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  • IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES STILL A THREAT
    Saturday, September 13, 2008
    HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
    100 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

    ...IKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN TEXAS...
    ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES STILL A THREAT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF SARGENT
    TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
    PALESTINE TEXAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...
    SOUTH OF TYLER TEXAS...AND ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
    LONGVIEW TEXAS.

    IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
    THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
    TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE IS
    FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO
    WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND IKE IS NOW A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
    ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER
    INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240
    KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...
    WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 20 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS WELL INLAND...ALONG
    WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
    TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
    GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
    OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM
    SURGES VALUES OF TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER
    TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

    IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
    EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
    AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...
    WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
    OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI...
    ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
    SUNDAY.

    A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
    LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

    REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...31.6 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
    HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:46 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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