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  • Tropical storm kills 15 in Bangladesh, some 200 people injured
    Wednesday, October 29, 2008
    Rescue officials on Tuesday said a tropical storm has lashed Bangladesh's coast, killing at least 15 people and injuring at least 200.

    Officials said the storm, spawned by a depression in the Bay of Bengal, struck late Monday, inundating hundreds of villages, leveling several thousand mostly mud-straw huts and knocking down electricity poles.

    They said at least 10 bodies were recovered Tuesday from the rubble of collapsed houses in Biracial district, a hard-hit area 120 kilometers south of capital Dhaka. Another five people drowned in neighboring Patuakhali district.

    The officials said at least 200 villagers were injured and many of them were taken to hospital.

    jpost.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:16 PM  
    Tropical Storm RASHMI forecast and strike probability
    Sunday, October 26, 2008
    Tropical Storm RASHMI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India

    probability for TS is 75% currently
    Bangladesh
    probability for TS is 65% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 26 Oct, 2008 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:21 PM  
    Yemen floods leave 58 dead, 20,000 without shelter
    Saturday, October 25, 2008
    (CNN) -- Rain and flooding in Yemen has killed 58 people and left an estimated 20,000 without basic shelter, a local newspaper reported Saturday.

    Most of the dead were in Hadramout, one of the worst-affected provinces, said Yemen Post Editor-in-Chief Hakim al-Masman, citing the Ministry of the Interior.

    Officials continued to evacuate people from affected areas, but thousands remained stranded in their homes because the extensive rain has prevented help from reaching them, the newspaper said.

    The flooding follows several days of rain in the Middle Eastern country that is unaccustomed to more than a few inches of rain a year.

    The rain began Thursday as the remnants of a tropical cyclone moved over the area, said CNN forecaster Martyn Jeanes. The rain continued Friday and into the weekend as the weather system hung over the region, also bringing rain to parts of Saudi Arabia and northern Somalia, Jeanes said.

    Better weather conditions were expected Sunday and conditions should be "much improved" by then, Jeanes said.

    Thousands of families have fled Hadramout, the newspaper reported. Some evacuees are being taken to schools, but they can only accommodate about 10 percent of the people, the newspaper previously said.

    The Yemeni government promised to send tents as emergency shelter.

    More than 730 houses have been destroyed and many infrastructure projects suffered damage from the rains, according to SABA, the Yemeni news agency. The rains also caused damage to property and agricultural lands and killed a large number of livestock, SABA reported.

    Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh ordered the formation of an emergency committee for the delivery of aid to those who were affected by heavy rains, the news agency said.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:22 PM  
    Death toll mounts in Yemen tropical storm
    SHIBAM, Yemen – Floods swept through southern Yemen after a tropical storm slammed into the impoverished country, leaving 49 people dead, a senior police official said on Saturday.

    Hamid el-Kharashi, a police chief in the southern province of Hadramut, said the death toll is expected to rise as scores of people are still missing and hundreds of families are homeless or trapped by the rising waters.

    More than 638 houses have been demolished by the flash floods in Hadramut alone, he added.

    The tropical storm formed out in the Indian Ocean earlier in the week and headed north, hitting Yemen's remote Hadramut province on Thursday.

    An Associated Press reporter in the historic city of Shibam watched a two-story mud brick house disintegrate in front of him as the distraught family stood nearby.

    "The house was flooded so my family and 16 others slept with relatives nearby," said Ahmed Salam, as he watched his home collapse. They evacuated the night before as rushing waters began to eat away at the foundation.

    Damage has been extensive throughout the Hadramut because most homes are made of mud brick.

    In Shibam, a UNESCO world heritage site, the towering 16th century mud brick buildings are collapsing from the unfamiliar downpour and ensuing flash floods.

    Shibam's tall, skyscraper-like mud brick houses earned it the name of "the Manhattan of the desert."

    Karam Basalamah, a 60-year-old farmer, blamed local government corruption for exacerbating the damage by allowing illegal building in flood prone areas.

    "Local officials authorized the building of houses in the flood plain," he said. "Now waters are diverted into the town, get trapped inside houses and cause them to collapse."

