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  • Tropical Storm AGATHA (01E) forecast and strike probability
    Saturday, May 29, 2010
    Tropical Storm AGATHA (01E) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Guatemala
    probability for TS is 70% within 9 hours
    Mexico
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:57 PM  
    TROPICAL STORM AGATHA
    TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
    800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

    ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE
    SEASON OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...13.1N 93.2W
    ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM...WSW OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
    ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM...W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
    GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
    SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. AGATHA IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
    COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
    SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
    MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
    ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
    COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
    COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
    LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
    AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
    (NOAA)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:56 PM  
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
    500 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

    ...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
    FORMS OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...
    ...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
    GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.9N 93.5W
    ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM...W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
    ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM...W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    AT 5 AM PDT THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE ISSUED A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME
    SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
    SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ALL OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF
    GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
    GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
    STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
    93.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR
    5 MPH...7 KM/HR.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
    48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL LATER TODAY.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
    COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY LATE THIS
    EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

    RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
    MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
    ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
    COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
    (NOAA)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:53 PM  
    Cyclone Laila Hits Indian State Andhra Pradesh
    Thursday, May 20, 2010
    Heavy rains and powerful winds hit the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh earlier today, as Cyclone Laila seriously impacted roads and railways. Winds were recorded at one point at 125 miles per hour.

    The storm surge has of 1.5 to 2 meters has wreaked serious havoc on coastal villages.

    According to the Cyclone Warning Center, the wind and rain could last yet another two days.

    More than 50,000 people had been evacuated in anticipation of Cyclone Laila, with people bracing for the worst storm to hit this region in 14 years.

    In addition to impacting travel, Cyclone Laila has uprooted an unfathomable number of trees and has destroyed power lines in the area.

    Cyclone Laila is just one more in a long line of bizarre natural occurances plaguing different parts of the world in recent months. From earthquakes to massive clouds of volcanic ash, it seems as though almost everywhere we look in the world there are natural forces unleashing.

    I do hope evacuations in the Andhra Pradesh area have prevented any loss of human life, but that remains to be seen once the storm has left the region.

    news.gather
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:07 PM  
    Tropical Storm LAILA (01B) forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm LAILA (01B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 80% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
    probability for TS is 60% currently
    Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for TS is 55% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:22 PM  
    Tropical Storm TWO (02A) forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm TWO (02A) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Somalia
    probability for TS is 65% currently
    Yemen
    probability for TS is 55% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Caluula (11.9 N, 50.9 E)

    probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 3:25 PM  
    Tropical Storm LAILA (01B) forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm LAILA (01B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 90% currently

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
    probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

    Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for TS is 65% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 3:12 PM  
    Severe Cyclonic Storm LAILA (01B) forecastand strike probability
    Wednesday, May 19, 2010

    Severe Cyclonic Storm LAILA (01B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours


    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:05 PM  
    Tropical Storm LAILA forecast and strike probability
    Tuesday, May 18, 2010

    Tropical Storm LAILA (01B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours


    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
    Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)
    probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:25 PM  
    Tropical Storm ONE (01B) forecast strike and strike probability
    Monday, May 17, 2010

    Tropical Storm ONE (01B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
    Kakinada (17.0 N, 82.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Machilipatnam (16.2 N, 81.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Naupada (18.6 N, 84.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Vishakhapatnam (17.8 N, 83.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
    Brahmapur (19.3 N, 84.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:32 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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