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  • Latest image Cat.4 Hurricane JIMENA
    Monday, August 31, 2009


    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:03 PM  
    JIMENA ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
    HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
    200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

    ...JIMENA ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
    BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
    WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
    INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
    TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
    NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND
    NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE
    WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
    AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
    WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
    305 MILES...495 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

    JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
    TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
    JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
    CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...
    WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE
    STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
    DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
    UNTIL LANDFALL.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
    HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

    JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
    INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
    PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
    ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

    A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
    SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...18.5N 109.2W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
    PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:30 PM  
    Intense Hurricane JIMENA forecast and strike probability
    Intense Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours


    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas
    (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit TSR

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.


    Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:22 PM  
    JIMENA BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
    Sunday, August 30, 2009
    HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
    200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009

    ...JIMENA BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...

    INTERESTS IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
    PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
    STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST OR ABOUT 305
    MILES...490 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 550 MILES
    ...885 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

    JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
    CENTER OF JIMENA WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE WEST
    COAST OF MEXICO.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
    ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
    DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND JIMENA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
    FOUR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
    MILES...110 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...16.0N 105.7W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    800 AM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:59 PM  
    Intense Hurricane JIMENA forecast and strike probability
    Intense Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit TSR

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:52 PM  
    Tropical Storm DANNY forecast and strike probability
    Thursday, August 27, 2009
    Tropical Storm DANNY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the United States

    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:21 PM  
    BILL EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
    Saturday, August 22, 2009
    HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
    500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

    ...BILL EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXTENDED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI AND HAS
    EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE
    NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
    TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
    AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT
    ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT
    ACONI.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
    WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
    LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND FOR THE
    WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE.
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
    THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
    FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
    MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
    CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...
    480 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 585
    MILES...940 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

    BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
    NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
    HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
    TODAY OR TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS
    BILL MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
    MILES...445 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

    TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
    SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
    RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...AND NEAR 1 INCH OVER OUTER
    CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.

    LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
    BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE LARGE SWELLS
    SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE
    ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
    LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
    CURRENTS.

    ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...37.1N 68.8W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:08 PM  
    Intense Hurricane BILL forecast and strike probability
    Thursday, August 20, 2009



    Intense Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Halifax
    (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit TSR

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 20 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:17 PM  
    Latest satellite image Hurricane "BILL"
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:58 PM  
    THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA
    HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
    500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

    ...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD...
    SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

    AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 595 MILES...
    960 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1080 MILES...1735 KM...SOUTHEAST
    OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

    BILL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
    KM/HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
    TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THIS
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
    OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
    UNITED STATES EARLY SATURDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
    THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
    ARE LIKELY DURING THE 12 TO 24 HOURS...BILL STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
    TO REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON FRIDAY.

    BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
    OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
    STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

    LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
    AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
    THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
    SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
    LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
    YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

    ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...23.8N 63.2W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:46 PM  
    LARGE HURRICANE BILL RACING NORTHWESTWARD...SPREADING HIGH SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC


    HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
    200 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009

    ...LARGE HURRICANE BILL RACING NORTHWESTWARD...SPREADING HIGH SWELLS
    OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
    THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
    GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
    STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 645
    MILES...1035 KM SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

    BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
    THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH FRIDAY. ON THIS
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
    OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
    UNITED STATES EARLY SATURDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON
    FRIDAY.

    BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
    OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
    STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
    HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

    LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
    AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND
    THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
    SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
    LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
    YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...23.2N 62.6W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:36 PM  
    Intense Hurricane BILL forecast and strike probability
    Intense Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Canada
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit TSR

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:35 AM  
    POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    Wednesday, August 19, 2009
    HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
    1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

    ...POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...

    INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF BILL
    .

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...
    610 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1080 MILES
    ...1735 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

    BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
    THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A
    GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

    DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 PLANE AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
    DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
    UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
    FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...PRIMARILY TO
    THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

    LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
    THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
    SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
    PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
    SATURDAY.

    ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...18.7N 56.3W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:16 PM  
    BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
    HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
    500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

    ...BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

    INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF BILL.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...
    740 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
    AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
    24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS
    HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
    24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
    INVESTIGATE BILL.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
    175 MILES...280 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

    LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
    THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
    SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
    PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
    SATURDAY.

    ...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...18.0N 54.9W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:29 PM  
    BILL APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
    Tuesday, August 18, 2009
    HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
    500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

    ...BILL APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...

    INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    BILL
    .

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
    STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
    BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNGER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.6
    NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM...EAST OF
    THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
    WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
    A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE
    OF BILL WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
    BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
    MILES...280 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
    962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...16.6N 52.2W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:10 PM  
    Satellite image Hurricane BILL


    Navy-NRL
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:41 PM  
    Aircraft recon into Bill: Bill is cat 1 Hurricane
    Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
    Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:19Z
    Date: August 18, 2009
    Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
    Storm Number: 03
    Storm Name: Bill (in the North Atlantic basin)
    Mission Number: 1
    Observation Number: 28
    Time:19:11:30Z
    Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
    Using Estimated Reduction Factor:81.3 knots (~ 93.4 mph)Category One Hurricane
    Extrapolated Surface Pressure:977.9 mb (~ 28.88 inHg)
    Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) :From 141° at 112 knots (From the SE at ~ 128.8 mph)
    Peak (10 sec. Avg.)Flight Level Wind:114 knots (~ 131.1 mph)
    Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind:82 knots (~ 94.3 mph)

    Hurricane Hunters
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:09 PM  
    Hurricane Hunters aircraft recon data :Hurricane BILL
    Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
    Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 18:18Z
    Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
    Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2009
    Storm Name: Bill (in the North Atlantic basin)
    Mission Number: 1
    Observation Number: 07
    A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 17:46:10Z
    B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°14'N 51°44'W (16.2333N 51.7333W)
    B. Center Fix Location: 570 miles (917 km) to the ENE (68°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
    C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,793m (9,163ft) at 700mb
    D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
    E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
    F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 49° at 94kts (From the NE at ~ 108.2mph)
    G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
    H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 962mb (28.41 inHg)
    I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,076m (10,092ft)
    J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,078m (10,098ft)
    K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
    K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
    L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
    M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
    M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 60° to 240° (ENE to WSW)
    M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
    M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
    N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
    N. Fix Level: 700mb
    O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
    O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
    Remarks Section:
    Maximum Flight Level Wind: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:51:50Z
    Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:51:50Z

    Hurricane Hunters/NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:44 PM  
    BILL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EXPECTED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON
    HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
    1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

    ...BILL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EXPECTED TO
    INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON...

    INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    BILL.


    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
    STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
    1140 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
    WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
    FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
    OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED
    TO INVESTIGATE BILL THIS AFTERNOON.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
    MILES...280 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...15.9N 51.2W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:03 PM  
    Hurricane BILL forecast and strike probability
    Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton
    (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit TSR

    To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with your requested change(s).

    To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with "unsubscribe" in your email subject line.

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.



    Storm Alert issued at 18 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:17 PM  
    BILL LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY
    Sunday, August 16, 2009
    TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
    500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

    ...BILL LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY...

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1440
    MILES...2315 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

    BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
    AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
    TOMORROW.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...12.8N 40.0W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:04 PM  
    Tropical Storm Claudette threatens Gulf Coast
    By Jim Loney
    MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Claudette, the third of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Sunday in the Gulf of Mexico east of the heaviest concentration of U.S. energy platforms, as two other storms, Ana and Bill, raced across the Atlantic.

    The six-month season got off to a slow start with no storms in the first 2-1/2 months but exploded this weekend as three tropical storms formed in just over a day.

    The new system was expected to move ashore in the Florida panhandle, although at least one computer model showed it tracking farther west and hitting land near Mobile, Alabama. The greatest number of offshore oil and gas rigs span the coast from the mouth of Mobile Bay to Texas.

    Claudette had sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (63 kilometers per hour) and was located about 200 miles southeast of Pensacola, Florida, at 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

    A tropical storm warning was in effect from the Alabama- Florida border eastward to the Suwannee River in Florida.

    Energy traders closely watch storms in the Gulf, which is home to almost half of U.S. refinery capacity, a quarter of oil production and 15 percent of natural gas output.

    The small islands of the eastern Caribbean were on high alert for the possible arrival of two cyclones within days.

    A tropical storm watch, alerting residents to storm conditions within 36 hours, was extended to Guadeloupe and other French islands, as well as Dominica. It now stretches from Puerto Rico -- home to about 4 million people -- to Dominica.

    Ana, a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph, was about 430 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands and was hurtling westward at about 23 mph, the hurricane center said. It was expected to reach the islands by early Monday.

