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  • `formation alert` for potential tropical storm to form over the South China Sea (west of the Philippines).
    Thursday, April 30, 2009
    I spoke on Wednesday about two `hot spots` with respect to tropical weather over the western North Pacific basin, these being to the east and the west of the Philippines, respectively. As of Thursday, the JTWC have posted a `formation alert` relating to the potential for a tropical storm to form over the South China Sea (west of the Philippines).

    At this time, however, I want to talk about what has lately been happened over the Philippines. Owing to converging low-level winds, out-flowing winds aloft and the hilly nature of the Philippine landscape, there have been instances of torrential rain south and east of Manila.

    On the eastern island of Catanduanes, our data shows 36-hour rainfall (through Thursday night (local time) of 697 mm, or 27.4 inches, at the weather radar site (north side of the island).

    Shrinking next to this, yet still dramatic, are these falls (within two to three days):

    Alabat -- 320 mm/12.5 inches
    Daet (southern Luzon) -- 335 mm/13.2 inches
    Virac (southern Catanduanes) -- 275 mm/10.8 inches

    --And the heavy rain is not done. The unsettled setting of converging moisture-laden wind over the archipelago will make for local excessive rainfall through at least early next week.

    --Now, as for the potential for a tropical storm, things are not so easy. Notwithstanding the JTWC plotting tropical low pressure off west-central Philippines, numerical weather forecasts are divergent as to what will happen--and when it may happen.

    My take is that no tropical storm will form within the next two days west of the Philippines. The low-level cyclonic swirl (weak low pressure) now over the eastern South China Sea may either dissipate and reform east of the Philippines, shift bodily east to the nearby Philippine Sea, or none of the above.

    I am inclined to believe that a tropical storm will happen over the western North Pacific Basin within the next five days (give or take), but I do not know where.

    --South Asia:

    --In South Asia, there was further weakening of the severe heat over Pakistan on Thursday. Thus, the highest temperature was `only` 44 degrees C at Pad Idan. Nawabshah had 42.5 degrees; the hottest at early week was 48 degrees C. Farther south and east, there was widespread 44- to 46-degree (111-115 degrees F) heat spread over northern and middle India. In eastern Maharashtra, Nagpur reached a full 47 degrees C on Thursday. Akola, with 46 degrees, was right behind in line.

    The trimming of severe heat over Pakistan has happened owing to a weak low pressure aloft, not unlike a so-called `Western Disturbance` although I believe this may have reached Pakistan from the Arabian Sea and not from the west. Whatever it's path into the Subcontinent, this weak low will veer eastward as it slowly crosses the northern Subcontinent during the next few days. It may spark local heavy thunderstorms at the weekend in the highly storm-prone northeastern Subcontinent (near the Khasi Hills with its renowned rain-soaked town of Cherrapunji).

    As the weak low pressure wave heads eastward through the end it the week, it will also trim the heat, if only a little, over the northern half of India.


    accuweather
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:56 PM  
    Cyclone moving away from NT Australian coastline
    Tuesday, April 28, 2009
    The Bureau of Meteorology says a cyclone off the northern Australian coastline is not expected to pose a threat to the mainland.

    The category 1 storm, Tropical Cyclone Kirrily, has formed in the northern Arafura sea.

    Although the weather bureau predicts the storm will intensify, it says the cyclone should continue moving north-west and away from the north Australian coast.

    abc.net.au
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:57 AM  
    Cyclone threat in the Arafura Sea
    Sunday, April 26, 2009

    The system is being tracked by the Territory's cyclone warning centre. Experts have been watching the low in the Arafura Sea for several days but increased thunderstorm activity near its centre has ramped up the chances of it becoming a cyclone. Yesterday, the weather bureau upgraded its chances of forming a cyclone from low to moderate.

    Last night, the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre was forecasting the low to move northeast before becoming a cyclone.

    The low was centred in the Arafura Sea last night, about 500km north-northeast of the Territory coast.

    Two strong wind warnings were issued yesterday for the Top End.

