hong Kong (near 20.0 degrees
    north 118.1 degrees east) and is forecast to move west or
    west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour edging
    closer to the south China coast.

    weather.gov.hk
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:40 PM  
    Typhoon HAGUPIT forecast and strike probability 7H
    Typhoon HAGUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Hong Kong
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Macau
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming
    (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
    probability for TS is 80% currently
    Taiwan
    probability for TS is 65% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou
    (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for TS is 65% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 22 Sep, 2008 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:26 PM  
    Storm system threatens flood-devastated Haiti, Dominican Republic
    SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) -- The Atlantic may be brewing up another tropical depression.

    Forecasters say a cluster of wind and rain swarming toward the Dominican Republic could become a tropical depression in the next few days and batter storm-drenched Haiti.

    The National Weather Service says the slow-moving system had been largely disorganized, but strengthened suddenly when it reached Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

    Emergency officials in both the Dominican Republic and Haiti have issued warnings for heavy rain. Haiti is still struggling to recover from three recent hurricanes and a tropical storm that killed 425 people.

    The National Hurricane Center says "by no means is the season over with," predicting that the ocean could spit out four or five more storms.

    wztv.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:55 PM  
    Typhoon "NINA" is now in the vicinity of Calayan and Babuyan group of islands
    Typhoon "NINA" is now in the vicinity of Calayan and Babuyan group of islands.
    Location of Center:
    (as of 4:00 p.m.) 115 kms North of Aparri, Cagayan

    Coordinates: 19.5°N, 121.6°E
    Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
    Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph
    Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday afternoon:
    360 kms West Northwest of Laoag City or
    410 kms West of Basco, Batanes
    Wednesday afternoon:
    830 kms West Northwest of Basco, Batanes

    Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
    Signal No.3
    (100-185 kph winds)
    Batanes
    Cagayan
    Babuyan
    Calayan Group of Islands
    Ilocos Norte
    Apayao None None

    Signal No. 2
    (60-100 kph winds)
    Rest of Cagayan
    Mt. Province
    Kalinga
    Abra
    Ilocos Sur None None
    Signal No. 1
    (30-60 kph winds) Isabela
    Nueva Ecija
    Pangasinan
    Nueva Vizcaya
    Ifugao
    Benguet
    La Union
    Tarlac
    Zambales
    Pampanga None None


    Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

    Typhoon "NINA" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and Visayas particularly over the western sections. Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under storm signal # 2 and # 3 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

    The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.


    pagasa.dost.gov.ph
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:57 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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