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  • EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    Monday, August 30, 2010
    HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    800 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

    ...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.4N 62.9W
    ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF ST. MARTIN
    ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
    * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
    * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
    AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
    TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
    CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
    LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
    AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR
    ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
    FORECAST...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
    TODAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
    MILES...280 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41
    MPH...67 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 61 MPH...98 KM/HR.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
    HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
    LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
    LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
    PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
    AND TONIGHT.

    STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
    4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
    LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

    RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
    PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
    ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
    LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


    FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 2:51 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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