    Bureau forecaster Billy Lynch said the cyclone warning centre was being staffed 24 hours a day and regular updates would be issued.

    But he said if it did become a cyclone, it was not predicted to hit the Territory coast.

    "We are expecting it to move to the west-northwest and away from the Northern Territory," he said.

    "We're not expecting it to have any affect on the NT."

    Of the two wind warnings, one is related to the cyclone and extends to coastal waters from Cape Don to Cape Wessell. Winds up to 30 knots are expected.

    But while the cyclone threat shows the Top End is still affected by the final throes of the monsoon season, a serious taste of the Dry is coming up from the other direction.

    A wind warning has been issued for the southwest Gulf coast, with the winds caused by warm dry air heading up from Central Australia.

    Mr Lynch said the Top End will feel the drop in humidity from tomorrow.

    "The humidity's really going to plummet across the Top End in the next few days," he said. "It should give us a taste of the dry season."

    ntnews.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:21 PM  
    Homes damaged as cyclone lashes Bangladesh
    Saturday, April 18, 2009
    CHITTAGONG, Bangladesh (AFP) — A cyclone packing winds of up to 90 kilometres (56 miles) an hour lashed Bangladesh's southeastern coastal area, damaging houses and uprooting trees, officials said Saturday.

    Cox's Bazar police chief Motiur Rahman told AFP few casualties were reported after Cyclone Bijli weakened before making landfall late Friday.

    "The cyclone was not very strong. We took precautionary measures and all people living in low-lying areas went to shelters," he said, adding that those evacuated were allowed to return home on Saturday morning.

    "Dozens of thatched houses were destroyed in the cyclone and some trees were uprooted."

    Three people had died, including a 50-year-old man and a month-old baby, both of whom had medical conditions that deteriorated while being moved to the shelters.

    "A nine-year-old boy was also killed after a tree fell on his family's corrugated tin-roofed thatched house during the cyclone," Rahman said.

    Chittagong district administrative chief Farid Uddin Ahmed, overseeing the emergency response along the 300-kilometre (186-mile) southeastern coast, said rescue workers were still trying to reach remote areas.

    "We are still waiting for final reports of damage. Some houses have been hit but overall the damage is minimal because the tide was low which meant the tidal surge was not too severe."

    The port at Chittagong, the biggest in Bangladesh, reopened at midday Saturday, an official said and fishermen set sail as rough seas subsided.

    Chittagong and Cox's Bazar airports were closed from Friday afternoon and 1,000 passengers were affected by the backlog when terminals reopened Saturday, Chittagong airport spokesman Kamrul Islam told AFP.

    Bangladesh frequently experiences tropical storms and cyclones during the monsoon season. Bijli is the first for the 2009 rainy season, which is just beginning in the South Asian nation.

    More than 3,500 people were killed during Cyclone Sidr in November 2007, which packed winds of up to 240-kilometres an hour and was the second-strongest storm recorded in Bangladesh.

    In 1970, some half a million people died when a cyclone hit the impoverished country, while an estimated 138,000 people died as a result of a cyclonic surge in 1991.

    The lower death tolls in 1991 and 2007 were attributed to a network of cyclone shelters and a warning system introduced after the 1970 disaster.

    In neighbouring Myanmar, the military-run government's meteorological service urged residents of the country's western coastal region to stay away from the sea until Bijli had passed.

    In April last year Myanmar was hit by Cyclone Nargis, which left an estimated 138,000 people dead or missing and affected some 2.4 million people, mostly in its southwest delta region.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:18 PM  
    Cyclone warning for Myanmar's west coast
    YANGON (AFP) — Myanmar weather officials issued a cyclone warning Friday, urging residents in the western coastal region to stay away from the sea for two days until the storm passed.

    The military-run government's meteorological department issued the advice on its website following updates from the United Nations' weather monitoring centre.

    "All vessels... in Myanmar waters along the Rakhine coast are advised to take precautionary measures by navigating away from the area exposed to the threat from rough seas and strong winds until 18 April 2009," it said.