    The province of Mouhra, sandwiched between Hadramut and the border with Oman to the northeast, was affected as well.

    On Friday, Mouhra deputy governor, Salem Numier, said floods have cut off main roads, caused power outages. There was also a shortage in medicine and food supplies, he said.

    Hadramut is Yemen's largest province and occupies a third of the country.

    Yemen's national weather center said the storm was likely to continue through Saturday and warned fishermen and beach visitors of 16 foot high waves.

    ap
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:19 PM  
    Cat. 3 Hurricane Omar Moving Further Away In Atlantic Waters
    Thursday, October 16, 2008
    The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico have discontinued the hurricane warning, after Category 3 Hurricane Omar started moving away from the land. Omar swept the Virgin Islands with winds of 115 miles per hour (185 kilometers), but thanks to a shift in the system, the residents did not experience major damages or loss of lives.

    In the Virgin Islands, Hurricane Omar caused an oil refinery to close down. In addition to that, local authorities in Puerto Rico reported some flooded roads, and downed trees, due to the strong winds and rains that Omar brought along.

    The National Hurricane Center announced that Omar, although still a Category 3 hurricane, is likely to weaken over the next 24 hours, as it moves toward northeast at 29 mph, away from the northern Leeward Islands. The hurricane is expected to suffer a gradual increase in forward speed within the next 24 to 48 hours, as it moves further in the Atlantic.

    The center revealed that Omar is moving rapidly from the northern Leeward Islands. The center of the hurricane was located at latitude 20.3 north, longitude 62.4 west on Thursday, at 12:00 UTC, more precisely 160 miles (260 km) north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

    The National Hurricane Center said the Gulf of Mexico has nothing to worry about this time, as Omar moves further away into the Atlantic, turning into a tropical storm. This was a relief for oil companies exploiting the oil and gas resources along the golf coast.

    In the meantime, NHC revealed that Tropical Depression 16, located near latitude 15.3 north, longitude 85.9 west, with maximum sustained winds near 30 mph, or 45 km/h, is expected to remain over Honduras, with heavy rains hitting portions of Central America.

    The system is expected to drop 4 to 8 inches of rain in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and a maximum of 15 inches in the Yucatan Peninsula. There is a high risk of mudslides and flash floods, NHC warned.

    efluxmedia.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:11 PM  
    OMAR QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 13
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
    1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

    ...OMAR QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
    ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER
    ANTILLES...

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
    290 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND
    THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

    OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
    INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES FROM ANTIGUA SOUTHWARD TO
    MARTINIQUE.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.2 N...61.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:03 PM  
    Intense Hurricane OMAR forecast and strike probability 4/O
    Intense Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Anguilla
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the British Virgin Island
    s
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    Guadeloupe
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    the Netherlands Antilles
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    the Virgin Islands
    probability for TS is 85% currently
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    probability for TS is 70% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
    probability for TS is 80% currently

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 16 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:01 PM  
    Caribbean getting pounded by Hurricane Omar
    MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Omar weakened Thursday after crashing through the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean, blasting them with powerful winds and inundating rains.

    Shortly before approaching the islands as a Category 3 hurricane, Omar's maximum sustained winds had increased to 125 mph, but slowed a bit to 115 mph after moving rapidly away from the islands -- which include the Virgin Islands, the National Hurricane Center said.

    The fast-moving storm was picking up speed, heading northeast at about 29 mph, according to the hurricane center's 8 a.m. update.

    "This motion, with a gradual increase in forward speed, is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours," forecasters said.

    All warnings and watches were discontinued for the Leeward Islands.

    Earlier, the 500,000 barrel-a-day oil refinery Hovensa, on St. Croix, was shutting down all equipment "except those necessary to maintain power supply in the complex," refinery spokesman Alex Moorhead said in a written statement.

    The move was to ensure the safety of employees and the operation of the refinery, jointly owned by Hess Corp. and Venezuela's state oil company.

