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  • Tropical Storm PAUL forecast and strike probability
    Monday, March 29, 2010

    Tropical Storm PAUL (22P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
    probability for TS is 85% currently
    Numbulwar (14.5 S, 135.5 E)
    probability for TS is 70% currently
    Nhulunbuy (12.2 S, 136.8 E)
    probability for TS is 60% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:30 PM  
    Tropical Storm PAUL forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm PAUL (22P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
    probability for TS is 65% currently


    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently
    probability for TS is 55% currently

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:00 PM  
    Cyclone Paul to cross NT coast twice
    Sunday, March 28, 2010


    THE cyclone harassing the Territory coast is forecast to go overland and run out of steam today - but then head for water and re-intensify again.

    Cyclone Paul is expected to head west - crossing over land about 95km southwest of Nhulunbuy - early this morning, and be downgraded to a low.

    Weather bureau senior forecaster Angeline Prasad said Paul was expected to head west for a while, then "curve back" to the Gulf of Carpentaria.

    "It's (forecast) to move into the gulf on Wednesday and re-intensify into a cyclone," she said.

    "It's going to continue tracking southeast but then that's basically where we put a full stop because beyond three or four days ... it becomes pure conjecture."

    But Ms Prasad said they could not rule out the ex-cyclone would instead track northwards, hit the Arafura Sea and reform there.

    "It could possibly do that ... that's the reason we've got the warning area all the way to Milingimbi at this stage," she said.

    She said it was unlikely that a reformed Cyclone Paul would then hit Darwin.

    "It'll need to traverse quite a bit of land to get to Darwin," she said.

    Yesterday, the Category One storm squatted almost stationary near Cape Shield, with winds gusting up to 110km/h.

    Ms Prasad said people should be aware that the movement of tropical cyclones could be unpredictable, and that the region was facing "a lot of rain" over the next few days.

    The bureau is warning that heavy rain may cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the eastern Top End and northern Roper-McArthur districts today.

    Last night, coastal and island communities from Milingimbi to Port Roper were on cyclone warning.

    Communities from Milingimbi to Maningrida were on cyclone watch.

    ntnews
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:14 PM  
    Tropical Storm PAUL forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm PAUL (22P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
    probability for TS is 75% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Alyangula (13.9 S, 136.5 E)
    probability for TS is 65% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:08 PM  
    Tropical storm hits Australia
    Monday, March 22, 2010
    A powerful storm lashing across the northeast coast of Australia have torn roofs from buildings, smashed boats into rocks, and cut power and communication lines to tens of thousands of homes and businesses.

    No deaths or injuries were reported as the tropical storm whipped across the popular tourist area that borders the Great Barrier Reef, officials said on Monday.

    Repair crews struggled to restore power supply and phone lines after Cyclone Ului, a Category 3 storm, left a trail of destruction as it blew over Airlie Beach early on Sunday.

    Ului struck with winds of up to 200 kilometres per hour, strong enough to suck the air-conditioning units out of walls.

    Sugar cane fields also felt the full brunt of winds, with growers estimating losses to run into millions of dollars.

    The state government of Queensland has set up a disaster relief fund, and federal aid has also been made available to victims, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation said in a report.

    Resorts along the coastal towns near the Great Barrier Reef were evacuated earlier last week in anticipation of the storm.

    aljazeera
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:32 PM  
    (Final Warning)Tropical Storm ULUI (20P) forecast and strike probability
    Saturday, March 20, 2010

    SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 20 Mar, 2010 18:00 GMT (Final Warning)

    Tropical Storm ULUI (20P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
    probability for TS is 90% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
    probability for TS is 90% currently
    Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
    probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
    probability for TS is 55% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:57 PM  
    Tropical Storm ULUI (20P) forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm ULUI (20P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

    Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:09 PM  
    Tropical Storm ULUI (20P) forecast and strike probability
    Friday, March 19, 2010

    SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Mar, 2010 12:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm ULUI (20P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
    probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
    probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
    probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
    Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:22 PM  
    Tropical Cyclone ULUI (20P) forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Cyclone ULUI (20P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia

    probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
    Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:47 PM  
    Tropical Cyclone ULUI (20P) forecast and strike probability
    Thursday, March 18, 2010
    Tropical Cyclone ULUI (20P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bowen
    (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Mackay (21.3 S, 149.1 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:26 PM  
    Latest satellite images and trackmaps TS ULUI







    TSR/NOAA/Navy NRL
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:28 AM  
    Tropical Cyclone ULUI (20P) forecast and strike probability
    Tropical Cyclone ULUI (20P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:08 AM  
    Latest satellite images and trackmaps TS ULUI
    Wednesday, March 17, 2010






    NOAA/TSR/Navy NRL
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:15 PM  
    Cyclone devastates Fiji
    SUVA — About half the homes and buildings in Fiji’s eastern Lau group of island are believed to have been destroyed or badly damaged by this week’s destructive cyclone, a disaster official said Wednesday.

    "We have received preliminary unconfirmed reports of extensive damage in the Lau group," Fiji’s National Disaster Management Office operations officer Anthony Blake told AFP.

    "We have got reports of at least two villages totally destroyed," he said.

    There have been no confirmed reports of deaths from Lau and residents of at least one of the destroyed villages were able to shelter in caves, Blake said.

    "We are hoping there is no loss of life and all the villagers are okay and we will get emergency supplies to them."

    According to "our estimates based on the worst-case scenarios of the track of the cyclone and what has happened in the north, we suspect at least 50 percent of the Lau group has been severely damaged."

    The Lau group, a string of islands running north to south along Fiji’s eastern edge, is home to about 11,000 people who were close to the centre of the category four cyclone.

    Cyclone Tomas devastated swathes of the north and east of Fiji as it passed over the islands on Monday and Tuesday.

    The west of the second largest island Vanua Levu and the entire main island of Viti Levu were spared the worst of the cyclone, with average wind speeds of 175 kilometres an hour and huge waves caused by storm surges.

    Blake said the scale of the destruction and any further casualties would become clearer Thursday as the results of the first surveys were received.

    Only one death has so far been confirmed — a woman who drowned in rough seas as the cyclone approached at the weekend — but another emergency official said Tuesday there had been unconfirmed reports of "a few" deaths.

    By Wednesday, fewer than 9,000 people remained in evacuation centres throughout the country, down from around 17,000 on Tuesday, Blake said.


    timescolonist
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:35 PM  
    Tourists evacuated from Great Barrier Reef islands
    Hundreds of tourists and residents are being shipped off two islands on Australia's Great Barrier Reef as Cyclone Ului approaches.

