| Hurricane IDA forecast and strike probability
| Sunday, November 8, 2009
|Hurricane IDA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
probability for TS is 95% currently
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
Mobile (30.7 N, 88.1 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
|posted by Moderator Londen time 5:10 PM