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  • BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    Friday, July 23, 2010
    WTNT33 KNHC 232032
    TCPAT3
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
    500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

    ...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...26.2N 81.9W
    ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
    ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
    TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
    PONTCHARTRAIN

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
    YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THE
    DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
    KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
    EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
    THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE
    NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
    STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE
    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
    ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
    ON SATURDAY.

    RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
    LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
    WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
    OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

    STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
    GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
    WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:29 PM  
    Tropical Storm BONNIE (AL03) forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm BONNIE (AL03) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Bahamas
    probability for TS is 85% currently
    the United States
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:03 PM  
    BONNIE NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING
    WTNT33 KNHC 231138
    TCPAT3
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
    800 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

    ...BONNIE NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...24.7N 79.8W
    ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
    ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
    * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
    INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
    WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
    INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
    * THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
    LOUISIANA


    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. BONNIE IS
    MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR.
    THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
    THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
    FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
    MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
    NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO
    SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE BONNIE MOVES OVER
    SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN
    THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
    MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER..

    LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
    1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
    TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
    TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE
    WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

    RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
    1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
    ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

    STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
    2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
    BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
    FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


    $$
    FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
    (NOAA)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:00 PM  
    DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
    Thursday, July 22, 2010
    TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
    615 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

    CORRECTED HEADER TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE

    ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...

    DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
    THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...AND THAT THE
    DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


    SUMMARY OF 615 PM EDT...2215 UTC...INFORMATION
    --------------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.9N 75.4W
    ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF NASSAU
    ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

    $$
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:58 PM  
    Tropical Storm CHANTHU (04W) forecast and strike probability
    Wednesday, July 21, 2010

    Tropical Storm CHANTHU (04W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
    probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:19 PM  
    Tropical Storm CONSON (03W) forecast and strike probability
    Tuesday, July 13, 2010

    Tropical Storm CONSON (03W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

    probability for TS is 75% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
    probability for TS is 75% currently

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:37 PM  
    Typhoon CONSON (03W) forecast and strike probability

    Typhoon CONSON (03W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:57 PM  
    Tropical Storm CONSON (03W) forecast and strike probability
    Monday, July 12, 2010

    Tropical Storm CONSON (03W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 3:22 PM  
    ALEX MOVING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING
    Thursday, July 1, 2010
    TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
    400 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010

    ...ALEX MOVING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
    OCCURRING...


    SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.2N 101.2W
    ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO
    ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST. ALEX IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH
    TERRAIN OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
    ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
    CENTRAL MEXICO. ISOLATED STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
    SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

    ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
    TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
    STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN A SMALL AREA
    INLAND NEAR THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
    SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.


    FORECASTER BLAKE
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:52 PM  
    Tropical Storm ALEX (AL01) forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm ALEX (AL01) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zacatecas (22.8 N, 102.6 W)

    probability for TS is 90% currently
    San Luis Potosi (22.2 N, 101.0 W)
    probability for TS is 80% currently


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:51 PM  
    ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NEAR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO
    TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
    700 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010

    ...ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NEAR THE HIGH
    MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...


    SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...23.8N 99.8W
    ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF CIUDAD VICTORIA MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN
    FERNANDO TO LA CRUZ.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO AND NORTH OF
    RIO SAN FERNANDO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO TO LA CRUZ

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST. ALEX IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...ALEX WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
    TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR
    ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ALEX
    CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. ALEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
    KM...MAINLY TO EAST OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
    ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
    MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

    ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
    INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
    CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREAS AND INLAND NEAR THE CENTER. THESE WINDS WILL
    GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY.

    STORM SURGE...THE STORM TIDE AND WAVES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

    TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
    SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY.



    FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 1:31 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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