| RED ALERT!!!: Hurricane IRENE (AL09) for the United States |
| Saturday, August 27, 2011 |
Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s): Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Canada
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Greenland
probability for TS is 70% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours
Sept-Iles (50.3 N, 66.4 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
Goose Bay (53.3 N, 60.3 W)
probability for TS is 95% in about 69 hours
Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours
Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)
probability for TS is 85% currently
Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)
probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
Quebec (46.8 N, 71.2 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)
probability for TS is 60% currently
Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)
probability for TS is 55% currently
Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. |
posted by moderator  Londen time 11:22 PM |
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