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  • TROPICAL CYCLONE "BIJLI" FORECAST
    Thursday, April 16, 2009





















    WTIO31 PGTW 161500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (BIJLI) WARNING NR 007
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    161200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 86.6E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 86.6E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    170000Z --- 19.4N 87.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    171200Z --- 20.3N 89.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    180000Z --- 21.2N 91.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    181200Z --- 21.5N 93.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
    AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
    ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0800Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
    WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
    KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MYANMAR. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
    GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH, ENHANCING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION FOR
    TC 01B. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
    PHILOSOPHY-THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 36
    HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
    UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN DISSIPATE
    NEAR THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC
    MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
    NNNN

    Joint Typhoon Warning Center
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:53 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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