    Authorities are rushing to evacuate 260 people from Heron Island and 70 from Lady Elliott Island in preparation for the arrival of the storm.
    Both islands, which lie off the north coast of Queensland, will be completely emptied over the next two days.

    In Rockhampton, the destination for the people evacuated from Heron Island, the local disaster management committee is meeting to ensure the region is prepared.
    The weather bureau expects Cyclone Ului, which is currently listed as a category four cyclone, to cross the coast somewhere between the towns of Bowen and Gladstone on Saturday or Sunday.

    The bureau warned that the cyclone could bring swells of up to 32 feet and potentially destructive winds.
    "It's unknown what will occur, however for safety ... Lady Elliot and Heron Island, they will commence evacuation today," she told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

    She said the evacuation was being carried out early to avoid people being trapped by rough seas.
    The Heron Island Resort said on its website that it would close as a precaution until Saturday, when the situation would be reassessed.
    Brad Carter, Rockhampton Mayor, said that the town's disaster management committee was meeting to ensure that communities were prepared.
    He said a cyclone rated as category three or stronger could cause big problems.
    "One of the issues we have to look at is tidal surge - the impact of the rising sea level in conjunction with wave activity and cyclonic activity," he told the ABC. "A number of parts of our coastline are very exposed."

    While the cyclone is expected to make landfall in the north of the state, the southcoast, including beaches near Brisbane, has been warned to expect large swells.
    The weather bureau has also warned that the heavy rain could cause flooding and that the storm would bring "destructive-type winds".
    The damage could be worse if the storm strengthened into a category five, bureau spokesman Ben Annells said.

    The cyclone is bad news for Queensland's tourism industry, which has been struggling to boost visitors in the wake of the global downturn.
    Australia's northeast was last devastated by a category four storm - the second-highest rating - in 2006, when Cyclone Larry caused damage amounting to an estimated A$500 million (US$321 million) to crops and infrastructure.
    The warnings over Cyclone Ului came days after Fiji suffered overwhelming damage from Cycone Tomas.

    Fiji sent naval patrol boats laden with supplies and support staff sailing for the northern islands that bore the full brunt of the storm, while Australian and New Zealand air force planes began airlifting emergency supplies to the island group.
    Only one death has been reported, but the full extent of the damage has yet to be determined because communications to the hardest hit areas were cut off for days.

    telegraph.co.uk
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:30 PM  
    Cyclones bring living hell
    This week the news has been dominated by severe tropical cyclones Tomas and now Ului.

    See the radar image of Tomas' eye as it passed over Fiji, its quite stunning how perfectly circular it is.

    Often it's the most powerful and dangerous things in life that can be the most stunning...the sun, a volcano erupting, a tornado, huge waves. But it's only been since the 1960s that humans have been able to see the beauty of a hurricane or tropical cyclone. Since satellites have been orbiting earth humans have been fascinated by their beauty and their power. Their magnificent swirls and unique "eye".

    It's a strange thing being fascinated by a tropical storm. You see them out at sea, miles from land, and they just simply look incredible. Infrared maps bring them to life even more...as do the newer satellite images and 3D images taken by NASA that show so much depth rather than just a flat cloud with a hole in the middle. They show clouds taller than mountains swirling at over 300km/h past an eye of clear sky and light winds. This mega storm may only be moving at walking speed overall though. This is what has happened to severe tropical cyclone Ului. A severe category 4 storm yet for two days has only been tracking south at around 4 or 5km/h...slower than a human's walking speed.

    But the beauty of these storms can disappear so very quickly once you realise they are near people. Suddenly, what looks like a piece of art drifting over the blue waters of the Pacific Ocean looks more like an angry giant. The eye of the storm larger than the islands it's about to destroy. Like some sort of prehistoric monster on the hunt.

    That's when the guilt kicks in. The guilt of enjoying something from the safety of my office far, far, away...while there, a living hell is unfolding.

    Winds so loud you can't hear people yelling right next to you.

    Winds so strong you simply can't breathe. Rain so heavy gutters overflow and rivers turn brown with anger. Brick walls blown over. Trees snapped in half. Waves the size of 747s crashing down. Tidal surges bigger than many tsunamis. Worst of all, there is literally no "safe place".

    That's a biggie. Can you imagine not having a safe place? An office building might look strong...but what about being in it with no power, no water and all the windows blown out. Glass and debris screaming past your face at over 300km/h.

    Imagine how strong the wind is on your hand when you place it outside your car window at 100....this is a VERY strong wind. Imagine it three times faster. Imagine you're on an island...surrounded by the angry sea that looks like it will come up and suck you away. There is absolutely no where to run. Some islands have volcanic caves... they are the safest place to be. Can you imagine that though? As a New Zealander? Hiding in a pitch black cave with your family and friends and strangers...hurricane force winds howling at the entrance...wondering if the hill will give way. Wondering if any of your home or pets will survive?

    When out at sea they are spectacular...when they head towards land, they are killers...and suddenly you realise just how small we all are...and how we must all respect the power of nature.

    For all the latest cyclone news see our new Tropics page

    Finally - on the topic of cyclones. A rare tropical cyclone existed this past weekend...the second one ever recorded in history in fact. It was a tropical cyclone recorded in the South Atlantic. The waters are normally too cold here for cyclone development. See the full article here.

    By Philip Duncan
    nzherald
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:26 PM  
    17 Australians missing as Fiji battered by Cyclone Tomas, said AusAID
    THERE were 17 Australians not yet accounted for in the region of Fiji battered by tropical Cyclone Tomas, AusAID said tonight.

    AusAID, The Federal Government's overseas aid program, said 35 Australians known to be in the area had been accounted for and efforts were continuing to contact the others.

    "Thirty-five of the 52 Australians registered in the north are reported as safe and well," AusAID acting director-general Peter Baxter said.

    "But communications are still down in the area and we expect to make contact with the others as the next couple of days progress."

    The category four cyclone ripped through Fiji, "completely destroying" at least two villages in the Lau group of islands, Anthony Blake, relief co-ordinator for Fiji's Disaster Management Office, said. "The people are living in caves at the moment," he said.

    Mr Blake said shelter was "priority one" after preliminary reports indicated Tomas had caused "extensive damage" to the Lau Group in Fiji's east, and the northern island of Cikobia.