    The UN World Meteorological Organisation said that Cyclone Bijli was currently located over the Bay of Bengal "and is likely to intensify further."

    "The current forecast indicates that the tropical depression will seriously affect the coasts of India, Bangladesh and northern Myanmar," it warned.

    A Myanmar radio report said tidal surges six to eight feet (about two metres) high were expected and put the threat from the cyclone at "orange," which is medium-level.

    "When the cyclone crosses, the surface wind speed could reach 60 to 75 miles per hour and the sea will be rough," the radio announcer said.

    Myanmar was hit by a severe cyclone one year ago that left an estimated 138,000 people dead or missing and affected some 2.4 million people, mostly in the southwest delta region.

    But despite a huge international relief push, the secretive ruling junta stalled on issuing visas to foreign aid workers and blocked some humanitarian supplies from entering the country, drawing worldwide condemnation.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:30 AM  
    150.000 families in Bhola outside cyclone shelter coverage
    Many offshore islands have no shelter

    Several lakh people living in the coastal areas of Bhola district are highly vulnerable to cyclones and tidal surges as the shelters constructed the purpose are too inadequate to accommodate the large number of people during natural disasters.

    Around 1.5 lakh families living in chars (island) of high-risk coastal areas in seven upazilas under Bhola district are outside cyclone shelter coverage, said sources at Cyclone Preparedness Programme office in Barisal.

    After super cyclone `Sidr' wreaked havoc in the southern region of the country in November 2007, the government took an initiative to build 20 cyclone shelter-cum schools in seven upazilas of Bhola district but it is too inadequate to meet the requirement.

    According to the report of a survey conducted by district Red Crescent

    Society, there are no shelter centres in Ramdaspur, Ramdevpur, Gameshpur, Char Sitaram, Baraipur, Char Pangacshia, Char Chakimara, Char Shyampur, Char Hossain, Gazir Char under Sadar upazila.

    Same is the situation in Madanpur Char, Togbi, Medua, Neyamatpur, Bhavanipur, Hajipur under Daulatkhan upazila, Char Patila, Char Rizvi, Char Shamsuddin under Borhanuddin upazila, Char Nasrin, Char Mozammel, Char Tozammel, Char Luxmi under Tamijuddin upazila, Char Hasina, Char Alam, Char Ashraf, Char Sikender under Char Fashion upazila, Kalatolir Char and Dalchar under Monpura upazila.

    Other char areas without cyclone shelters include Dhal Char, Char Kukri Mukri, Char Motahar, Char Sakuchia and Char Zahiruddin.

    On an average, about 5,000 families live in each of the chars.

    There are shelter centres at Char Zahiruddin under Tajumuddin upazila, Char Nizam under Monpura upazila, Char Kukurmari, Dalchar and Char Patila under Char Fashion upazila but their accommodation capacity is much less than the population.

    Char Nizam has one cyclone shelter for six thousand people and Nijhum Dwip has four cyclone shelters for 20 thousand people.

    For 1,04,000 inhabitants of Manpura upazila of island district Bhola, there are only 28 cyclone shelters and two matir kella (multi-storied mud houses) to accommodate only 22,400 people.

    In Char Fashion upazila of the same district, only 15 cyclone shelters and 18 mud houses are available for its 4,15,520 residents.

    According to Cyclone Preparedness Programme office, a typical cyclone shelter can accommodate around 800 people but as many as 3,000 people huddle in a centre when faced with the menace.

    In absence of adequate cyclone shelters, the people in the coastal areas including Bhola district pass their days amid panic when there is warning for natural disasters like cyclone and tidal surge.

    The situation is even worse in remote islands off the coast.

    Construction of a large number of shelter centres is needed to save the large number of people from the menace.

    Md Ershad Ali, an official at district Relief and Rehabilitation Office, said the department had not got any sanction for construction of more cyclone shelters in the coastal island areas.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:28 AM  
    Cyclone closes in, Ctg port on Signal 7
    The cyclonic storm Bijli is likely to intensify further and move in a north or northeasterly direction and may cross Barisal-Chittagong coast by Friday midnight, a Met Office bulletin said today.

