Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours probability for TS is 85% currently

Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E) probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E) probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours Pannawonica (21.8 S, 116.3 E) probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Note that Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Intense Tropical Cyclone ATU (17P) :RED ALERT FOR VANUATU AND LENAKEL

Intense Tropical Cyclone ATU (17P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Vanuatu probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% currently Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E) probability for TS is 95% currently Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E) probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S): YELLOW ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E)

probability for TS is 55% within 12 hours

Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S): YELLOW ALERT FOR AUSTRALIA

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Tropical Storm CARLOS (15S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for TS is 80% currently Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Broome (18.0 S, 122.2 E) probability for TS is 80% currently Lagrange (18.7 S, 121.8 E) probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours Roebourne (20.8 S, 117.2 E) probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours Port Hedland (20.4 S, 118.6 E) probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours Onslow (21.7 S, 115.0 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours Exmouth (22.0 S, 114.2 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours Cardabia (23.0 S, 113.9 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Very Intense TC ATU (17P) :RED ALERT FOR VANUATU and LENAKEL

Very Intense TC ATU (17P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Vanuatu probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% currently Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) New Caledonia probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E) probability for TS is 100% currently Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E) probability for TS is 100% currently Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E) probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR: Tropical storm "Yasi" second most damaging Australian cyclone on record

Thursday, February 3, 2011

According to TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) Cyclone Yasi will be the second most damaging Australian cyclone on record after cyclone Tracy which struck Darwin in 1974.

"Based on Yasi's immediate post-event windfield and TSR's new high resolution loss model we are looking at a total insured damage bill of about A$ 3.5 billion" said Professor Mark Saunders, the TSR Director.

Yasi made landfall near to Mission Beach in northeast Queensland at around 14:00 GMT on 2 February (00:00 GMT on 3 February local time) with peak 3-sec gusts of about 170 mph. Yasi is the most powerful cyclone to strike the east coast of Australia since 1918.

The immediate post-event peak gust windfield for Yasi as modelled by TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) is shown in the attached image. This shows that peak gusts of at least 100 mph affected a coastal extent of 100 miles stretching from just south of Cairns to Ingham. Gusts exceeding 100mph also extended over 100 miles inland.

Fortunately the major cities of Cairns and Townsville were largely spared significant damage; otherwise the insured loss from Yasi may have rivalled that from cyclone Tracy. (TSR)

Tropical Storm YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Mount Isa (20.8 S, 139.5 E) probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Cyclone Yasi has crossed the northern Queensland coastline, the storm which is roughly three times larger than the UK has crossed onto land and is making its presence felt.

Rick Threlfall, spokesman for the Bureau of Meteorology says that the category five cyclone is producing winds up to 280 km per hour. The worst is being felt around the mission beach area where the eye of the storm is expected to cross onto land today.

“The real core strength of the winds will be in the eye wall,” he said. The storm is currently measured at roughly 500km wide with the eye of the storm roughly 35km in diameter but the strongest and most destructive wind is directly around the eye.

“So people in that Mission Beach area anywhere between Innisfail and about Cardwell will be starting to feel winds potentially up to that level well in the next few minutes.”

Townsville is being hit hard with trees being ripped from the ground, windows being shattered and roofing being blown away. Wil Kemp, a resident of Castle Hill said,

“The rain doesn’t fall, it just comes in horizontally as the wind goes roaring past.”

Thousands have been evacuated from the cyclone’s path but many were either too late or unwilling to leave. Those who have remained have been advised to board up windows and stay sheltered, those living on low ground have been advised to move to higher ground to avoid the estimated 5 metre storm surge which is expected to engulf many low lying areas.

Very Intense TC YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% currently Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently probability for TS is 100% currently Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% currently Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E) probability for TS is 100% currently Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% currently Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E) probability for TS is 100% currently Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E) probability for TS is 100% currently Hughenden (20.9 S, 144.2 E) probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E) probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours Mount Isa (20.8 S, 139.5 E) probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours Burketown (17.7 S, 139.4 E) probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

(CNN) -- Australians braced Wednesday as a massive, powerful cyclone neared the already flood-ravaged northern state of Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Yasi had strengthened to a Category 5, the highest designation on Australia's cyclone classification system, and was predicted to make landfall near midnight (9 a.m. ET) Wednesday.