    A state of natural disaster was declared on Tuesday after wind peaked at over 200km/h and massive storm surges forced the evacuation of 17,000 people.

    The Australian and New Zealand governments have pledged up to $1 million in emergency help to Fiji.

    heraldsun.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:24 PM  
    Tropical cyclone warning cancelled
    The Tropical Cyclone warning previously in force for the Fiji Group is now being cancelled.

    A strong wind warning remains in force for Southern Lau but is now cancelled for the rest of the Fiji Group.

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas centre was located about 250 km south southeast of Ono i Lau at 7 am today.

    The cyclone is accelerating south southeastward at 31 km/hr and is moving further away from the group.

    On this track, the cyclone centre is expected to be located about 490km south-southeast of Ono i Lau at 1pm today and is moving further away from the group.

    fijivillage
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:20 PM  
    Very Intense TC TOMAS (19P) forecast and strike probability
    Very Intense TC TOMAS (19P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
    probability for TS is 65% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:29 AM  
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE FIJI GROUP IS NOW BEING CANCELLED
    Tuesday, March 16, 2010
    Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTY-TWO for Fiji ON TROPICAL
    CYCLONE TOMAS
    ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 7:40am on Wednesday the 17th of March 2010

    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE FIJI GROUP IS
    NOW BEING CANCELLED.

    A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN LAU BUT IS NOW
    CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
    NEAR 22 DECIMAL 8 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 KM
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 7 AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE
    CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 140 KM/HR WITH
    MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 195KM/HR. THE CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING
    SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KM/HR AND IS MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
    GROUP.

    ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 490
    KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 1PM TODAY AND IS MOVING FURTHER
    AWAY FROM THE GROUP.

    FOR SOUTHERN LAU:
    FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST EASING
    TOMORROW. CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH
    SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

    FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
    MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. CLOUDY WITH
    SOME RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
    TO HEAVY SWELLS.

    The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
    FOR SOUTHERN LAU WATERS, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY
    SWELLS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
    MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS, ESPECIALLY IN
    THE EAST.

    THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS
    AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 162145 UTC.

    met.gov.fj
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:18 PM  
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
    A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU, VATOA AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

    A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 KM SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU AT 2 AM TODAY.

    CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 150 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 215KM/HR.

    THE CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 27 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 280 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 9 AM TODAY AND ABOUT 505 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 3 PM TODAY.

    FOR ONO-I-LAU, VATOA AND NEARBY ISLANDS:

    DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR EASING LATER THIS MORNING.

    PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

    HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

    FOR THE REST OF FIJI:

    FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EASING.

    CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EASING FROM THE NORTH.

    ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

    The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

    STORM FORCE WINDS WITH VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, REDUCING TO 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

    DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

    ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH HEAVY SWELLS.

    fijitimes
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:15 PM  
    Good news for Fiji as Tomas weakens
    Some good news for the people of Fiji as Tropical Cyclone Tomas is now weakening although it is still a Category 4 system.

    The Nadi Weather Office Director Rajendra Prasad said the gale warning for Viti Levu is now lifted and only a strong wind warning remains in place.

    There is an audio file attached to this story. Please login to listen.

    He said Viti Levu has been given the all clear in terms of any damaging winds.

    However, Vanua Levu and parts of Northern Lau are still experiencing damaging winds and this is expected to change by midnight tonight.

    Tomas is currently located in the Lau Group and is moving towards Ono-i-Lau.

    A hurricane warning remains in force for Ono-i-Lau, Vatoa and nearby smaller islands.

    The centre of the cyclone was located about 240 kilometers North North West of Ono-i-Lau or 235 kilometers East South East of Suva at 1pm today.

    It is now moving at 20 kilometers per hour.

    However, people need to be mindful of high and very rough seas which could result in flooding of coastal areas.

    fijivillage
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:11 PM  
    Tomas heads towards the Lau group
    A hurricane warning remains in force for Taveuni, Qamea, Laucala, Naitauba, Yacata, Vanua Balavu, Cicia, Moala, Matuku, Totoya, Kabara, Ono-i-Lau, Nairai, Nayau, Lakeba, Koro, Gau, Batiki and nearby islands.

    A storm warning remains in force for the rest of the Eastern half of Vanua Levu, Rabi, Kioa and nearby islands.

    A gale warning remains in force for Cikobia, the Eastern half of Viti Levu, Beqa, Kadavu, rest of the Lau and Lomaiviti groups.

    A strong wind warning remains in force for the rest of the Fiji group.

    Severe Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Tomas centre was located near 17 decimal 5 South 179 decimal 5 West or about 110 kilometers North West of Lakeba or 230 kilometers East North East of Suva at 7am today.

    Close to its centre the cyclone is estimated to have average winds of 175 kilometers per hour easing to 150 kilometers per hour within the next 18 hours.

    The hurricane is moving South at 15 kilometers per hour.

    For Cikobia, the Eastern half of Viti Levu, Beqa, Kadavu, rest of the Lau and Lomaiviti groups, winds increasing to damaging gale force with average speeds up to 75 kilometers per hour and momentary gusts to 110 kilometers per hour.

    Periods of heavy rain and very rough to high seas are expected as well as damaging heavy swells.

    Flooding including, sea flooding of low-lying areas are expected.

    Nadi Weather Office Director Rajendra Prasad said the only consolation for the Central Division will be that residents will not get hurricane force winds but you will definitely get increased damaging gale force winds later today.

    Prasad said this would happen later today when the eye of the hurricane moves down Lau and is at it's closest point to Eastern Viti Levu.


    He said people need to be mindful of the fact that the radius of the system extends outwards to about 120 kilometres from the eye of the cyclone and areas like the Central Division will be affected by gale force winds.

    fijivillage
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:11 PM  
    Strong winds and damaging swell warnings for Tonga
    Weather Forecast issued from NWFC Fua'amotu at 12:00pm Tuesday 16 March 2010.

    A damaging swell warning is now in force for the northern and western coastal areas of Vava'u, Ha'apai, Tongatapu and 'Eua waters

    A strong wind warning remain in force for all Tonga group.

    Situation:
    Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (Category 4) was located 170km east of Suva, 600km west of Neiafu, 560km northwest of Nuku'alofa at 11:30am today. Close to its centre the cyclone has average wind speed of 95 knots gusting to 110knots easing to 80 knots within the next 18 hours. The cyclone is moving South at 8 knots. Associated cloud bands, strong winds and showers affect the group.

    Forecast to midnight tomorrow for Tonga.
    Moderate to fresh E to NE winds strong and gusty at times over most places. Cloudy with some showers, heavy at times over most places.

    Outlook for Thursday:
    Strong and gusty north to northwest winds over most places, cloudy with some heavy showers.

    Marine Weather Bulletin for Tonga:

    A strong wind warning remains in force for all of Tonga coastal waters.

    Damaging swell warning is now in force for Vava'u, Ha'apai, Tongatapu and 'Eua waters

    Forecast to midnight tomorrow for Vava'u, Ha'apai, Tongatapu and 'Eua coastal waters. East to northeast winds 25/30 knots and up to 45 knots at times today turning North to northwest tomorrow. High seas, with heavy to damaging north swells.

    For the rest of Tonga coastal waters:
    East to northeast winds 25/30 knots and up to 45 at times. Rrough seas. A moderate to heavy east to northeast swell developing.

    Outlook for Thursday:<
    West to northwest winds 25/30 knots gust to 45 knots over most places. High seas. A heavy to damaging southeast swell.

    Tides:
    Low tide: 02:05pm
    High tide: 08:10pm
    The mean sea level pressure recorded at Fua'amotu at 12:00am was 1009.7mb.

    matangitonga
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:07 PM  
    Satellite IR/Sat image ULUI and TOMAS



    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:16 PM  
    Cyclone Ului may close in on coast this weekend
    UPDATE, March 16, 11am: Cyclone Ului is expected to close in on the Queensland coast on Friday and over the weekend, bringing rough seas and big swells.

    The category four cyclone has slowed down as hovers well offshore over the eastern Coral Sea, where it is expected to remain for at least the next few days.

    The latest weather bureau update shows Cyclone Ului about 1310km northeast of Mackay and 1420km east of Cooktown and is moving west-southwest at about 5km/h.
    It poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast and is expected to adopt a more south to southeasterly track tonight, which it should maintain until later in the week.
    Its longer term forecast track is still uncertain but at this stage the most likely scenario is for Severe Tropical Ului to turn in a more west to southwesterly track and move closer to the Queensland coast during Friday and over the weekend.

    Even with the cyclone remaining offshore, rough seas and large swells are expected to develop about the southern Queensland coastline by the weekend.
    A gale warning remains current for the coast between Cooktown and Burnett Heads, with the bureau predicting southeasterly winds of 25/33 knots, gradually increasing to 30/35 knots in open offshore waters late this afternoon or in the evening.
    And there is a strong wind warning from Lockhart River to Cooktown, for southeasterly winds of 25/33 knots between Cape Melville and Cooktown, gradually extending north to Lockhart River during the afternoon.

    cairns.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:36 PM  
    Latest satellite images and trackmaps TS TOMAS




    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:23 PM  
    Latest satellite images and trackmaps TS ULUI




    NOAA/TSR/Navy NRL
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:12 PM  
    Cyclone Ului could move closer to Qld coast

    The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says a category four tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea could get closer to the Queensland coast this weekend.
    Tropical Cyclone Ului is more than 1,300 kilometres north-east of Mackay and moving slowly west-south-west.

    BOM forecaster Ben Annells says there is still uncertainty about how close it will be to the coast.

    "The main effect I guess in the short to medium term will still be the maintenance of those strong to gale force winds along the east coast of Queensland, particularly about the tropical coast intially, and continuing with showers," he said.

    abc
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:55 PM  
    More than 50 homes destroyed by cyclone in Fiji
    SUVA, March 16 (Xinhua) -- Cyclone Tomas has destroyed at least 50 homes and 17,000 people have been evacuated to 240 shelters, Fiji Disaster Management Office said on Tuesday.

    A 30-day state of natural disaster has been declared in the Northern and Eastern divisions as the tropical cyclone swept southwards.

    The Fiji Disaster Management Office said the cyclone, the fourth day over Fiji, was now over central Lau, where people should expect increasing winds.

    Operations manager Anthony Blake said communications are still difficult but at least 50 homes are known to have been destroyed and many more damaged.

    Blake said the declaration of a state of disaster will free up resources for the affected areas, and police, army and other emergency services are being deployed.

    There has been widespread flooding and some roads were closed. Power was also out in most parts of the Northern Division, he added.

    The Fiji interim government has extended a nationwide curfew until Wednesday morning.

    The Category 4 storm, one of the worst cyclones to hit the region in seven years, lashed northern parts of the Pacific island nation on Monday, producing winds of up to 270 km/h. It was reported to have generated waves up to seven meters high off Vanua Levu, damaging the island and cutting power.

    Cyclone Tomas was believed to have claimed one life after a woman was swept out to sea on Friday. Police said the 31-year-old and her relatives were swept out at Namilamila Bay in Vanua Levu after a warning to stay away from the sea was issued.

    By late on Tuesday afternoon the cyclone had passed its closest point to the capital Suva and was starting to move away from the region.

    The full extent of the damage will not be known until communication is restored with the northern islands and until people can inspect their properties.

    The Disaster Management Office said the Central and Western divisions escaped the brunt of the storm.

    The New Zealand government has an Airforce Hercules on stand-by to provide assistance to Fiji. New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully said the plane will head to Fiji as soon as the weather conditions ease.

    He added that Fiji has requested international assistance and New Zealand is working closely with its regional disaster relief partners, France and Australia, on how to best respond.

    Meanwhile, Air New Zealand said it has resumed normal service to Fiji's international airport at Nadi.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:51 PM  
    More than 10,000 evacuated in Fiji cyclone
    Tropical Cyclone Tomas battered Fiji for a second day as more than 10,000 people took shelter in evacuation centres Tuesday throughout the Pacific island nation.

    Torrential rains and winds averaging 175 km an hour generated waves up to seven metres high on the second biggest island Vanua Levu, flooding villages, toppling trees and bringing down power and communication lines, according to reports from the capital, Suva.

    The director of Fiji's disaster management centre, Pajiliai Dobui, said communication had been lost on Vanua Levu and outlying islands including Taveuni and Lau, and the extent of the damage would not be known until Wednesday.

    The category four cyclone, with winds gusting up to 230 km an hour, was reported to be the worst in more than 30 years to hit Fiji.

    Early Tuesday, after an overnight curfew over much of the country was lifted, the eye of the cyclone was about 240 km from Suva.

    It was expected to pass by the main island of Viti Levu. But forecasts said the island would still experience hurricane-force winds and massive seas, and schools and most government offices in the capital remained closed.