    Maritime port of Chittagong has been advised to hoist warning signal No seven and Mongla port signal No five.

    Bijli, the season’s first cyclonic storm (with ecp 992 hpa) over northwest bay and adjoining west central bay, moved slightly northeastwards on the same area at 6:00am.

    The coastal districts of Chittagong, Noakhali, Feni, Laxmipur, Bhola, Barisal Chandpur and their offshore islands and chars will come under danger signal No seven.

    The coastal districts of Cox’s Bazar and offshore islands and chars will come under danger signal number six.

    Maritime port of Mongla has been advised to lower local warning signal No four but instead hoist danger signal No five.

    The coastal districts of Patuakhali, Barguna, Pirojpur, Jhalakathi, Bagerhat, Khulna, Satkhira, and their offshore islands and chars will remain under danger signal No five.

    The cyclone was centred about 525 kms southwest of Chittagong Port, 485 kms southwest of Cox’s Bazar port and 360 kms south-southwest of Mongla Port.

    Under the influence of the storm, the coastal districts of Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong, Noakhali, Feni, Laxmipur, Bhola, Barisal, Patuakhali, Barguna, Chandpur, Pirojpur, Jhalakathi, Bagerhat, Khulna, Satkhira and their offshore islands and chars are likely to experience heavy rain accompanied by squally wind speed up to 120 kph with the passage of the storm.

    The low-lying areas of the coastal districts of Cox’s Bazar, Chittagong, Noakhali, Feni, Laxmipur, Bhola, Barisal, Patuakhali, Barguna, Chandpur, Pirojpur, Jhalakathi, Bagerhat, Khulna, Satkhira and their offshore islands and chars are likely to be inundated by storm surge of height seven to ten feet above normal astronomical tide.

    Under its influence deep convection is taking place over north Bay. Squally weather may affect the maritime ports.

    Maximum sustained wind speed within 54 kms of the cyclone centre is about 70 kph rising to 90 kph in gusts or squalls.

    Sea will remain very rough around the storm centre.

    All fishing boats and trawlers over north Bay must remain in shelter till further notice.

    thedailystar
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:26 AM  
    People move to higher grounds in fear of 'Bijli'
    Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – In the wake of cyclone 'Bijli' warning being issued, people in the Cyclone 'Nargis' devastated region in Irrawaddy Division are reportedly moving to safer areas inland, eyewitnesses said.

    "A lot of rural people moved into towns yesterday and today. The people from almost every village are moving into the town area,” a local resident of Latputta Township in Irrawaddy Division told Mizzima on Friday.

    “They had a bitter experience during Cyclone 'Nargis'. The wind is still blowing. And so more than a thousand people have moved to our town," added the local.

    Hundreds of villagers from the more than 12 village tracts including Kanyinkone and Ywamagyi in Latputta Township are now reportedly taking temporary shelter relatives and friends' houses and local Buddhist monasteries in the town areas including Suutaungpye and Thayettaw have been occupied, the local said.

    A woman villager in Thingankone village said, "People from different villages including Taungalay and Aukpyunewa have come to our village this morning. Now they are living at their friends' houses and monasteries.”

    She said, the whole of Aukpyunewa village have arrived to her Thingankone village, after hearing the warning of an impending cyclone announced by state radio and television.

    “Our village is on slightly higher ground. Many died when Cyclone Nargis swept the area. There are no boats now to go to Pathein and other places. Now we are getting ready with our belongings," she added.

    Like her, she said, villagers in the delta, which was hit-hard by Cyclone Nargis in May 2008, were scared following the announcement made on government-owned television ‘MRTV 4 channel’.

    She predicts that more villagers will be coming over in search of shelter, as people have become aware of the impacts of a Cyclone.

    “We are taking precautions unlike earlier," a resident from Bogale town said.

    The state-run radio broadcast that a storm with the epicentre in Bay of Bengal is moving towards the Burmese coast and its surface wind speed may reach up to 80 miles per hour.

