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  • RED ALERT FOR INDIA Severe Cyclonic Storm JAL (05B)
    Sunday, November 7, 2010

    Severe Cyclonic Storm JAL (05B) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    India
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

    Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Madras (13.1 N, 80.2 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours


    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Nellore (14.4 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours

    Kavali (15.0 N, 80.0 E)
    probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

    Pondicherry (11.9 N, 79.8 E)
    probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours


    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Severe Cyclonic Storm strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 12:47 PM  
    TOMAS HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...
    Friday, November 5, 2010
    HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 29
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
    500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

    ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT TOMAS HAS BECOME A
    HURRICANE...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...18.1N 74.9W
    ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
    ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * HAITI
    * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * JAMAICA
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
    BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
    COMPLETE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
    NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
    NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
    TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
    WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
    OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL PASS
    NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA
    TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
    CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
    THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
    POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING ON
    SATURDAY.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
    MILES...220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
    CENTER.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
    REPORTS IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
    AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
    ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
    COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
    SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING TODAY.

    RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
    WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
    COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
    MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
    ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
    TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 11:34 AM  
    RED ALERT FOR HAITI, BAHAMAS and the TURK & CAICOS ISLANDS

    Hurricane TOMAS (AL21) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Haiti
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 100% currently
    the Bahamas
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    the Turks & Caicos Islands
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Cuba
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 9 hours
    probability for TS is 95% within 9 hours
    the Dominican Republic
    probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
    probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
    Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)
    probability for TS is 65% within 9 hours

    Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 9:14 AM  
    Latest satellite and track images "TOMAS"







    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:17 AM  
    YELLOW ALERT!!! FOR HAITI Tropical Storm TOMAS (AL21)

    Tropical Storm TOMAS (AL21) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Haiti
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours
    the Bahamas
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
    Cuba
    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
    probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

    Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

    For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

    This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:16 AM  
    TOMAS APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING
    TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
    200 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

    ...TOMAS APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
    APPROACHING...


    SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...17.9N 75.3W
    ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM WSW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * HAITI
    * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * JAMAICA
    * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
    BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
    SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
    HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
    COMPLETE.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
    NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
    PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST. TOMAS IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN
    TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
    OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS
    WILL PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME
    EASTERN CUBA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
    THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR
    ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
    THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

    TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
    220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
    AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
    ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
    COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
    SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

    WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN HAITI.
    HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
    WARNING TODAY.

    RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
    OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
    WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
    COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
    MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
    ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
    TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

    $$
    FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
    posted by Moderator Image Hosted by ImageShack.us Londen time 8:11 AM  
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    The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances

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