    Fiji's international airport at Nadi, on Viti Levu, which was closed Monday, was expected to reopen, and Tourism Fiji said it had not received any reports of tourists being endangered at scores of resorts around the country.

    All resorts were reported to have been on full alert since Friday and were fully stocked with food, water and emergency medical supplies. There was still only one known death, a woman swept out to sea when caught on a beach by huge waves.

    Meanwhile, another cyclone, Ului, which strafed the Solomon Islands Monday in the northern Pacific, was reported to be moving into open waters.

    It still brought wind gusts of more than 200 km an hour, and there were reports of a number of houses being destroyed or damaged on some islands, but there were no reports of casualties, Radio New Zealand International reported.

    sify
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:35 PM  
    Cyclone Ului inches over Solomons, maintaining strength
    The category four cyclone battering the Solomon Islands is moving only slowly from the southern part of the country but is maintaining its strength.

    Transport services in the Solomon Islands have been largely brought to a halt by the destructive conditions of Cyclone Ului which is moving in a west south-west direction at about four knots.

    Reports emerging from the country show the province of Rennel and Bellona has been the worst hit so far with at least ten houses destroyed and crops severely damage
    A spokesman for the Disaster Maagement Office, Julian Makaa, says the people of Rennell and Bellona have been suffering severe weather since Sunday night:
    “We’ve organised for a rapid assessment team to fly over as soon as the weather improves to give us a clear asessment of the damage before we can ascertain how much food needs to get them, but we hope that they would have sweet potatoes and cassava available while they are trying to keep themselves alive during this bad weather.”
    While forecasters said (late Tuesday) that Ului would continue to batter Solomons Islands for another two days, passenger ferries and airlines have reduced their services.

    Communications with outer islands remains poor.

    rnzi
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:29 PM  
    Cyclone in Fiji sparks state of emergency
    he government declared a state of emergency today and ordered troops to launch relief operations in northern regions battered by a powerful cyclone that knocked out power and forced thousands of people to flee into shelters.

    scotsman
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:27 PM  
    Intense Tropical Cyclone TOMAS (19P) forecast and probability strike
    Intense Tropical Cyclone TOMAS (19P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:29 AM  
    Cyclone Ului's eerie link to Larry
    Monday, March 15, 2010
    A CATEGORY 4 cyclone is stalking the Queensland coast just days before the fourth anniversary of cyclone Larry, but forecasters are not panicking.
    Expected to reintensify into a category 5 storm some time this morning, cyclone Ului is tipped to be hovering off the coast south of Mackay by March 20 - the same date that cyclone Larry hit Innisfail in 2006.

    Emergency Management Queensland regional director Wayne Hepple said four EMQ volunteers, flown out to assist residents in the flood-ravaged town of St George, are expected back in Cairns in the next few days, and will be ready if Ului makes landfall in the region.
    "Our preparations at the moment are just making sure every-one is aware of how to use the system properly," he said.

    Weather bureau forecaster Bill O'Connor said he believed the storm would continue to track west before being captured by an upper-level trough sometime today, pushing the system south.
    "It is quite a significant cyclone but no one on the Queensland coast should feel threatened for at least the next three days," Mr O'Connor said.
    "If Plan A is pulled off we expect it to be captured when it is still about 500km off the coast and if that happens then we can expect the weather here will be fine on the weekend with some fresh winds - but it is a bit of a waiting game."

    Yesterday afternoon, the category 4 system was 1400km northeast of Mackay but was expected to reintensify into a category 5 storm by 4am today.
    A strong wind warning for the Queensland coast is expected to remain until at least mid-week with offshore gales expected as Ului drifts closer.
    "We can also expect to see more isolated coastal showers throughout the week, but very little will penetrate into the Tableland," Mr O'Connor said.
    Yesterday, Rennell and nearby Bellona Island experienced winds of up to 116km/h as Ului passed through the Solomon Islands.

    cairns.com
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:58 PM  
    Tomas moves on Lau group with hurricane-force winds

    HURRICANE Tomas, the Category 4 Tropical Cyclone (TC), is on its final 12 hours of intensity, and is currently hammering the Lau Group.

    The eye and core feature of the cyclone with destructive Storm Force to very destructive Hurricane force winds are now moving over Northern Lau Group and are expected to affect Central and Southern Lau later, said director of meteorology, Rajendra Prasad in a brief issued at 9am today.

    The Northern division which has been pounded by hurricane force winds and effects since Sunday evening should now see winds decreasing slowly today with rain easing, he said.

    In the Central division, including the capital city Suva, damaging gale force winds with gusts to 85km/hr can be expected today with periods of rain.

    Mr Prasad said some flash flooding was possible in the Central division but not on a large scale.

    Rakiraki and Sigatoka areas in the Western Division should experience strong to near gale force winds (up to 30knots with gusts to 40 Knots) with periods of rain. The rest of the Western Division would experience some fresh to strong winds (up to 45 km/hr or 25 knots) and occasional rain, he said

    No flooding was expected for the Western division, which includes the majority of the tourism belt.

    The system has maintained a southerly course moving slowly but steadily. However, its speed of movement is picking up slightly now from 10km/hr to 15km/hr. This may increase a little further as the system gets to Southern Lau. A slow southeast curvature in path of Tomas is expected to commence by then, Mr Prasad said.

    He said TC Tomas had reached peak intensity with estimated average winds of 175km/hr (95 knots) and momentary gusts up to 230 km/hr (125 knots) close to the centre with damaging gale force winds extending in a 280km radius (150 nautical miles) from the centre.

    It should maintain this intensity for another 12 hours before commencing a gradual weakening trend. However, it should maintain its CAT 3 Hurricane strength until after leaving Fiji waters.

    fijitimes
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:55 PM  
    Cyclone slowly moving away from Qld coast

    The weather bureau says a category four cyclone in the Coral Sea poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.

    Tropical Cyclone Ului is more than 1,300 kilometres north-east of Mackay in north Queensland and is moving west-south-west at about four kilometres an hour.

    The bureau says there will be increased winds along the Queensland coast.

    But forecaster Ben Annells says it is going to remain offshore for most of the week.

    "It's going to basically come to a virtual halt - it's already doing that at the moment and we're likely to see it adopt a southerly track or movement over the Coral Sea area basically from about tomorrow onwards until later in the week," he said.

    "After that, that's where the computer models have been having some difficult ascertaining what's going to happen."

    Port delays

    With strong winds and high seas creating dangerous conditions, operators of two central Queensland coal terminals say it could be some days before loading can recommence.

