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  • Tropical Storm RICK forecast and strike probability
    Tuesday, October 20, 2009
    TROPICAL STORM RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 22
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
    200 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009

    ...RICK CONTINUES WITH 65 MPH WINDS...RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING
    PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

    AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITH A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
    CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD...AND FOR THE EAST COAST FROM BUENA VISTA SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    THE TROPICAL WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF BUENA VISTA TO
    LA PAZ HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MAINLAND
    MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 175
    MILES...280 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 305 MILES
    ...495 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

    RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
    MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
    WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS
    NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
    OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
    MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

    MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL
    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
    10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
    WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
    DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
    THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
    THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
    MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY
    DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...20.4N 110.1W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
    PM PDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:48 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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