    The U.S. Coast Guard closed the Christiansted Harbor, where the refinery is located, on Tuesday. It will remain closed, Moorhead said, until the hurricane passes and all facilities are checked to be in good order. See where Omar is headed »

    As of 8 a.m. ET, the center of the storm was about 160 miles (260 kilometers) north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, forecasters said. It has already dumped heavy rain on the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

    Puerto Rico and some portions of the northern Leeward Islands, which includes the Virgin Islands, could get up to 20 inches of rain, according to the forecast.

    "These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides," the hurricane center warned. The storm could dump up to 8 inches of rain over the Netherlands Antilles, the chain of Caribbean islands off Venezuela's coast. Some areas could receive a foot of rain.

    Portions of Venezuela and the northern Guajira Peninsula, which stretches from Colombia and Venezuela into the Caribbean, could receive 6 inches of rain, the NHC said.

    The storm could also produce large swells along the west- and south-facing coasts of the Lesser Antilles -- the Caribbean islands that stretch from the Virgin Islands southward to the islands off Venezuela's coast.

    The swells could erode beaches and damage coastal structures, the hurricane center said.

    The hurricane center reported that storm-surge flooding along the south- and west-facing coasts of the northern Leeward Islands will subside later Thursday morning, but large swells may continue throughout the day.

    Puerto Rico is under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch, as are St. Kitts and Nevis, the center said.

    Antigua, Barbuda and Montserrat are under a tropical storm warning, meaning they could experience tropical storm conditions over the coming 24 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Guadeloupe.


    The storm is forecast to head into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean after crossing over the Virgin Islands and sweeping past Puerto Rico, but hurricane tracks are subject to variation, and such long-range predictions can change.

    Omar formed Tuesday in the eastern Caribbean. It is the 15th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends November 30.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:58 PM  
    Hurricane OMAR forecast and strike probability 3/O
    Wednesday, October 15, 2008
    Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 21 hours
    Anguilla
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Croix
    (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Puerto Rico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Guadeloupe
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    the Netherlands Antilles
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:48 PM  
    DEPRESSION HUGGING THE COAST OF HONDURAS
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
    500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

    ...DEPRESSION HUGGING THE COAST OF HONDURAS...

    AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA
    AND FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
    BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT
    95 MILES...150 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460
    KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A
    GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
    VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
    ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
    THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
    BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
    8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
    BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
    UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
    FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...16.0 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    AM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:39 AM  
    Tropical Depression TWENTYTWO forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Depression TWENTYTWO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
    probability for TS is 70% currently
    Laos
    probability for TS is 60% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
    probability for TS is 70% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit
    http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:36 AM  
    Hurricane OMAR forecast and strike probability 2-O
    Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the British Virgin Islands

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    the Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    the Netherlands Antilles
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Puerto Rico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
    Anguilla
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Guadeloupe
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Croix
    (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:30 AM  
    HURRICANE OMAR CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
    HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
    500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008

    ...OMAR CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
    SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
    ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
    MONTSERRAT.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
    PUERTO RICO.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...
    455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

    OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD
    MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
    THURSDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
    MILES...165 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

    OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
    OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
    NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
    INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
    FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
    EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN
    ADDITION...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL
    AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
    ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH
    EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...67.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:20 AM  
    OMAR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH..HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED.
    Tuesday, October 14, 2008
    TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
    500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

    ...OMAR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
    ...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

    AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS.

    AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...AND FRANCE...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

    AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT.

    AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
    DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
    THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
    LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE
    NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 345
    MILES...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
    120 MILES...195 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO.

    OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
    A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
    WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY
    WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS AND OMAR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
    WEDNESDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
    ...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    DATA IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

    OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
    PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
    NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
    INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THESE RAINS COULD
    PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
    AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
    ANTILLES. THESE PROLONGED SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
    DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

    REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...68.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:19 PM  
    Tropical Storm OMAR forecast and strike probability 1-O
    Tropical Storm OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the British Virgin Islands

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    the Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    the Netherlands Antilles
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    Anguilla
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    Guadeloupe
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours
    Puerto Rico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 14 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:51 PM  
    OMAR STRENGTHENS AS IT LASHES ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
    TROPICAL STORM OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
    200 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

    ...OMAR STRENGTHENS AS IT LASHES ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE...
    WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
    U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
    EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
    ENGANO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
    ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SABA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
    LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE
    NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST OR ABOUT 375
    MILES...600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
    110 MILES...180 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO.

    OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
    TURN TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
    INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON
    WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...83 KM/HR. HOWEVER...THE
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT COMPLETED ITS INVESTIGATION OF
    OMAR...AND THE TROPICAL STORM COULD BE STRONGER. ADDITIONAL
    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...
    110 KM...MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO
    43 MPH...63 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON CURACAO.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

    OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
    PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
    NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. THESE
    RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...68.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
    AT 500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:38 PM  
    Tropical storm forms in eastern Caribbean
    (CNN) -- Tropical Storm Omar formed Tuesday in the eastern Caribbean Sea with top winds of 40 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

    The storm's center is about 125 miles north of Curacao, an island in the Netherlands Antilles off the coast of Venezuela, the hurricane center reported in its 11 a.m. ET advisory.

    Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and the extreme eastern portion of the Dominican Republic.

    Omar is moving east-southeast near 2 mph and is expected to turn gradually to the east and then northeast later in the day. The slow-moving storm is expected to pick up speed Wednesday.

    Its forecast track shows it heading over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean after crossing over the Virgin Islands, possibly as a hurricane, later in the week. Hurricane tracks are subject to variation, and multiple-day predictions can change.

    Omar is the 15th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends November 30.

    A tropical depression also formed Tuesday in the western Caribbean, the hurricane center said. The government of Honduras issued a tropical storm warning from the Honduras-Nicaragua border west to Limon.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:08 PM  
    Norbert weakens to tropical storm after hitting Mexico
    Sunday, October 12, 2008
    PUERTO SAN CARLOS, Mexico (AP.cnn) -- U.S. National Hurricane Center officials said Sunday that after making landfall over mainland Mexico, Norbert has weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm.

    Early Sunday morning, Norbert made landfall over mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with winds near 85 mph (140 kph), but the Miami, Florida-based center said those winds have weakened to near 60 mph (95 kph).

    Forecasters say Norbert is expected to rapidly weaken to a tropical depression later Sunday morning.

    At 5 a.m. Sunday, Norbert was about 140 miles (225 kilometers) southwest of Chihuahua, Mexico and was moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (32 kph).

    The center says Norbert is expected to reach western Texas and New Mexico later in the day.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:16 PM  
    Hurricane Norbert batters Mexico
    A powerful cylone has swept across Mexico's northwest Pacific coast, tearing off roofs and forcing hundreds of people to flee flooded homes, local authorities say.

    One person has gone missing and more than 20,000 homes are without electricity since Hurricane Norbert struck on Saturday.

    Norbert, which made landfall as a Category Two hurricane on the five-level Saffir-Simpson scale, came ashore at Puerto Cortes on the Baja California peninsula around 1630 GMT, according to Mexico's national weather service.

    It was later downgraded to a Category One storm with winds of 150km per hour.

    "A man trying to cross the Miramar creek has been reported as missing after the current swept him away," the authorities in Loreto, one of the Mexican municipalities Norbert tore through, said.

    At 0300 GMT on Sunday the eye of Norbert was located about 195km east-northeast of Loreto, the US-based National Hurricane Center reported.

    Mass evacuations

    Some 2,850 people were housed in temporary shelters.

    Forty per cent of homes were totally or partially damaged on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena, mainly having lost their roofs, according to a report from state protection services.

    In the Baja California capital of La Paz, the storm knocked out power to 13,000 homes, and to 8,000 more in Ciudad Constitution, the Federal Electricity Commission reported.

    aljazeera
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:16 PM  
    Latest Huricane NORBERT satellite images and forecastmaps oct.12 / 08
    Saturday, October 11, 2008


    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:49 PM  
    EYE OF NORBERT EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HEADING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO
    HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
    200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

    ...EYE OF NORBERT EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HEADING
    FOR MAINLAND MEXICO...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA...AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO.

