Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the Philippines

probability for TS is 80% currently China probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours Hong Kong probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours

Macau probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Yunxiao (23.9 N, 117.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the Philippines probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% currently probability for TS is 85% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) China probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Hong Kong probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Super Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the Philippines probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) China probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Hong Kong probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Super Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the Philippines probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Typhoon MEGI (15W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) China probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances