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  • AIRCRAFT FINDS FIONA A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
    Tuesday, August 31, 2010
    WTNT33 KNHC 312049
    TCPAT3
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
    500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

    ...AIRCRAFT FINDS FIONA A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
    ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
    * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
    TO 24 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST. FIONA IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
    TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA
    IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
    ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
    COUPLE OF DAYS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.



    FORECASTER BROWN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:18 PM  
    LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    TCPAT2
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

    ...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
    ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
    ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
    ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
    STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
    THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
    AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
    * CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

    INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
    NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
    HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
    EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE
    BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
    INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR
    STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
    UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
    WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
    VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
    LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

    STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
    DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

    RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
    POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
    TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
    MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
    FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


    FORECASTER AVILA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:15 PM  
    CORE OF HURRICANE EARL PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...
    WTNT32 KNHC 311749
    TCPAT2
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    200 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

    ...CORE OF HURRICANE EARL PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W
    ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
    ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

    INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
    PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
    TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN
    ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
    TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
    ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
    THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
    MILES...325 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
    RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
    VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
    LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

    STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
    DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

    RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
    POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
    TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
    MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
    FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


    FORECASTER AVILA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:25 PM  
    Latest satellite images Intense Hurricane EARL


    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:22 PM  
    Latest trackmaps Intense Hurricane EARL



    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:16 PM  
    YELLOW ALERT! Intense Hurricane EARL

    Intense Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Puerto Rico
    probability for TS is 95% currently
    the Virgin Islands

    probability for TS is 70% currently
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    the Dominican Republic
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
    probability for TS is 60% currently
    the Bahamas
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for TS is 95% currently

    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
    probability for TS is 60% currently

    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:59 PM  
    FIONA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH
    WTNT33 KNHC 311437
    TCPAT3
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
    1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

    ...FIONA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...15.9N 55.3W
    ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
    * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF FIONA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
    REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST. FIONA IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
    ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
    CENTER OF FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
    OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
    INVESTIGATE THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
    TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.


    FORECASTER BROWN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:56 PM  
    POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS
    HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

    ...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES WITH 135 MPH WINDS...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.2N 67.9W
    ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
    ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

    INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
    PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN
    TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
    EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
    ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR
    THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
    MILES...325 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
    RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
    INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

    STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
    DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

    RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
    POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
    TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
    MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
    FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


    FORECASTER AVILA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:55 PM  
    Hurricane EARL Position Estimate
    WTNT52 KNHC 310955
    TCEAT2
    HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    600 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

    AT 6 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS ESTIMATED FROM SAN
    JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST
    OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
    RICO.

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:29 PM  
    Latest satellite images Hurricane EARL
    Monday, August 30, 2010

    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:11 PM  
    Latest trackmaps Hurricane EARL


    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:03 PM  
    RED ALERT!!! Typhoon KOMPASU for Okinawa

    Typhoon KOMPASU (08W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:53 PM  
    TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
    500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

    ...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W
    ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    NONE.

    INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
    PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
    ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST. FIONA IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
    THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
    THIS TRACK...FIONA COULD BE NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
    TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    NONE


    FORECASTER BERG
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:50 PM  
    RED ALERT WARNING Hurricane EARL (AL07)

    Intense Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the British Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Puerto Rico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
    probability for TS is 100% currently

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Anguilla
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guadeloupe
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Netherlands Antilles
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    probability for TS is 80% currently
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:46 PM  
    YELLOW ALERT!!! Tropical Storm LIONROCK for China and Taiwan

    Tropical Storm LIONROCK (07W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 48 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:45 PM  
    EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
    HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

    ...EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE
    VIRGIN ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.3N 64.7W
    ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
    FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
    THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
    WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM
    WARNING..AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
    HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE WILL DISCONTINUE THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
    SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC.

    THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE
    HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND
    VIEQUES HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
    ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
    THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
    EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST
    OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
    THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
    STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
    MILES...325 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
    BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER
    WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
    PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
    SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

    STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
    5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE WIND OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 FEET
    ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
    LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

    RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
    ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
    12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
    CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


    FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:41 PM  
    YELLOW ALERT! Tropical Storm NAMTHEUN for Taiwan

    Tropical Storm NAMTHEUN (09W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for TS is 60% currently

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:41 PM  
    Hurricane EARL Position Estimate
    HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    200 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

    AT 2 PM AST THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS ESTIMATED FROM SAN
    JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST
    OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS AND 130 MILES...
    210 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

    FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:32 PM  
    EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    800 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

    ...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.4N 62.9W
    ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF ST. MARTIN
    ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
    * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
    * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
    AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
    TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
    CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
    LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
    AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
    ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
    FORECAST...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
    TODAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
    MILES...280 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
    MPH...67 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
    HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
    LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
    PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
    AND TONIGHT.

    STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
    4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
    LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

    RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
    PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
    ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


    FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:51 PM  
    YELLOW ALERT!!! Tropical Storm LIONROCK for China and Taiwan

    Tropical Storm LIONROCK (07W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:48 PM  
    RED ALERT!!! Typhoon KOMPASU for Okinawa

    Typhoon KOMPASU (08W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office..
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:45 PM  
    Latest satellite images Hurricane EARL
    Sunday, August 29, 2010


    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:59 PM  
    Latest trackmaps Hurricane EARL



    (NOAA/TSR/NAVYNRL)
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:14 PM  
    RED ALERT WARNING Hurricane EARL (AL07)

    Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Antigua and Barbuda
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    Guadeloupe
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Anguilla
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
    the Netherlands Antilles
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours
    the Virgin Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Montserrat
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
    Puerto Rico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:41 PM  
    OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
    HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

    ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
    BARBUDA...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
    ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
    ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
    * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
    * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
    PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
    NEXT 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
    58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
    24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
    TUESDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
    MILES...260 KM.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
    HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
    EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
    SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

    STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
    TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

    RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
    POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


    FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:37 PM  
    DANIELLE REACHES CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY.
    Friday, August 27, 2010
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
    500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

    ...DANIELLE REACHES CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...26.5N 58.7W
    ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SE OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST. DANIELLE IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
    TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
    TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
    CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA
    SATURDAY NIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR
    ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
    MILES...335 KM.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
    BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN
    TO ARRIVE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THESE
    SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE
    WEEKEND. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
    OFFICE.



    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:08 PM  
    Storm leaves 4 dead, 30,000 affected in Mexico, government says
    Wednesday, August 25, 2010
    Mexico City, Mexico (CNN) -- Four people died and at least 30,000 residents were affected in southern Mexico as a result of heavy rain and winds from then-Tropical Storm Frank, which has now intensified into a hurricane, the government-run Notimex news agency said Wednesday.

    The deaths and damage occurred in Oaxaca state, on Mexico's Pacific coast, Notimex said.

    A mudslide in the municipality Totontepec Villa de Morelos killed two farm workers, Notimex said. A mudslide in another part of Oaxaca caused at least six vehicles to drive off Federal Highway 182, leading to another two deaths, the news service said.
    Several rain-swollen rivers -- including the Valle Nacional and the Atoyac -- overflowed their banks, affecting at least 10,000 people and leading to the loss of 4 tons of corn and 50 head of cattle.

    Hundreds of people have been evacuated and placed in temporary shelters, officials said.

    In the nearby state of Tabasco, also in southern Mexico but on the Gulf of Mexico coast, heavy rain has affected 48 localities and nearly 7,700 people, Notimex said.
    Tropical Storm Frank formed Sunday in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico and became the third hurricane of the season Wednesday. It was moving to the west-northwest away from Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:13 PM  
    Hurricane DANIELLE (AL06) forecast and strike probability

    Hurricane DANIELLE (AL06) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 25 Aug, 2010 21:00 GMT

    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:43 PM  
    Hurricane DANIELLE (AL06) forecast and strike probability

    Hurricane DANIELLE (AL06) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:42 PM  
    FRANK MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
    WS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
    200 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2010

    ...FRANK MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.0N 106.3W
    ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. FRANK IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
    IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A REDUCTION IN
    FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. FRANK IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    WIND SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
    OR SO.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
    MILES...110 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    NONE.


    FORECASTER FRANKLIN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:39 PM  
    FRANK PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
    Tuesday, August 24, 2010
    TROPICAL STORM FRANK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
    1100 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010

    ...FRANK PARALLELING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...15.3N 100.5W
    ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
    ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
    STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.5 WEST. FRANK IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A WEST-
    NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO
    THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT
    SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
    DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
    MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
    RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


    FORECASTER PASCH
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:51 AM  
    HURRICANE DANIELLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
    HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
    1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

    ...DANIELLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...15.6N 43.2W
    ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST. DANIELLE IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
    DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
    MILES...140 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    NONE.


    FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:24 AM  
    Tropical Storm MINDULLE forecast and strike probability

    Tropical Storm MINDULLE (06W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 80% currently
    Laos
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
    probability for TS is 80% currently

    Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
    probability for TS is 65% currently


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 6:22 AM  
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