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
    MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

    AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
    FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO
    SOUTHWWARD TO ALTATA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO
    CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LA PAZ.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

    THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE
    LOWERED LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
    100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200
    KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.

    NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
    A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
    TRACK...NORBERT WILL CROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT
    SEVERAL HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
    MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
    NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL TONIGHT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
    QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST AND MOVES INTO
    NORTHWEST MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
    IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT VERY SHORTLY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
    MILES...205 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

    NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
    INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
    NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
    THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
    SLIDES. IN ADDITION...NORBERT COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
    THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
    GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET
    ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
    WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...NEAR
    AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...25.2 N...110.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
    PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:31 PM  
    Tropical Storm ODILE forecast and strike probability 1.O
    Tropical Storm ODILE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 70% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Playa Azul
    (18.0 N, 102.4 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours
    Acapulco (17.0 N, 99.9 W)
    probability for TS is 55% currently
    Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:30 PM  
    Hurricane NORBERT forecast and strike probability 5H
    Hurricane NORBERT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Navojoa
    (27.6 N, 109.5 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Don (26.5 N, 109.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Los Mochis (25.8 N, 109.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)
    probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.


    Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:25 PM  
    Hurricane NORBERT forecast and strike probability 4H
    Friday, October 10, 2008
    Hurricane NORBERT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 10 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:50 PM  
    NORBERT CONTINUES NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
    HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
    1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

    ...NORBERT CONTINUES NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS SOUTHERN
    BAJA CALIFORNIA...

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO AGUA BLANCA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLE
    TION
    .

    A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH OF AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS AND NORTHWARD AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
    BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
    MEXICO FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES
    ...425 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

    NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
    EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FASTER MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IS
    EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL
    BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY
    MORNING.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
    NORBERT REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
    HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAD TO BE CANCELED DUE
    TO AN EQUIPMENT PROBLEM.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST
    OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
    140 MILES...220 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

    NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
    INCHES OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
    NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
    THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
    SLIDES.

    STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
    WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
    WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
    OF WHERE NORBERT MAKES LANDFALL.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...20.8 N...113.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    200 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:34 PM  
    Hurricane NORBERT forecast and strike probability 3H
    Thursday, October 9, 2008

    Hurricane NORBERT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 9 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:03 PM  
    NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA
    HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
    200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

    ...NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA
    CALIFORNIA...

    INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY SOON BE REQUIRED FOR
    A PORTION OF THIS AREA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES
    ...600 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

    NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
    TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. NORBERT IS
    FORECAST TO TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
    THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
    ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
    DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
    AIRCRAFT WAS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...18.3 N...112.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    800 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:57 PM  
    Latest Huricane NORBERT satellite images and forecastmaps oct.8 / 08
    Wednesday, October 8, 2008





    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:51 PM  
    Intense Hurricane NORBERT forecast and strike probability 2H
    Intense Hurricane NORBERT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 8 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:14 PM  
    CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE NORBERT STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE
    HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 19
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
    800 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008

    ...NORBERT STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE...

    INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES
    ...740 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

    NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
    KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
    TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THURSDAY FOLLOWED
    BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
    ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
    DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
    HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
    MILES...185 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.3 N...110.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    200 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER RHOME
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:11 PM  
    Tropical Depression MARCO forecast and strikeprobability 2M
    Tuesday, October 7, 2008
    Tropical Depression MARCO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for TS is 70% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 7 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:55 PM  
    Hurricane NORBERT forecast and strike probability 1H
    Hurricane NORBERT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Poza
    (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.


    Storm Alert issued at 7 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:53 PM  
    Tropical Storm Marco hits Mexico's Gulf coast
    VERACRUZ, Mexico (AP) — Tropical Storm Marco roared ashore on Mexico's Gulf coast with near-hurricane force winds on Tuesday, prompting a shutdown of some oil platforms.

    The storm flooded coastal highways and brought heavy rains to the city of Veracruz, but the busy port appeared to have escaped most of the storm's wrath.