    "The tidal wave and sea surge may reach 6 to 8 feet, along the Rakhine [Arakan] coastline and 4 to 6 feet along the Irrawaddy coastline while the storm crosses the Burmese coast. The highest tidal wave will be experienced along Kyaukphyu and Thandwe coastline," the announcement said.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:13 AM  
    Tropical Storm BIJLI forecast and strike probability
    Friday, April 17, 2009


    Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bangladesh
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    BURMA

    probability for TS is 90% currently
    India
    probability for TS is 80% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
    probability for TS is 90% currently
    Cox's Bazar (21.4 N, 92.5 E)
    probability for TS is 85% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 17 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:32 PM  
    Cyclone "Bijli" forecastmaps and Warnings!
    STORM WARNING FOR:
    CHITTAGONG
    COX's BAZAR
    BARISA
    KHULRA
    COMILLA





    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 3:50 PM  
    Latest satlellite images Cyclone "Bijli"



    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:38 PM  
    Cyclone "Bijli" forecastmap
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:33 PM  
    Cyclone "Bijli" forecast
    WTIO31 PGTW 170900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 010
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    170600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 89.0E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 89.0E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    171800Z --- 21.5N 91.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    180600Z --- 22.0N 92.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    181800Z --- 22.4N 93.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    170900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 89.5E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
    SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
    ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
    17/0130Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS
    CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B
    HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTRO-
    PICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
    INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW BALANCES THE
    FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
    WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
    TO 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
    SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DISSIPATE
    RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
    IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
    AT 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
    NNNN

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:31 PM  
    Cyclone may hit Bengal in 48 hours, 6 districts on alert
    Kolkata: Six districts in West Bengal were put on alert on Thursday in view of cyclone Bijli, which lay centred 680 kms to the south and south-west of Kolkata.

    “The cyclone is likely to move in a north-westerly direction,” a regional meteorological department official said. The cyclone is likely to hit West Bengal in the next 48 hours.

    State Relief Minister Mortaza Hossain said six cyclone-prone districts — Midnapore West, Midnapore East, South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas, and parts of Hooghy and Howrah — have been alerted to tackle any eventuality.

    “The cyclone may hit the Orissa coast. Later, it may affect either West Bengal or Bangladesh. We have alerted the district magistrates of these districts,” Hossain said. An emergency control room has been set up in the state relief department. he added.

    The Met department has said that strong gale at 60-70 km/per hour to 80 km/per hour is likely to prevail along and off the Orissa coast during the next 48 hours, accompanied by rain or thunder showers.

    “Heavy rainfall and isolated thunder squall is likely in the coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal. The sea will be very rough and fishermen are advised not to venture into sea,” said an official of the Alipore Met department.

    Accordingly, the cyclone centre is transmitting local cautionary signal at Gopalpur, Puri, Paradip and Chandbali. “We have received a warning that the storm is moving towards Paradip and Visakhapatnam and from Paradip it is likely to move towards Sagar Islands in West Bengal. It is likely to be diverted to Bangladesh. We have informed all the port users and ship owners to take adequate measures,” said an official of the Kolkata Port Trust.


    indianexpress
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:19 PM  
    Cyclone alert for coastal areas
    KOLKATA, April 16: The National Disaster Management Authority, New Delhi, and the Regional Meteorological Centre, Kolkata, today issued a caution stating that a cyclonic storm could hit coastal parts of the state in the next 48 hours.
    The cyclonic trough, named Bijli, formed over the west central part of the Bay of Bengal, was centred at about 380 km away from Paradeep at 8.30 a.m. today. The warning issued also stated that the cyclone is likely to get more intense and move towards the north and north-west before taking a curved route.

    Heavy rainfall or thundershowers were predicted for some coastal districts as well as a few places along the Gangetic West Bengal.

    The state has been asked to ask the fishermen in these areas not to venture out into the sea for the next 48 hours, as a strong gale with a speed of upto 80 km per hour might blow over the coastal areas and the sea would be very rough.

    The state government has put the coastal districts on full alert following the advisory.