    No coal has been loaded from the Dalrymple Bay terminal, south of Mackay, since Saturday.

    A spokesman says the port was due to reopen yesterday but conditions have not improved.

    A spokeswoman for BMA, the operator of the Hay Point terminal, says the port will only reopen when it is safe.

    Preparations

    Meanwhile, Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) acting regional director Wayne Hepple says now is the time to stock up on emergency supplies.

    "Ideally you should have that stuff all squirreled away and all set aside now - maybe some last minute top-ups," he said.

    "Ideally your batteries should have a good little bit of time left on them - just check those last minute things out.

    "We've got a little bit of time before it could even vaguely been in our area.

    "This time of year we very much encourage people to be checking out their house, making sure it's all prepared, making sure their kits are ready.

    "What we do encourage is to make sure that even simple things like making sure your gutters are clear."

    abc.net.au
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:49 PM  
    Cyclone pounds Fiji
    LATEST: As Fiji battens down for one of its worst storms in years, a storm that has already claimed one life, local Neil Harrison says he can do little other than watch the huge swell in what is usually a calm and protected bay.

    Mr Harrison is on Koro Island to the east of the main island of Viti Levu and said conditions after Cyclone Tomas struck in the last 24 hours were "shocking".

    The small island has about 14 villages but Mr Harrison, a Scotsman who has lived there for four years, said because of the high winds and downed trees, he could not get out to check on his neighbours.

    Wind gusts were reaching about 120km and he was thankful he had left his 14 metre, two-masted ketch in a protected harbour Savusavu on Vanua Levu.

    "It is protected anchorage but it took a pretty big hit and all communications are down. I have just heard on the radio all of Savusavu is cut off. It is another thing to worry about."

    Mr Harrison said the bay he was on was very protected unless there was a westerly wind.

    "Right now I am looking at probably two metre waves coming in the bay."

    He said he was unable to check on his neighbours.

    "We can't go anywhere. There are a lot of trees down. I have tried to reach a couple of villages but we can't get hold of anyone."

    Mr Harrison said the eye of the storm was about 150km from Koro Island.

    "God knows what it is like in the middle. If we are 150km from this thing and we are copping what we are getting I really don't know what it is like under the eye. They will be getting twice this."

    He said Fiji had had plenty of warning about the cyclone.

    "We have been watching it for about eight days building up," he said.

    Fiji's military government has extended an overnight curfew through to 5pm today as Hurricane Tomas continues to rage over the islands.

    Military spokesman Neumi Leweni said the curfew covers most of the country except the tourist area in the west which is not feeling the impact of the cyclone.

    Police reported Tamarisi Tabua, 31, was swept away and killed in a sea surge as she was taking part in a cultural ceremony with her family at Labasa, on the small island of Vanua Levu.

    Waves hit her sisters Mereula and Alanieta Evans, nephew Mesake, 10, and niece Fulori, four, and swept them into the bay, the Fiji Times said.

    Alanieta said they would have died if it had not been for her sister. "When she got near to me, she threw my daughter to me then the sea swallowed her."

    Hundreds of Kiwis were among those hunkering down in hotels or evacuation shelters as the storm smashed ashore.

    There are reports that around 10,000 people are now packed into shelters on the islands. All schools and government departments are closed.

    Widespread damage has been reported on many of the outer islands but the main island of Viti Levu has so far escaped relatively unscathed.

    More heavy seas and high winds were expected in the next 24 hours.

    Compounding the weather problems in the region is Tropical Cyclone Ului, which has pounded the Solomon Islands leaving a trail of devastation as winds reached 260kmh, before being downgraded from a maximum class five hurricane.

    Dean Innes, a New Zealand contractor who was installing electricity sub stations in Fiji, said he had moved to a hotel near Suva but conditions were not bad.

    "It really like a bad winter's day in New Zealand.

    "It is coming up over the stone wall, the waves, but it is nothing really."

    In Lami Bay where the hotel was it was gusty and squally but there was little damage, although a boat had caught a rope around its propeller and had hit a restaurant on the waterfront.

    Meanwhile, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (Mfat) has advised New Zealanders in Fiji and the Solomon Islands to follow instructions issued by the local authorities, monitor local media reports and register their details at www.safetravel.govt.nz.

    As flights in and out of Fiji had been suspended due to the cyclone, travellers with immediate plans to travel to Fiji should check with their airline or travel agent, an Mfat spokesperson said.

    There were about 480 New Zealanders registered with the ministry as being in Fiji and around 60 registered as being in Solomon Islands.

    This morning Tomas was 240km east northeast of Suva, and was now passing over the low-lying Lau group.

    Due to the effects of the storm, and problems with communications there were no official damage assessments yet from affected areas.

    New Zealand had received no request for assistance, but stood ready to help the people of Fiji if required, the spokesperson said.

    There have been no reports of injuries from Ului, but there had been some damage to buildings.

    STORMS CONTINUE

    Fiji Tropical Cyclone Centre senior forecaster Matt Boterhoven told Radio New Zealand the cyclone was expected to leave the islands and head to the open ocean in about 24 hours.

    It could be up to 36 hours before sea swells calmed down, he said.

    "That's going to be a real problem for the next day and a half."

    Aid might not be able to reach some damaged islands until Thursday, he said.

    The director of Fiji's disaster management centre, Pajiliai Dobui, said communication has been lost on islands including Taveuni and the Lau group, where the storm was headed.

    Mr Doubi said officials would not know what damage had been caused there until Wednesday.

    stuff.co.nz
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:44 PM  
    36 killed in Madagascar
    ANTANANARIVO, Madagascar – Madagascar's disaster officials say at least 36 people have died and more than 38,000 were made homeless by Tropical Storm Hubert.
    The storm hit the southeast coast of the Indian Ocean island nation on Wednesday.
    Officials also said Monday that many rice plantations, roads and homes have been affected or destroyed by flooding. Disaster officials also say that some evacuation teams cannot reach disaster victims because of flooded roads.
    Madagascar lies off the southeastern coast of Africa and is in the main storm path of the Indian Ocean basin.

    It normally has three or four major cyclones each year. Fame, Ivan and Jokwe killed more than 100 in Madagascar in 2008 and affected 300,000 others.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:39 PM  
    Cyclone warning still in place for Solomons
    cyclone warning is still current for the Solomon Islands of Rennell and Bellona but they did not experience the full force of Cycline Ului as was expected.
    The Category 4 cyclone is moving into open waters to the west, with winds gusting to more than 200km/h on Tuesday morning.

