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  • Latest satellite and track images "LUPIT"
    Friday, October 16, 2009




    TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
    NORTH OF YAP AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
    OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
    TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER
    VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. AS SUCH, THE
    SYSTEM HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW AT
    55 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES (T3.5) AS WELL AS A 151730Z SATCON
    AUTOMATED DVORAK VALUE OF T3.4. A 151615Z AMSRE 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
    SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
    WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT
    24 TO 36 HOURS. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD
    TRACK SPEED AND MOVE POLEWARD SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
    TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS 22W WILL
    REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. BY TAU
    72, TS 22W SHOULD RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    A WESTERN LOBE OF THE STR LOCATED BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS TS 22W
    CONTINUES THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
    STEADILY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
    FAVORABLE. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND ECMWF
    SOLUTIONS WHICH CALL FOR THE TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING INFLUENCE
    OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND SLOW THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD SPEED
    BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
    IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z./

    navyNRL/TSR
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:05 AM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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