    A senior official at Writers’ Buildings said that all the district magistrates have been asked to put the disaster management cell on alert so that losses could be minimised if the cyclone hits the state.

    The state government has taken initiatives to keep the disaster management cell ready to handle a crisis of this sort. A meeting was held at Writers’ Buildings in this regard a few days ago.

    “As per the warning, the cyclone could hit the adjoining coastal districts of Orissa in the next 48 hours. We have asked the officials of coastal districts to be ready to handle the situation in an efficient manner if the storm hits. We have already taken all possible steps," an official said.

    thestatesman
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:17 PM  
    Thousands flee as cyclone nears Bangladesh
    DHAKA (AFP) — Weather forecasters in Bangladesh said a tropical cyclone would hit the country's southern coast late Friday, as thousands of people in the path of the storm were evacuated from coastal areas.

    Cyclonic Storm Bijli was expected to intensify in the Bay of Bengal before making landfall near the southern port city of Chittagong.

    "We have told everyone living in low lying areas to head to their nearest cyclone shelter," said Mohammad Manzoor Alam Bhuiyan, an administrator of one of the affected districts along the 300-kilometre (186-mile) coast.

    Alam expected the more than 500 cyclone shelters in his region, which have a collective capacity of 500,000 people, to be full before the end of the day.

    "We have arranged dry food and clean drinking water. There is a medical team on standby."

    Boats had been brought to shore and fishermen were urged not to sail. Flights to and from Cox's Bazar and Chittagong were also suspended.

    More than 3,500 people were killed during Cyclone Sidr in November 2007, the second-strongest storm recorded in Bangladesh.

    In 1970, some half a million people died when a cyclone hit the impoverished country, while an estimated 138,000 people died as a result of a cyclonic surge in 1991.

    The lower death tolls in 1991 and 2007 were attributed to a network of cyclone shelters and a warning system introduced after the 1970 disaster.

    In neighbouring Myanmar, the military-run government's meteorological service urged residents of the country's western coastal region to stay away from the sea for two days until Bijli had passed.

    "All vessels... in Myanmar waters along the Rakhine coast are advised to take precautionary measures by navigating away from the area exposed to the threat from rough seas and strong winds until 18 April 2009," it said.

    In April last year Myanmar was hit by Cyclone Nargis, which left an estimated 138,000 people dead or missing and affected some 2.4 million people, mostly in its southwest delta region.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:15 PM  
    Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast and strike probability CAT 1 or above
    Tropical Storm BIJLI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Bangladesh
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    India
    probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    BURMA
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Chittagong (22.3 N, 91.8 E)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:11 PM  
    Latest satellite image Cyclone "Bijli"
    Thursday, April 16, 2009
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:34 PM  
    TROPICAL CYCLONE "BIJLI" FORECAST





















    WTIO31 PGTW 161500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 007
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    161200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 86.6E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 86.6E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    170000Z --- 19.4N 87.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    171200Z --- 20.3N 89.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    180000Z --- 21.2N 91.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    181200Z --- 21.5N 93.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
    AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
    ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0800Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
    WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
    KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MYANMAR. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
    GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH, ENHANCING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION FOR
    TC 01B. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
    PHILOSOPHY-THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 36
    HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
    UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN DISSIPATE
    NEAR THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC
    MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
    NNNN

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:53 PM  
    CYCLONE WARNING FOR BURMA / BANGLADESH


    Tropical Cyclone Bijli (01B) is gathering strength as it churns through the northern Bay of Bengal.

    Located approximately 350-400 mph south-southwest of Kolkata, India, Bijli will continue to move in a northeasterly motion and eventually a more easterly track Friday and Saturday. On this track, Bijli will encounter a favorable environment for further strengthening prior to making landfall late Saturday or Saturday night near the border of Myanmar and Bangladesh. Winds could become sustained at hurricane strength (75 mph) at the time of landfall.




    Outer rain bands are currently impacting eastern India, southern Bangladesh and western parts of Myanmar. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across southern Bangladesh and Myanmar as Bijli approaches.