    ANA ON TRACK FOR HAITI

    Ana was not expected to become a hurricane in the next five days but was on a track that could take it to Haiti, a poor Caribbean nation vulnerable to deadly floods from even weak tropical storms due to massive deforestation, and Cuba, which was hit hard by three hurricanes last year.

    The bigger threat could come from Bill, which forecasters expected to whip up into a "major" Category 3 hurricane, with winds of more than 110 mph, by Friday. Hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale are the most destructive type.

    Bill's sustained winds increased to 60 mph on Sunday but it was still 1,555 miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands. It was headed to the west-northwest at about 16 mph, the Miami-based hurricane center said.

    On its most likely track, Bill would be well north of the northernmost Caribbean islands, headed in the general direction of the U.S. east coast, by Friday, forecasters said.

    The busiest part of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is from about the last week of August to mid-October.

    Forecasters expected this season to be a bit less active than recent years, due in part to the formation of an El Nino event in the eastern Pacific.

    The warm-water phenomenon tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic by increasing wind shear, which can tear apart nascent hurricanes.

    (Editing by Eric Beech)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:24 PM  
    CLAUDETTE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
    TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
    500 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

    ...CLAUDETTE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT
    40 MILES... 60 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
    120 MILES...190 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

    CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
    THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND ON THIS
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA
    PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
    PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A MARINE TOWER...STATION SGOF1...LOCATED ABOUT
    25 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA RECENTLY REPORTED A
    10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH...82 KM/HR.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
    BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND
    EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

    STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5
    FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
    INCLUDING THE BIG BEND.

    ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...29.5N 85.6W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:45 PM  
    AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CLAUDETTE STRONGER
    TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
    200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

    ...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CLAUDETTE STRONGER...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT
    40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160
    MILES...255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

    CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
    THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND ON THIS FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
    THIS EVENING.

    DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
    POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS
    1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
    BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWESTERN
    GEORGIA NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

    STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5
    FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
    INCLUDING THE BIG BEND.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...29.1N 85.1W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:41 PM  
    Aircraft recon data TS "ANA"
    Ana - Mission Number 01 (Updated on our site at 18:24Z)

    Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
    Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 18:17Z
    Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
    Storm Number: 02
    Storm Name: Ana (in the North Atlantic basin)
    Mission Number: 1
    Observation Number: 05

    Mandatory Data...

    Observation Time: Sunday, 18:16Z
    Radar Capability: Yes
    Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
    Coordinates: 14.4N 57.4W
    Location: 174 miles (280 km) to the ENE (59°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
    Turbulence: None
    Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
    Pressure Altitude: 440 meters
    Flight Level Wind: From 100° at 14 knots (From the E at ~ 16.1 mph)
    - The above is a spot wind.
    - Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
    Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
    Flight Level Dew Point: 13°C
    Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
    Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (extrapolated)

    Optional Data...

    Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
    Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

    Remarks Section...

    Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 11 knots (~ 12.7mph)

    Hurricane Hunters/NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:24 PM  
    Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 6 hours
    probability for TS is 85% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit TSR


    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.


    Storm Alert issued at 16 Aug, 2009 18:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:21 PM  
    AIRCRAFT FINDS ANA POORLY ORGANIZED...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM
    TROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
    200 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

    ...AIRCRAFT FINDS ANA POORLY ORGANIZED...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
    U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
    ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...ST.
    MARTIN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...DOMINICA...GUADELOUPE...AND ST.
    BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
    HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
    CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
    LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
    ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST OR ABOUT 240
    MILES...385 KM...EAST OF THE DOMINICA.

    ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD
    ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
    COUPLE OF DAYS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
    INDICATE THAT ANA IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND COULD DISSIPATE AS A
    TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
    THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
    BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
    OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...14.9N 57.8W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:13 PM  
    Aircraft Recon data TD 04
    Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
    Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:50Z
    Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
    Tropical Depression: Number 4 (in the North Atlantic basin)
    Mission Number: 1
    Observation Number: 05
    A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 17:33:00Z
    B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°08'N 85°05'W (29.1333N 85.0833W)
    B. Center Fix Location: 80 miles (129 km) to the SSE (154°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
    C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 753m (2,470ft) at 925mb
    D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
    E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (94°) of center fix
    F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 45kts (From the SE at ~ 51.8mph)
    G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the E (84°) of center fix
    H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
    I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
    J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
    K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
    K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
    L. Eye Character: Not Available
    M. Eye Shape: Not Available
    N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
    N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
    O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
    O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
    Remarks Section:
    Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:45:00Z
    Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
    Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 6 nautical miles to the W (276°) from the flight level center

    Hurricane Hunters/NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:08 PM  
    DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE WILL INVESTIGATE
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
    1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

    ...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AIRCRAFT
    RECONNAISSANCE WILL INVESTIGATE SOON...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT
    75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND
    ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

    THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...
    24 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF
    FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
    FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO REACHING THE
    COASTLINE.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
    BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWESTERN
    GEORGIA NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

    STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5
    FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
    INCLUDING THE BIG BEND.

    ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...28.7N 84.6W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
    PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:37 PM  
    ANA CONTINUES WESTWARD...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE TO INVESTIGATE
    TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
    1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

    ...ANA CONTINUES WESTWARD...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE TO INVESTIGATE
    THIS AFTERNOON...

    AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
    FOR DOMINICA
    . A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
    STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
    SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
    CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
    LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST OR ABOUT 430
    MILES...690 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. IS EXPECTED
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ON THIS TRACK ANA SHOULD REACH THE
    LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
    OF DAYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
    THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
    BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
    OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

    ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...14.8N 55.8W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
    PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:08 PM  
    Storms Ana, Bill race west; hurricane expected
    By Pascal Fletcher

    MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storms Ana and Bill, the first named storms of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, were racing westward with gale force winds, and Bill was expected to develop into a hurricane in the next few days, the National Hurricane Center said.

    Ana, whose maximum sustained winds were near 40 miles per hour, sometimes gusting higher, was bearing down on the Leeward Islands and was expected to be over them on Monday. But the Miami-based NHC said this storm was not expected to turn into a hurricane in the next five days.

    At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Ana was located about 710 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands, and the NHC said it was "racing westward with no signs of strengthening".

    Bill, also packing winds near 40 miles per hour was located about 905 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

    "Bill is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days and become even stronger thereafter," the NHC said, and its five-day forecast track showed it could threaten Puerto Rico and eventually the Bahamas.

    With the onset of Ana, the government of the Netherland Antilles issued a tropical storm watch for St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius, and the Leeward Islands and British and U.S. Virgin Islands also issued similar warnings.

    The 2009 hurricane season, which runs from June through November, has gotten off to a late start. By this time last year, there had already been five named storms in the Atlantic basin.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted this year's Atlantic hurricane season will see normal to below-normal activity, with seven to 11 tropical storms and three to six hurricanes.

    Energy traders watch for storms that could enter the Gulf of Mexico and threaten U.S. oil and natural gas platforms and refineries along the coast. Commodities traders watch storms that could hit crops such as citrus and cotton in Florida and other states along the coast to Texas.

    (Writing by Pascal Fletcher, editing by Philip Barbara)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:45 PM  
    Tropical Depression AL04 forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Depression AL04 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the United States

    probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit TSR


    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    Storm Alert issued at 16 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:59 AM  
    Satellite image of Tropical Storm "ANA"
    Saturday, August 15, 2009
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:34 PM  
    Tropical storm Ana is forecast to strike Guadeloupe at about 08:00 GMT on 17 August

    Tropical storm Ana is forecast to strike Guadeloupe at about 08:00 GMT on 17 August. Data supplied by the US National Hurricane Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 16.3 N, 60.2 W. Ana is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 83 km/h (51 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.


    The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:25 PM  
    ANA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE DUTCH LEEWARD ISLANDS


    TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
    500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

    ...ANA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
    DUTCH LEEWARD ISLANDS...

    AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES
    HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST.
    EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
    CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
    36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
    ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.
    ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
    THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT
    805 MILES...1300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
    THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    ON MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...14.4N 50.0W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
    PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:57 PM  
    Tropical Storm BILL forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Storm BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Antigua and Barbuda

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours
    Montserrat
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours
    Guadeloupe
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 10% in about 117 hours
    the Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 10% in about 117 hours
    Anguilla
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 15% in about 117 hours
    the Netherlands Antilles
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 10% in about 93 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 10% in about 93 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas
    (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 10% in about 117 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit TSR
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:56 PM  
    Tropical storm ÄNA" Forms over Pacific, 1,100 Miles From Mexico


    INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
    PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
    MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

    ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
    WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
    BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
    41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    1100 AM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:35 AM  
    Hurricane Forms Over Pacific, 1,100 Miles From Mexico
    Friday, August 14, 2009
    By Brian Lysaght

    Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Guillermo formed over the eastern Pacific Ocean, 1,100 miles (1,770 kilometers) west- southwest of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

    The hurricane had sustained winds of almost 75 miles per hour and was heading west at 15 mph, the center said on its Web site today just after 3:30 a.m. Mexico City time. The system may intensify today and then weaken to tropical-storm strength tomorrow as it moves over cooler water, according to the center.

    The five-day forecast for Guillermo’s possible track shows the center of the storm about 300 miles northeast of Hawaii on Aug. 18, as a tropical depression, the agency said.

    A tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 38 miles per hour or less. At 39 mph to 73 mph, the systems are tropical storms. Hurricane strength begins at 74 mph.

    bloomberg
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:52 PM  
    GUILLERMO STRENGTHENS
    Thursday, August 13, 2009
    TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009
    200 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2009

    ...GUILLERMO STRENGTHENS...

    AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST OR ABOUT
    805 MILES...1295 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA.

    GUILLERMO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...
    26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
    THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
    FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...16.9N 120.5W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    800 AM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:33 PM  
    Tropical storm Felicia approaching Hawaii
    Monday, August 10, 2009
    Tropical storm Felicia continues moving toward the Hawaiian Islands. As of 0900 UTC of 10 August, Felicia is located around 21.0 N/149.2 W with maximum winds of 23 m/s and is moving to the West at 17 km/h. It is forecasted to gradually weaken for the next 24 hours. The RSMC Honolulu Hurricane Center has been closely watching the systems and providing guidance to the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the central Pacific region.For further information about severe weather, storm surge and related disaster preparedness advisories in your country, please consult the National Weather Service of your country. Visit also the Severe Weather Information Centre.

    WMO
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:24 PM  
    Felicia still a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and higher gusts
    Sunday, August 9, 2009
    TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
    NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
    1100 AM HST SUN AUG 09 2009

    …AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE CONFIRMS FELICIA STILL A TROPICAL STORM…

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII…AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY…WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI…KAHOOLAWE…LANAI…AND MOLOKAI.

    INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE OF HAWAII…INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF OAHU…KAUAI…AND NIIHAU…SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.

    AT 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 147.1 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 695 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

    FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK… THE CENTER OF FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR…OR OVER…THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

    AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FELICIA COULD STILL REACH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

    EVEN THOUGH FELICIA IS STILL EAST OF THE HAWAIIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING…A BUILDING SWELL GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST FACING SHORES OF THE EASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO EAST FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

    …SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION…
    LOCATION…21.0N 147.1W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:43 PM  
    Tropical Storm MORAKOT forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Storm MORAKOT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China

    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
    probability for TS is 75% currently
    Jinhua (29.2 N, 120.0 E)
    probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:33 PM  
    Typhoon MORAKOT forecast and strike probability
    Thursday, August 6, 2009
    Typhoon MORAKOT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours

    probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei
    (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 90% in about 72 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Fuzhou
    (26.1 N, 119.3 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours

    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours

    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)

    probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

    Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

    probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)

    probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)

    probability for TS is 55% currently

    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit
    www.tropicalstormrisk.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:28 PM  
    FELICIA WEAKENS A LITTLE
    HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
    200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

    ...FELICIA WEAKENS A LITTLE...

    AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.7 WEST OR ABOUT
    1550 MILES...2490 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1490 MILES...2395 KM...EAST OF HILO HAWAII.

    FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
    A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
    HOURS.

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
    DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA
    IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
    SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
    FELICIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...16.4N 132.7W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    800 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:42 PM  
    Typhoon MORAKOT forecast and strike probability
    Typhoon MORAKOT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Wenzhou (27.5 N, 120.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 96 hours
    Fu'an (27.1 N, 119.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Wenling (28.4 N, 121.4 E)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    tsr
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:02 AM  
    FELICIA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
    Wednesday, August 5, 2009

    HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
    ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
    200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

    ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

    AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST OR ABOUT
    1420 MILES...2280 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA.

    FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
    THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125
    MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
    FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
    MILES...195 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...14.5N 129.7W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    800 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER PEREIRA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:47 PM  
    FELICIA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE
    Tuesday, August 4, 2009
    HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
    200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

    ...FELICIA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

    AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST OR ABOUT
    1315 MILES...2115 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
    CALIFORNIA.

    FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS
    GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
    OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
    INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
    ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND FELICIA COULD BECOME A
    MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
    MILES...140 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...12.4N 126.6W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
    800 PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:40 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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