| probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
Tropical Storm VANIA (05P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours probability for TS is 95% currently
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.