    In addition to the flooding rainfall of 10 inches or more and strong winds common with tropical cyclones, a dangerous storm surge is expected across western Myanmar prior to and during landfall.

    Myanmar was struck by powerful Cyclone Nargis on May 2, 2008, resulting in the worst natural disaster in Myanmar's recorded history. Nargis struck the Irrawaddy Delta, an area farther south than where Bijli is expected to make landfall. While Bijli is not expected to be as strong as Nargis, devastating flooding is expected later this weekend, lasting into early next week.

    Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:01 PM  
    Tropical Cyclone Bijli Could Strike Myanmar Near Anniversary of Nargis
    AccuWeather.com reports Tropical Cyclone Bijli (01B) is gathering strength as it churns through the northern Bay of Bengal.

    The current position has the center of the storm 350-400 miles south-southwest of Kolkata, India, and has been slowly moving north-northeastward over the past several hours. High pressure over northern India will gradually steer the system more to the northeast and east Friday and Saturday.

    Water temperatures in Bijli's path are in the low 80s, and upper-level wind shear remains light. These ingredients should allow Bijli to strengthen prior to landfall Saturday or Saturday night. There is a good possibility that winds will become sustained at hurricane strength (75 mph) at the time of landfall.

    Outer rain bands are currently impacting eastern India, southern Bangladesh and western parts of Myanmar. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across southern Bangladesh and Myanmar as Bijli approaches. Landfall is likely near the border of Bangladesh and Myanmar late Saturday or Saturday night local time.

    In addition to the torrential rainfall, flooding and strong winds common with tropical cyclones, a dangerous storm surge is expected across western Myanmar prior to and during landfall Saturday and Saturday night.

    Myanmar was struck by Cyclone Nargis on May 2 of last year. Nargis resulted in the worst natural disaster in Myanmar's recorded history. While Bijli is not expected to be as strong as Nargis, widespread flooding is anticipated.

    newsblaze
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:50 PM  
    Cyclonic storm forms on Bay of Bengal off Gopalpur coast
    Bhubaneswar, Apr 16 : The cyclonic storm 'Bijili', centered in Bay of Bengal, about 330 km from Gopalpur coast, is likely to intensify further and move in north-north-westerly direction.

    The system, which was formed 48 hours ago in the Bay of Bengal, turned from a low pressure into depression, then deep depression and finally into the cyclonic storm stage, cyclone warning centre sources said.

    "The system is likely to intensify further and move in a north-north-westerly direction for some more time," director in-charge of the local Met centre K Subudhi said.

    The cyclone warning centre said under its influence, strong gale having 60-70 km/ph to 80 km/ph wind speed was likely to prevail along and off Orissa coast during the next 48 hours accompanied by rain or thunder showers.

    "The system lay centred at 5:30 am today near latitude 16.5 degree north and longitude 86 degree east over central Bay of Bengal," Subudhi said.

    The cyclone centre has asked fishermen not to venture into the sea and is transmitting local cautionary signal at Gopalpur, Puri, Paradip and Chandbali.

    samaylive
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:48 PM  
    Bangladesh warns of storm in Bay of Bengal
    Wednesday, April 15, 2009
    DHAKA, April 15 (Reuters) - Bangladesh advised ports to hoist cautionary signals and asked all fishing boats and trawlers not to venture into deep seas as a tropical storm brewed in the Bay of Bengal, the meteorological department said on Wednesday.

    The storm packing winds up to 50 km (31 miles) was 1,135 km (710 miles) southwest of the country's main Chittagong port at 0000 GMT.

    "It (the storm) is likely to intensify and move in a northwesterly (towards the Indian coast) direction," said a statement from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department.

    Storms batter the poor south Asian country every year. Cyclone Sidr ravaged its coasts in November 2007, killing nearly 3,500 people and displacing some two million.

