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  • OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
    Sunday, August 29, 2010
    HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

    ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
    BARBUDA...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
    ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
    ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
    * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
    * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
    PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
    NEXT 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
    58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
    24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
    FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
    HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
    48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
    TUESDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
    MILES...260 KM.

    THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
    HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
    EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
    SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

    STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
    TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
    ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

    RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
    POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
    RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


    FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 7:37 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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