    The National Disaster Management Office says initial reports show more than 10 houses on Rennell have been destroyed or damaged.

    It says the number of home damaged on Bellona is still to be confirmed and a full assessment will not be possible until the weather clears.

    There are also reports some houses on the Weather Coast of Guadalcanal have been washed away.

    There have been no reports of deaths or injuries.

    radionz
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:30 PM  
    Queensland holds its breath as Cyclone Ului tracks parallel with coast
    WEATHER Bureau forecasters predict Cyclone Ului will turn south today, tracking parallel with the Queensland coast.

    But the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has the cyclone easing and veering towards the coast in an area between Fraser Island and Airlie Beach on Friday.

    Ului was situated south of the Solomon Islands yesterday, 1400km northeast of Mackay and moving west-southwest at 7km/h. That is about half its speed of the previous day.

    Forecaster Geoff Doueal said it was common for models to disagree.

    "There's not much (weather conditions) steering this at the moment, so it's a wait and see," he said.

    Ului drifted slowly west yesterday, but its longer-term track remained uncertain.

    With wild weather expected to lash the coast during the next week, the State Government announced nets and shark hook lines would be removed from Gold and Sunshine coast beaches.

    Nets due to go back in the water at Cairns for the start of the northern winter swimming season will remain stored until bad weather passes.

    Tony Ham, manager of Fisheries Queensland shark control program, said gear could come adrift and become a hazard.

    "Gear that is loose in the water can be very dangerous, especially if someone becomes entangled," Mr Ham said.

    "Those who choose to swim should do so only at patrolled beaches."

    Mr Ham also warned that rain might bring bull sharks out of rivers, creeks and canals.

    Environment Department monitoring buoys off Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast measured offshore swells to about 5m yesterday, easing by about 1m from the day before.

    The bureau warned winds might increase to gale force over tropical and central coast waters today due to the cyclone and a Tasman Sea high pressure system.

    Scattered showers will continue in most east coast districts, spilling into inland areas mainly in the afternoon.

    Seqwater spokesman Mike Foster said the combined total of Brisbane's Wivenhoe, Somerset and North Pine dams was 97.4 per cent. Wivenhoe was at 95.9 per cent.

    Toowoomba's dams were at 16.9 per cent.

    Opposition transport spokeswoman Fiona Simpson called on the State Government to make urgent repairs in the flood-ravaged southwest.

    Devastating

    Meanwhile, Fiji was being battered by its worst storm on record today as Cyclone Tomas slammed into the islands.

    Locals said the northern islands were "copping it in a big way".

    The category-four cyclone was about 375km northeast of the capital, Suva, yesterday and was expected to intensify during the next 24 hours. More than 5000 people had been evacuated from their homes.

    Matt Boterhoven, a senior forecaster at the Fiji Meteorological Service, told AAP the island was taking a severe beating.

    "Unfortunately we can't get a lot of reports out of there at this point," Mr Boterhoven said, but he predicted "a lot of rain and flooding".

    The acting director of Fiji's Disaster Management Office, Pajiliai Dobui, said: "Our worry is how devastating the cyclone will be."

    A spokeswoman for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Canberra told AAP the Australian High Commission in Suva would be in contact Australians currently in Fiji.

    Tourism Fiji said Air New Zealand and V-Australia had cancelled all Fiji services until further notice and Air Pacific said it would postpone flights to Fiji out of Auckland, Brisbane and Sydney until today.

    Additional reporting AAP

    heraldsun
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:58 PM  
    Latest satellite image TS TOMAS and ULUI


    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:55 PM  
    Latest images and trackmaps TS ULUI




    TSR/Navy NRL
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:29 PM  
    Latest images and trackmaps TS TOMAS




    TSR/Navy NRL
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:28 PM  
    Very Intense TC TOMAS (19P) forecast and strike probability
    Very Intense TC TOMAS (19P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Fiji

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Naduri
    (16.4 S, 179.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Suva (18.1 S, 178.4 E)
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Tavua (17.4 S, 177.9 E)
    probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nadi (17.8 S, 177.4 E)
    probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:18 PM  
    Australia, Fiji bracing for tropical cyclones
    A tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea in expected to move south over the next two days as it continues to move towards Australia's Queensland coast.

    Tropical Cyclone Ului moved into the Australian tracking area overnight and is currently about 15-hundred kilometres east of Lockhart River on Cape York.

    Forecaster Scott Carpentier says it was downgraded from a category five to a category four cyclone overnight.

    "It's still about 1,500 kilometres away, so it's very difficult to ascertain where it will end up," he said.

    "It's certainly not going to impact anywhere on the Queensland coast within the next few days. It wouldn't be until later on in the week that if it continued on in its westward trajectory that it would impact on the coast.:

    Tropical Cyclone Ului passed by the southern island group of the Solomon Islands overnight.

    Late on Sunday disaster management officials in Solomon Islands were warning people on the islands of Rennell and Bellona to prepare for strong winds.

    Tony Wedd from the Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Service says the category five cyclone is now moving west at around 15 kilometres an hour.

    He says Rennell island was most likely the worst affected.

    "The winds there would be at least gale force or maybe even a little stronger it certainly didn't miss Rennell island by too much," he said.


    Fiji braces for Tomas

    Tropical cyclone Tomas is expected to make landfall late on Monday in the northern islands and provinces of Fiji, where emergency workers have been preparing for the storm.

    A hurricane warning was issued late on Sunday for Cikobia island.

    A storm warning was in force for the eastern Vanua Levu, and nearby smaller islands -- and a gale warning was in force for the rest of Vanua Levu and Taveuni.

    A tropical cyclone alert is in force for the rest of Fiji.

    Disaster management teams have been working for the last few days to make sure residents and medical sentres are ready.

    The category four storm formed on Friday near the French territory of Wallis and Futuna and forecasters say it has intensified, and has winds of up to 230 kilometres an hour.

    radioaustralianews
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:09 PM  
    Hurricane Warning Update
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

    A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, VANUA BALAVU, GAU, CICIA, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, LAKEBA, KABARA, MOALA, MAKOGAI, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

    A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

    A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 8 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 130 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 345 KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 4PM TODAY.

    CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 175 KM/HR INCREASING TO 200 KM/HR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 270 KM/HR . THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT 9 KM/HR.

    ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 55 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 255KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 4 AM TOMORROW MORNING AND ABOUT 80KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LAKEBA OR 225KM EAST OF SUVA AT 4 PM TOMORROW.

    EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, VANUA BALAVU, GAU, CICIA, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, LAKEBA, KABARA, MOALA, MAKOGAI, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS :

    WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 175 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR.
    FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMINAL SEAS.
    DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.
    FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS :

    WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS 130 KM/HR.
    FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
    VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.
    FOR THE REST OF FIJI :

    WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR.
    PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

    VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.
    The following information is provided especially for the mariners:

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS.

    STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS.

    GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH HIGH SEAS.
    STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE 150 MILES OF CENTER.
    VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.
    THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

    fijitimes
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:58 PM  
    Death toll in Madagascar rises to 28
    Antananarivo - A landslide on the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar has swept away several houses in the south-east, raising the death toll from the tropical storm that ravaged part of the island last week to 28.

    A daily newspaper, Les Nouvelles, reported that the landslide had taken place in the district of Mananjary, one of three districts that tropical storm Hubert doused in torrential rain last week. The landslide killed eight people and severely injured seven others.

    The national disaster centre BNGRC said in an update on Monday that more than 20 000 people had been made homeless by the storm.

    iol
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:53 PM  
    Fiji Islands ravaged by Cyclone Tomas
    Cyclone Tomas has caused widespread damage on the northern Fiji Islands. Houses and agricultural crops have been destroyed and around 5,000 people have fled. There is not yet any information on possible casualties.

    The tropical storm reached wind speeds of 175 kilometres per hour. Meteorologists say it will pick up even more speed.

    The Fiji islands are located in the Pacific Ocean to the west of Australia. Schools and government buildings have been closed throughout the country. Tourists have been evacuated and the international air traffic on Fiji airport has been temporarily halted.

    rnw
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:51 PM  
    Latest images and track maps TOMAS
    Sunday, March 14, 2010




    TSR/NAVY NRL
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:25 PM  
    Latest images and track maps ULUI





    TSR/NAVY NRL
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:53 PM  
    Tropical cyclone warning for Solomons
    Tropical Cyclone Ului has intensified overnight as it moves towards Solomon Islands.

    The Fiji meteological service says the storm is packing maximum wind speeds of about 210 kilometres an hour.

    Solomon Islands has issued a tropical storm warning for Rennell and Bellona Islands, and Makira, Guadalcanal, Central and Malaita provinces.

    Brett Harrison from the Queensland weather bureau says storm was upgraded overnight from category three to category five.

    "It does mean that wind speeeds are significantly increased so any areas that will be in the path of the cyclone will receive significant damage," he said.

    "At this stage it's moving towards the south of the Solomon Islands, near Rennell Island, that's the main island in its path."

    The storm is expected to hit Rennell Island in the next twelve to twenty four hours.

    Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Tomas is now expected reach Fiji by Monday afternoon.

    But the Fiji Meteorological Office says conditions will become stormy before then.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:52 PM  
    Warning for Cikobia Island
    A Hurricane Warning is now in force for Cikobia Island with average wind speed of 185km/hr and momentary gusts to 230km/hr.

    A Storm Warning is now in force for eastern half of Vanua Levu, Rabi, Kioa and nearby smaller islands with average wind speed of 90km/hr and momentary gusts to 130km/hr.

    A Gale Warning is now in force for the rest of Vanua Levu, Taveuni, Qamea, Laucala, Eastern coast of Viti Levu, Lomaiviti group, Northern Lau and nearby smaller islands with average wind speed of 75km/hr and momentary gusts to 110km/hr.

    A Tropical Cyclone ALERT is in force for the rest of Fiji with wind speed of 60km/hr and momentary gusts to 110km/hr.

    As at 9.00pm tonight, TC TOMAS [970HPA] [Cat 3] was located near 14 decimal 1 south 179 decimal 6 west or about 290 km North-Northeast of Labasa or about 495km north northeast of Suva.

    Close to its centre the cyclone is estimated to have average winds of 140 km/hr increasing to 165km/hr with momentary gusts up to 230km/hr in the next 12 to 24hours.

    The Cyclone is intensifying and moving south southwest at 10km/hr. On this forecast track, the cyclone centre is expected to be located about 190km north northeast of Labasa or 400km north northeast of Suva at 12 mid day today and about 105km north northeast of Labasa or 315km north northeast of Suva at 12 midnight tonight.

    Flooding to low lying areas is anticipated due to associated heavy rain, including sea flooding of low lying coastal areas from storm surges.

    For mariners, expect hurricane force winds and phenomenal seas.

    People living in areas identified within the path of cyclone must take precautionary measures immediately.


    Fiji Broadcasting Corporation
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:49 PM  
    TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS WARNING!
    HURRICANE WARNING 028 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 14/1848 UTC 2010 UTC.

    TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2 SOUTH
    179.5 WEST AT 141800 UTC.
    POSITION FAIR.
    REPEAT POSITION 15.2S 179.5W AT 141800 UTC.
    CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 06 KNOTS.
    EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 105 KNOTS
    IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
    EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
    EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
    EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

    FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.3S 179.6W AT 150600 UTC.
    AND NEAR 17.6S 179.7W AT 151800 UTC.

    ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
    REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
    OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

    THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 026.

    Tropical Cyclone Tomas is now expected reach Fiji by Monday afternoon.

    But the Fiji Meteorological Office says conditions will become stormy before then.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:44 PM  
    Fiji, Solomon Islands brace for cyclones
    Fiji and the Solomon Islands are bracing for gale-force winds, heavy rain and storm surges as tropical cyclones bear down on both countries.

    Tropical Cyclone Tomas is expected to make landfall in northern Fiji on Monday morning and disaster management officials there have spent the past few days preparing.

    In the Solomon Islands, Tropical Cyclone Ului was expected to hit the islands of Rennell and Bellona on Sunday night.

    Solomons Disaster Management Office spokesman Julian Makaa says the 5,000 people who live on those islands are expecting the worst.

    "We've just been advising people to be prepared and sort themselves out," he said.

    "We have been advising people to stock things up, prepare for the impact. That means saving water, food, basic medicines."

    Ului is generating winds of more than 200 kilometres per hour.

    Bureau of Meteorology spokesman Brett Harrison says Ului was upgraded overnight Saturday from a category three to a category five storm.

    "It does mean that wind speeds are significantly increased, so any areas that will be in the path of the cyclone will receive significant damage," he said.

    "At this stage it's moving towards the south of the Solomon Islands."

    abc
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:49 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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