    (Reporting by Nizam Ahmed; Editing by Sugita Katyal)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:54 PM  
    Tropical Cyclone "JADE" forecast and strike probability
    Monday, April 6, 2009
    Tropical Storm JADE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maroantseta
    (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
    probability for TS is 85% currently
    Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 6 Apr, 2009 6:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:33 PM  
    Dozens dead, many hurt as big quake hits Italy
    By Deepa Babington

    L'AQUILA, Italy (Reuters) - A powerful earthquake struck a huge swath of central Italy as residents slept on Monday morning, killing more than 50 people and making up to 50,000 homeless.

    Most of the dead were in L'Aquila, a 13th-century mountain city about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome, and surrounding towns and villages in the Abruzzo region.

    Houses, historic churches and other buildings were demolished in the worst quake to hit Italy in nearly 30 years.

    "I woke up hearing what sounded like a bomb," said Angela Palumbo, 87, said as she walked on a street in L'Aquila.

    "We managed to escape with things falling all around us. Everything was shaking, furniture falling. I don't remember ever seeing anything like this in my life," she said.

    Interior Minister Roberto Maroni visited the area and said the death toll had surpassed 50.

    Luca Spoletini, a Civil Protection Department spokesman, said the quake may have made up to 50,000 people homeless.

    Luca Spoletini, a Civil Protection Department spokesman, said the quake may have made up to 50,000 people homeless. Some 26 cities and towns were seriously damaged.

    In the small town of Onna alone, 10 people were killed, said a Reuters photographer who saw a mother and her infant daughter carried away in the same coffin.

    Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi canceled a trip to Moscow and declared a national emergency, which would free up funds for aid and rebuilding. Pope Benedict said he was saying a special prayer for the victims.

    Older houses and buildings made of stone, particularly in outlying villages that have not seen much restoration, collapsed like straw houses.

    Hospitals appealed for help from doctors and nurses throughout Italy. The stench of gas filled some parts of the mountain towns and villages as mains ruptured.

    Residents of Rome, which is rarely hit by seismic activity, were woken by the quake, which rattled furniture and swayed lights in most of central Italy. It struck shortly after 3:30 a.m. (0130 GMT) and registered between 5.8 and 6.3 magnitude.

    "MY FATHER IS SURELY DEAD"

    "When the quake hit, I rushed out to my father's house and opened the main door and everything had collapsed. My father is surely dead. I called for help but no-one was around," said Camillo Berardi in L'Aquila.

    Rubble was strewn throughout the city of 68,000 people and nearby towns, blocking roads and hampering rescue teams.

    Old women wailed and residents armed with nothing but bare hands helped firefighters and rescue workers tear through the rubble. Debris was strewn throughout the city and nearby towns, blocking roads and hampering rescue teams.

    "Thousands of buildings collapsed or were damaged," said Agostino Miozzo, a Civil Protection official.

    A resident in L'Aquila standing by an apartment block that had been reduced to the height of an adult said: "This building was four storeys high."

    Some cars were buried by the rubble.

    In another part of the city, residents tried to hush the wailing of grief to try to pinpoint the sound of a crying baby.

    There were numerous reports of some the area's centuries-old Romanesque and Renaissance churches collapsing.

    Part of a university residence and a hotel collapsed in L'Aquila and at least one person was still trapped.

    The quake brought down the bell tower of a church in the center of L'Aquila. Bridges and highways in the mountainous area were closed as a precaution.

    The quake was the latest and strongest in a series to hit the L'Aquila area on Sunday and Monday. Earthquakes can be particularly dangerous in parts of Italy because so many buildings are centuries-old.

    About 2,700 people died in an earthquake in the south in 1980.

    (Writing by Philip Pullella; Additional reporting by Reuters Rome bureau; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:54 PM  
    Quake hits central Italy northeast of Rome
    ROME (Reuters) - A 6.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Italy Monday about 53 miles northeast of Rome, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.

    A Reuters correspondent in Rome said he and his family had been woken by the quake.

    No other details were immediately available.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:54 PM  
    Tropical Cyclone "JADE" Cat.1 forecast and strike probability
    Sunday, April 5, 2009
    Tropical Cyclone JADE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Madagascar
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Antalaha
    (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maroantseta
    (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 5 Apr, 2009 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:41 PM  
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