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  • LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    Tuesday, August 31, 2010
    TCPAT2
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

    ...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
    ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
    ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
    ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
    STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
    THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
    AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
    * CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

    INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
    NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
    HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
    EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE
    BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
    INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR
    STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
    UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
    WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
    VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
    LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

    STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
    DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
    ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

    RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
    POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
    TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
    MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
    FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


    FORECASTER AVILA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:15 PM  
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