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  • Latest satellite and track image Typhoon PHYAN
    Wednesday, November 11, 2009




    navyNRL/TSR
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:53 PM  
    Tropical Storm PHYAN forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Storm PHYAN is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Harnai
    (17.8 N, 73.1 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Pune (18.5 N, 73.9 E)
    probability for TS is 85% currently
    Bombay (19.1 N, 72.8 E)
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
    Daman (20.4 N, 73.0 E)
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Vijayadurg (16.6 N, 73.4 E)
    probability for TS is 60% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:49 PM  
    Tropical Storm IDA forecast and strike probability
    Monday, November 9, 2009
    Tropical Storm IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mobile
    (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

    New Orleans (30.0 N, 90.1 W)
    probability for TS is 70% currently

    Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)
    probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:49 PM  
    IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM
    ...IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

    AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG
    THE GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED
    . A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
    NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA
    RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
    OFFICE.

    AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185
    MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
    RIVER AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
    FLORIDA.

    IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
    TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
    OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA
    IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
    MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON
    TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
    MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
    EXPECTED TODAY AS IDA APPROACHES THE COAST.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

    RAINS FROM IDA WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8
    INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL
    AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
    TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
    UNITED STATES.

    A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
    3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
    EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
    WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...26.5N 88.3W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
    PM CST.

    $$
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 3:01 PM  
    Hurricane Ida aims for Gulf of Mexico oil fields
    CANCUN, Mexico (Reuters) – Hurricane Ida roared toward the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, where important oil fields are located, after killing 91 people and leaving at least another 60 missing in floods and mudslides in El Salvador.

    Ida swept past the Mexican resort of Cancun and aimed for the Gulf of Mexico but is expected to weaken gradually as it heads toward some of the oil and gas production facilities in the central Gulf, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

    The storm reached hurricane force again late on Saturday and strengthened to a Category 2 storm on Sunday with sustained winds of near 100 mph, the Miami-based hurricane center said in its 4 p.m. EST (2100 GMT) advisory.

    Some energy companies in the Gulf of Mexico were evacuating workers from offshore platforms, but so far oil and gas output had not been affected.

    The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the only terminal in the United States capable of handling the largest tankers, said it would stop unloading ships due to stormy seas.

    A quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas are produced from fields in the Gulf and the coast is home to 40 percent of the nation's refining capacity.

    The hurricane center set a hurricane watch from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Mexico Beach in northwestern Florida, but did not include the city of New Orleans. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are expected in the area within 36 hours.

    Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency on Sunday, allowing the government to mobilize troops and rescue workers.

    If Ida makes landfall in Louisiana it would be the first storm to strike the state since Hurricane Gustav came ashore in September 2008.

    DEATH TOLL RISES

    In El Salvador, rivers burst their banks and hillsides collapsed under relentless rains triggered by Ida's passage, cutting off parts of the mountainous interior from the rest of the country.

    El Salvador's government said 91 people were killed and at least 60 were missing as a result of deadly mudslides and floods.

    As of 4 p.m. EST (1800 GMT), Ida was 95 miles west-northwest of the western tip of Cuba, the hurricane center said. It was moving north-northwest near 10 mph and was forecast to turn toward the north over the next two days.

    In Mexico, the government urged people to avoid unnecessary travel in the Yucatan Peninsula and imposed restrictions on coastal shipping.

    About 1,000 people were evacuated from Holbox island northwest of Cancun, an isolated fishing community and sanctuary for thousands of flamingos and other exotic birds.

    In Cancun the airport remained open but there were no plans to evacuate approximately 12,000 people visiting the resort, which is popular with American tourists.

    Ida first became a hurricane on Thursday off the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, where heavy rains forced more than 5,000 people into shelters.

    The country's coffee crop was not directly affected by the storm, according to the local coffee council.

    (Additional reporting by Jose Cortazar in Cancun, Nelson Renteria in San Salvador, Ivan Castro in Managua and Erwin Seba in Houston; Writing by Robert Campbell; Editing by Eric Beech)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:58 PM  
    Hurricane IDA forecast and strike probability
    Sunday, November 8, 2009
    Hurricane IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba
    probability for TS is 90% currently

    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours

    Mexico
    probability for TS is 70% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mobile
    (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

    Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:49 PM  
    CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
    SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
    155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
    510 MILES...815 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
    RIVER.

    IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
    A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
    EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
    IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
    AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
    LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST
    TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
    140 MILES...220 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

    IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
    OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
    POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

    RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
    AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
    MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
    WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
    THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
    INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
    APPALACHIANS.

    A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
    ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
    THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
    WAVES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 600 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
    PM CST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:43 PM  
    Ida kills 91 in El Salvador, heads for U.S. Gulf Coast
    MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Flooding and mudslides triggered by Hurricane Ida's torrential rainfall have killed at least 91 people in El Salvador, and the death toll is expected to rise, the government said Sunday.

    As the storm -- which regained hurricane intensity overnight -- headed through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico, a hurricane watch was issued Sunday for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

    Ida also drenched Nicaragua after making landfall last week as a Category 1 hurricane, then weakened to a tropical storm.

    The U.S. watch -- meaning hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours -- extends from Grand Isle, Louisiana, eastward to Mexico Beach, Florida, forecasters said. It does not include the city of New Orleans, Louisiana, the hurricane center said.

    Track Ida's progress

    The watch prompted Gov. Bobby Jindal to declare a state of emergency in Louisiana. The declaration frees the state's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness to take certain measures to prepare for the storm and deal with it should it hit the state.

    Ida was expected to brush the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday afternoon.

    As of 1 p.m. ET, Ida had reached Category 2 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of near 100 miles per hour (160 kilometers per hour) and higher gusts. Some additional strengthening was possible Sunday, but the storm was expected to weaken on Monday and begin losing tropical characteristics on Tuesday, the hurricane center said.

    The center of Ida was located about 100 miles (155 kilometers) north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 75 miles west of the western tip of Cuba, forecasters said. It was moving northwest at near 10 mph and was expected to increase in speed and turn toward the north-northwest later, then northward by Tuesday.

    "On the forecast track, the center of Ida should move into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and be near the northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday," the hurricane center said.

    Once Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be unfavorable for any additional development, said CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen. Ida is expected to weaken because of a combination of wind shear, cooler water temperatures and the storm's interaction with a strong frontal system pushing off the Gulf Coast, he said.

    However, Ida still could bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast, he said.

    A hurricane warning remained in effect on the Yucatan Peninsula from Playa del Carmen to Cabo Catoche, meaning that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center said. A hurricane watch remained in effect for the peninsula from Tulum to Playa del Carmen.

    A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Yucatan from Punta Allen north to Playa Del Carmen and from Cabo Catoche west to San Felipe, forecasters said. In addition, a tropical storm warning was in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours.

    A tropical storm watch remained in effect for the Isle of Youth, forecasters said.

    Ida could bring between 3 and 5 inches of rain to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, with isolated amounts of 10 inches possible in some spots, forecasters said. In addition, a storm surge could raise water levels by 3 to 4 feet along the coast of the Yucatan, forecasters said. "Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves," the hurricane center said.

    Ida is the Atlantic region's ninth named storm. The Atlantic hurricane season ends November 30.

    cnn
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:35 PM  
    Latest satellite and track images hurricane IDA






    navyNRL/TSR
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:22 PM  
    CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
    CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...HURRICANE WATCH
    ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

    AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
    ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
    NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
    MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
    MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
    PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
    MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
    OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
    CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
    WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
    PINAR DEL RIO.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
    SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
    120 KM...NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...
    WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

    IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
    EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
    LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA
    SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
    TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
    SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
    EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
    CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT
    COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
    140 MILES...220 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

    IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
    OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
    POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

    A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
    ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
    THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
    WAVES.

    ...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...21.2N 86.0W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
    PM CST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:11 PM  
    Hurricane IDA forecast and strike probability
    Hurricane IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours


    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba

    probability for TS is 95% currently

    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cancun
    (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours

    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

    Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:10 PM  
    IDA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... MOVING NORTHWARD
    Saturday, November 7, 2009
    A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
    WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE
    . A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
    PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
    MILES...325 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
    MILES...320 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

    IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
    THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
    EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS
    EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE
    SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
    SUNDAY...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER IT ENTERS THE GULF OF
    MEXICO.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

    IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
    OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
    POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
    OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

    ...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
    LOCATION...18.9N 84.3W
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
    PM EST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:44 PM  
    Latest satellite and track images TS. IDA




    navyNRL/TSR
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:42 PM  
    Tropical Storm IDA forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Storm IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Pinar Del Rio
    (22.4 N, 83.7 W)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:26 PM  
    Storm Slams Vietnam; Thousands Evacuate
    Tuesday, November 3, 2009
    HANOI — Tropical Storm Mirinae slammed into Vietnam's central coast Monday, unleashing heavy rains and winds and forcing more than 80,000 people to evacuate before losing steam as it moved inland.

    The storm was packing winds of 63 miles per hour (102 kilometers per hour) as it made landfall in Phu Yen province Monday afternoon, toppling trees and utility poles and causing blackouts, said Nguyen Ba Loc, deputy chairman of the provincial People's Committee.

    The storm lost force and was downgraded to a tropical depression as it moved deeper inland later Monday, according to the national weather forecast center.

    No deaths were reported, but the weather center warned of possible flash floods and landslides in mountainous districts.

    Mirinae hit the Philippines with typhoon strength over the weekend, killing 20 people before losing strength as it moved across the South China Sea toward Vietnam.

    Both Vietnam and the Philippines are still recovering from Typhoon Ketsana, which brought the Philippine capital of Manila its worst flooding in 40 years when it struck in September. Ketsana killed 160 people in Vietnam.

    In the Philippines, Ketsana and two later storms killed more than 900. Some 87,000 people who fled the storms were still living in temporary shelters when Mirinae struck.

    Mirinae left 20 dead, mostly from drowning, in six Philippine provinces. Four people were missing, disaster response officials said.

    But the storm did not keep the largely Roman Catholic country from paying respects to the dead on Sunday's All Saints Day. Huge crowds jammed cemeteries, with some people visiting still-flooded ones by boat.

    In Rizal province, just east of Manila, villagers carrying flowers and candles paddled canoes into a rural cemetery that resembled a lake.

    Joel Librilla thrust his hands into the waist-high waters to feel the letters on submerged tombstones in search of his mother's grave.

    "We don't know where to light our candles," Librilla told AP Television News. "But my mother should know that this is for her."

    Forecasters said they were watching a low pressure area about 186 miles (300 kilometers) off the eastern coast of the northern Philippines that along with northeastern monsoon winds could bring rain and gale-force winds to the mountainous region.

    Strong winds and huge waves destroyed three fishing boats and overturned about a dozen others off northern Cagayan province early Monday, tossing 39 fishermen to the rough sea, Cagayan disaster official Bonifacio Cuarteros said.

    Most of the fishermen swam back to shore or were rescued by fellow fishermen. One remained missing, Cuarteros said.

    irrawaddy
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:30 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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