    Veracruz state authorities closed schools and set up some 200 shelters. Soldiers and rescue officials lined up buses and prepared to evacuate communities, some in low-lying areas still trying to recover from heavy flooding caused by rains last week.

    Mexico's state oil company said it had evacuated 33 workers from four offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, closed six wells and shut down a natural gas processing plant in Veracruz state ahead of Marco's arrival.

    Marco was a tightly wound cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 15 miles (30 kilometers) from the center, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

    Marco hit land about 55 miles (90 kilometers) north of Veracruz with winds near hurricane strength, but quickly weakened as it headed inland. Forecasters said it would dissipate as it moves over mountainous terrain, and state officials warned that rainfall of as much as 4 inches (10 centimeters) in places could unleash dangerous mudslides.

    Mexico's Communications and Transportation Department ordered the small ports of Nautla and Alvarado closed to small vessels.

    Ranulfo Marquez, the state's top civil protection official, said dozens of shelters would remain open in southern Veracruz, where rain-swollen rivers jumped their banks, leaving the towns of Minatitlan and Hidalgotitlan under 10 feet (3 meters) of water.

    "This will be a strong phenomenon (for the state), especially taking into account that we already have 43 rivers that have overflowed," Marquez said.

    Meanwhile, on the other side of Mexico, Norbert strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane over the Pacific Ocean late Monday and forecasters said it could hit the southern Baja California Peninsula by the weekend before bringing rain to the northern Mexican mainland.

    The hurricane center said Norbert was centered 555 miles (895 kilometers) south-southeast of the tip of the peninsula early Tuesday and it was moving west-northwest at 8 mph (13 kph). It had winds of 80 mph (130 kph) and was likely to strengthen.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:27 PM  
    Hurricane Norbert is forecast to strike Mexico at about 18:00 GMT on 11 October.
    Hurricane Norbert is forecast to strike Mexico at about 18:00 GMT on 11 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 24.1 N, 112.0 W. Norbert is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 129 km/h (80 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

    According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Norbert's strength (category 1) at landfall includes:

    Storm surge generally 1.2-1.5 metres (4-5 feet) above normal.
    No real damage to building structures.
    Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees.
    Some damage to poorly constructed signs.
    Some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.
    There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

    The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    alertnet.org
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:26 PM  
    Tropical Storm MARCO forecast and strike probability 1M
    Tropical Storm MARCO is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 45% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 7 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:17 PM  
    NORBERT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
    800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008

    ...NORBERT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT CONTINUES
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

    AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES
    ...895 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

    NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
    AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
    ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
    MILES...140 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...15.3 N...107.1 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    200 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:17 PM  
    Tropical Storm Marco makes landfall in Mexico
    MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Tropical Storm Marco made landfall Tuesday on Mexico's Gulf Coast a day after forming in the Bay of Campeche, the National Hurricane Center said.
    At 11 a.m. ET Tuesday, the center of the storm was just inland of the central Mexican coast, about 80 miles (125 kilometers) south-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico, and 55 miles (90 kilometers) north-northwest of Veracruz.

    The storm was moving west-northwest at near 8 mph (13 kph), and it's expected to move farther inland over Mexico later Tuesday.

    A tropical storm warning remained in effect for the Mexican coast from Cabo Rojo southward to Veracruz. The Mexican government has discontinued a hurricane watch, the hurricane center said.

    Forecasters said tropical storm conditions were expected within the warning area Tuesday. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions, including winds of at least 39 mph (63 kph), are expected within 24 hours.

    The storm's maximum sustained winds were at 65 mph (105 kph) with higher gusts. Marco was expected to weaken within the next 24 hours and likely to dissipate over Mexico's high terrain on Wednesday.

    In anticipation of the storm, Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex, decided to evacuate 33 workers from four oil platforms at sea. It also closed six oil wells and took other steps to guard against damage, the company said.

    Marco is a small storm, with tropical storm-force winds extending 15 miles (24 kilometers) from its center.

    The storm is expected to dump up to 6 inches of rain in some areas across the southern and central Mexican states of Veracruz, northern Puebla, Hidalgo and San Luis Potosi.