"I have all my rations ready to go, batteries, candles," said Carl Butcher, who lives in the coastal city of Cairns in Queensland state. "The authorities have been very proactive in informing us about this system. We have known about it for a week. That is more than enough time to prepare for it."

More than 20 people died and thousands of homes were wrecked when severe flooding hit Queensland in January, affecting 3.1 million people.

Lachlan Brown, from Townsville, told CNN he was currently experiencing the calm before the storm.

"The street lights have been going on and off. We lost power a couple of times and it's come back on. There's quite a few boats in the creek next to us tied to jetties, but they're moving around a lot so I don't know how long they're going to last." Carly Wallace, who lives near Cairns, said she'd been stocking up on food and water. "There's always panic buying when it comes to cyclones -- everyone goes a little bit crazy. But with this one, because of how big it is, everyone's going out buying everything," the Atherton Tablelands resident said.

Wallace said grocery store shelves were empty in the town of Atherton. "Nearly everything was gone off the shelf, even long-life milk and things like batteries and tape. There was no bread at all. So everyone is panic-buying but I think it's for good reason."

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi has winds of 230 kph (143 mph) and maximum wind gusts of 300 kph (186 mph), and is expected to maintain that intensity until making landfall, forecasters said. CNN Meteorologist Jennifer Delgado said there will be heavy rain in Queensland and the rain could continue until Friday.

Queensland is no stranger to cyclones. Many residents of the state had to take shelter last March when Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Ului barreled in. But that storm will not compare to the strength that Tropical Cyclone Yasi packs.

Queensland Deputy Police Commissioner Ian Stewart warned the state faces "one of the most significant weather events" in its history.

"This is a life-threatening storm, and people need to understand that they have a final window of opportunity to self-evacuate," Stewart said earlier. The state's premier, Anna Bligh, has urged residents in the threatened areas to take sensible precautions and to stay inside once the storm hits.

The cyclone threatens more devastation for Queensland, which already has been hit by deadly flooding in recent weeks.

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced a one-off flood tax aimed at helping to pay for the estimated AUS $5.6 billion (US $5.58 billion) damage caused. "It's all deserted, has been for quite a few hours. There's quite a few trees down and some powerlines.

Very Intense TC YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% within 12 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E) probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E) probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E) probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours Hughenden (20.9 S, 144.2 E) probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E) probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours Mount Isa (20.8 S, 139.5 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E) probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Very Intense TC YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E) probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours Hughenden (20.9 S, 144.2 E) probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E) probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours Normanton (17.8 S, 141.0 E) probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours Mount Isa (20.8 S, 139.5 E) probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Intense tropical cyclone Yasi is forecast to strike Australia as a very intense tropical cyclone at about 12:00 GMT on 2 February.Data supplied by theUS Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfallwill benear17.2 S,146.4 E.Yasi is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around212 km/h (132 mph).Wind gusts in the area maybeconsiderably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofYasi'sstrength (category 4)at landfall includes:

Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal. Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.

Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles). There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance,Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges thesupport of the UK Met Office.

Intense Tropical Cyclone YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E) probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E) probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E) probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Intense Tropical Cyclone YASI (11P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s) Australia probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Red Alert City(s) and Town(s) Cairns (16.9 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Innisfail (17.5 S, 146.0 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Tully (17.8 S, 145.8 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Port Douglas (16.4 S, 145.3 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s) Ingham (18.5 S, 146.1 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours Townsville (19.2 S, 146.8 E) probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours Cooktown (15.4 S, 145.1 E) probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours probability for TS is 80% in about 48 hours Charters Towers (20.0 S, 146.3 E) probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours Bowen (20.0 S, 148.2 E) probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability. Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability. CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained. TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

The tropical cyclone data presented at this site are intended to convey only general information on current storms and must not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property: the data may not be accurate. If you are in the path of a storm you should be listening to official information sources. These data have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances