| Typhoon LUPIT forecast and strike probability
| Wednesday, October 21, 2009
|Typhoon LUPIT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
|posted by Moderator Londen time 10:01 PM