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  • IGOR WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL LARGE AND DANGEROUS... ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
    Saturday, September 18, 2010
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
    500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010

    ...IGOR WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL LARGE AND DANGEROUS...
    ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...27.1N 64.3W
    ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BERMUDA

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
    IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON
    SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR
    OR OVER BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
    WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
    ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO
    REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA.

    HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
    345 MILES...555 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES...
    130 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IGOR...RECENTLY REPORTED A
    SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...AND A GUST OF 76 MPH...
    122 KM/HR.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
    EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
    EVENING.

    RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

    STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
    SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
    SOUTHERN COAST.

    SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
    STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN
    THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
    HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
    DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
    RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
    OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


    FORECASTER BEVEN
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:17 PM  
    RED ALERT!!! Typhoon FANAPI (12W) for Taiwan

    Typhoon FANAPI (12W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours

    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    China

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours

    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours

    probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours

    probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Quanzhou (25.0 N, 118.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

    Putian (25.6 N, 119.0 E)
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    Fuzhou (26.1 N, 119.3 E)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 10:13 PM  
    RED ALERT!!! Hurricane IGOR (AL11) for Bermuda

    Hurricane IGOR (AL11) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours


    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
    probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 93 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:56 PM  
    HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MEXICAN GULF COAST...
    Thursday, September 16, 2010
    HURRICANE KARL ADVISORY

    ...KARL BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
    MEXICAN GULF COAST...


    SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.7N 92.8W
    ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
    ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF
    COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
    GULF COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ...AND FOR THE
    GULF COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
    * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
    36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
    PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
    THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
    ...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. KARL IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
    TRACK...THE CENTER OF KARL WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
    MEXICO TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
    COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

    REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
    THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
    LIKELY...AND KARL COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
    THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
    MILES...110 KM.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
    983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
    AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
    COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
    NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
    DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

    WIND...WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
    LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

    RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
    TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICAN GULF COAST
    REGION...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
    INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
    FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.



    FORECASTER BEVEN
    NOAA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:31 PM  
    YELLOW ALERT!!! Typhoon FANAPI (12W) for Taiwan

    Typhoon FANAPI (12W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    China
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Taipei (25.0 N, 121.5 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
    Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
    probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:26 PM  
    YELLOW ALERT!!! Intense Hurricane IGOR (AL11) for Bermuda

    Intense Hurricane IGOR (AL11) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Bermuda
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hamilton (32.3 N, 64.8 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:23 PM  
    RED ALERT!!! Hurricane KARL (AL13) for Mexico

    Hurricane KARL (AL13) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuxpan (21.0 N, 97.4 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Veracruz (19.2 N, 96.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
    Tampico (22.2 N, 97.8 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:17 PM  
    RED ALERT!!! Intense Hurricane EARL for the United States
    Thursday, September 2, 2010

    Intense Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Canada

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours

    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

    Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
    probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
    probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
    probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
    probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
    probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

    Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
    Portland (43.5 N, 70.4 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

    Hartford (41.5 N, 72.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

    Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours
    Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 4:29 PM  
    Latest trackmaps Hurricane EARL
    Wednesday, September 1, 2010


    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:04 PM  
    Latest satellite images Hurricane EARL



    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:04 PM  
    YELLOW ALERT!!! Tropical Storm FIONA

    Tropical Storm FIONA (AL08) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Antigua and Barbuda
    probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    Anguilla
    probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Guadeloupe
    probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    St. Kitts and Nevis
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    Montserrat
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours
    the British Virgin Islands
    probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours
    the Netherlands Antilles
    probability for TS is 55% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:46 PM  
    RED ALERT!!! Typhoon KOMPASU for South Korea

    Typhoon KOMPASU (08W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    South Korea
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    North Korea
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kunsan (36.0 N, 126.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Mokpo (34.9 N, 126.4 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Sariwon (38.5 N, 125.8 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Seoul (37.5 N, 126.9 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Cheju (33.5 N, 126.5 E)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    P'yongyang (39.0 N, 125.8 E)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Ch'ungju (36.6 N, 127.5 E)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Hamhung (39.9 N, 127.6 E)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:41 PM  
    YELLOW ALERT!!! Tropical Storm LIONROCK

    Tropical Storm LIONROCK (07W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China

    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)
    probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

    Zhangzhou (24.5 N, 117.8 E)
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours


    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:38 PM  
    FIONA PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    WTNT33 KNHC 011440
    TCPAT3
    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
    1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010

    ...FIONA PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.8N 61.7W
    ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF BARBUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
    * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST. FIONA IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
    IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
    DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY. ON THE
    FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF FIONA SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
    DAY OR SO...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
    KM...MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

    RAINFALL...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
    1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER
    PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:29 PM  
    LARGE HURRICANE EARL THREATENS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED
    WTNT32 KNHC 011455
    TCPAT2
    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
    1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

    ...LARGE HURRICANE EARL THREATENS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
    COAST...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.1N 72.1W
    ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
    ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
    STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
    CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
    SOUNDS.

    THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND NOW EXTENDS FROM
    THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE HENLOPEN
    DELAWARE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF
    BOGUE INLET.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
    CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
    SOUNDS.

    A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
    DELAWARE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
    * FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
    36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
    PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
    AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
    BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
    WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
    DANGEROUS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
    THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
    THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
    METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
    THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
    CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
    TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
    THURSDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
    SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
    DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

    EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
    TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
    WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...MAINLY IN GUSTS OVER
    SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

    STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
    LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
    HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
    ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

    RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
    MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
    EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

    SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
    SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
    LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


    FORECASTER AVILA
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:26 PM  
    RED ALERT!!! Intense Hurricane EARL

    Intense Hurricane EARL (AL07) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the United States
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours

    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)

    probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)
    probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 69 hours
    Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
    probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
    Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
    Hartford (41.5 N, 72.7 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Portland (43.5 N, 70.4 W)
    probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 93 hours
    probability for TS is 45% in about 93 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 5:25 PM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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