    CNN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:07 PM  
    DEPRESSION THIRTEEN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    Monday, October 6, 2008
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
    100 PM CDT MON OCT 06 2008

    ...DEPRESSION CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
    MEXICO FROM TUXPAN SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO. A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
    THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT
    115 MILES...185 KM...EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND
    THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
    ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
    MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR
    TO LANDFALL.

    AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
    THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

    THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
    4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
    SOUTHER MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...NORTHERN OAXACA...AND TABASCO.

    REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    400 PM CDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:38 PM  
    TROPICAL STORM NORBERT 525 KM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
    TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 11
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
    800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008

    AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST OR ABOUT 325
    MILES...525 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

    NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
    SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
    NORBERT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...104.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    200 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER RHOME

    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:35 PM  
    MARIE WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
    800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008

    ...MARIE WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION...

    AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST OR ABOUT 920
    MILES...1480 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA.

    THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR...
    AND A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
    SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS...AND MARIE WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY
    TUESDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.7 N...123.4 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    200 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:30 PM  
    NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF MEXICO
    Sunday, October 5, 2008
    TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
    800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008

    ...NORBERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF MEXICO...

    AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST OR ABOUT 215
    MILES...345 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

    NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
    AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO
    DAYS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
    DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NORBERT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
    TOMORROW.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.6 N...101.9 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    200 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER RHOME
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov or http://hurricanes.gov
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:35 PM  
    Tropical Depression HIGOS forecast and strike probability 5H
    Friday, October 3, 2008
    Tropical Depression HIGOS is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Qionghai
    (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 3 Oct, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:50 PM  
    MIAMI (AP)- Tropical Storm Marie is moving westward in the Pacific on a path that's taking it farther away from Mexico's coast.
    Thursday, October 2, 2008
    MIAMI (AP)- Tropical Storm Marie is moving westward in the Pacific on a path that's taking it farther away from Mexico's coast.

    Marie's maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph and the National Hurricane Center in Miami says some strengthening is possible Thursday.

    The storm is centered about 735 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California early Thursday. Marie is moving west near 12 mph.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:56 PM  
    Tropical Depression HIGOS forecast and strike probability 4H
    Wednesday, October 1, 2008
    Tropical Depression HIGOS is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Hong Kong
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Macau
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guangzhou
    (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2008 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:12 PM  
    LAURA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COLD WATERS
    TROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
    1100 AM AST WED OCT 01 2008

    ...LAURA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COLD WATERS...

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 46.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...505
    KM...EAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

    LAURA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
    A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
    FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. EVEN THOUGH LAURA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS
    EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR AT
    LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...46.5 N...46.5 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

    THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
    FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

    $$
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:43 PM  
    THIRTEENTH TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
    TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
    800 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008

    ...THIRTEENTH TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

    AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST OR ABOUT 575
    MILES...930 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

    MARIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
    TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...116.3 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    200 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:42 PM  
    LAURA WEAKENING OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS
    TROPICAL STORM LAURA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
    500 AM AST WED OCT 01 2008

    ...LAURA WEAKENING OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS...

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295
    MILES...475 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

    LAURA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
    THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST ON
    THURSDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...
    75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
    FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LAURA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
    TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...44.8 N...47.6 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:19 PM  
    Tropical Storm LAURA forecast and strike probability 2L
    Tropical Storm LAURA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Ireland
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Northern Ireland
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stornoway
    (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 93 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:18 PM  
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
    200 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008

    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA...

    AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST OR ABOUT
    590 MILES...950 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
    14 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
    24 TO 36 HR.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
    TODAY OR THURSDAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

    REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...16.3 N...115.7 W. MOVEMENT
    TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
    MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    800 AM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    This information is provided as a public service from the National Hurricane Center http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or http://hurricanes.gov/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:13 PM  
    Tropical Storm HIGOS forecast and strike probability 3H
    Tropical Storm HIGOS is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines

    probability for TS is 90% currently
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
    Hong Kong
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Macau
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila
    (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
    probability for TS is 60% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.


    Storm Alert issued at 1 Oct, 2008 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:12 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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