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  • Cyclone "Bijli" forecast
    Friday, April 17, 2009
    WTIO31 PGTW 170900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 010
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    170600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 89.0E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 89.0E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    171800Z --- 21.5N 91.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    180600Z --- 22.0N 92.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    181800Z --- 22.4N 93.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    170900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 89.5E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
    SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
    ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
    17/0130Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS
    CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B
    HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTRO-
    PICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
    INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW BALANCES THE
    FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
    WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
    TO 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
    SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DISSIPATE
    RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
    IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
    AT 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
    NNNN

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:31 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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